SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few
tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally
severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central
U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of
the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on
Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates
eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen
across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from
central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south
of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will
contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon.
Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front
will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and
to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during
the late afternoon and early evening.
NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday
across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some
areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with
0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development.
The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is
forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable
low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few
tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells.
Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of
producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to
late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across
central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri
Valley.
...Central High Plains...
A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will
heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As
temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is
expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the
lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate
instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution,
which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this
convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday
afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have
0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8
to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the
more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central
Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the
Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the
lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of
region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to
develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward
into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon.
Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be
sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 06/16/2025
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