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WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW COD TO 40 E LWT TO 30 SW GGW. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-019-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-071-075-079-083- 085-087-091-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-160340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE WYC033-160340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN Read more

WW 418 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 152015Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and eastern Montana North central Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon while spreading eastward from the higher terrain. The storm environment initially favors supercells with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter), while upscale growth into clusters is expected this evening with an increasing threat for 60-80 mph outflow winds. Favorable storm interactions could also support an isolated tornado or two this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Harlowton MT to 10 miles east northeast of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 657 FOPZ14 KNHC 160233 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 262 WTPZ44 KNHC 160234 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is no longer producing organized deep convection and has become a remnant low. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on Dalila. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, based on recent Dvorak estimates and the UW-CIMSS AIDT. The remnant low has continued on a west-northwestward heading during the past few hours, but a turn westward is still expected tonight. The cyclone will should then continue westward for another day or so while slowly spinning down over cool waters. Most models indicate that Dalila will dissipate entirely in about 2 days. The NHC forecast track for the remnant low has been shifted northward slightly with this advisory, but otherwise the forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 521 WTPZ24 KNHC 160233 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 109.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DALILA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 522 WTPZ34 KNHC 160233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 109.2W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 109.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west is expected tonight, followed by continued westward motion for another day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Dalila is forecast to dissipate late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Dalila. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.6, -109.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CVS TO 30 W CVS TO 55 WSW CAO TO 20 WSW DHT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-160340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CVS TO 30 W CVS TO 55 WSW CAO TO 20 WSW DHT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-160340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CVS TO 30 W CVS TO 55 WSW CAO TO 20 WSW DHT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-160340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CVS TO 30 W CVS TO 55 WSW CAO TO 20 WSW DHT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-160340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CVS TO 30 W CVS TO 55 WSW CAO TO 20 WSW DHT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-160340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 419 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 152215Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A couple of thunderstorm clusters will continue to intensify this afternoon and likely persist well into the evening across the Watch area. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard but isolated large hail may accompany the stronger cellular storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Raton NM to 40 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1308 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...far northwest Kansas...and much of western Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420... Valid 160054Z - 160230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms continue this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat in the short-term with the wind threat becoming the predominant severe threat later this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle and far northeast Colorado this evening. These thunderstorms continue to grow upscale into a linear MCS as they move east. Coincident with this, several estimated/measured wind reports greater than 60 mph have been reported across the Nebraska Panhandle within the last 90 minutes, including a measured 62 mph gust at the 3 WNW Brownson, NE mesonet site in Cheyenne County. Recent radar trends suggest increasing westerly flow beginning to impinge upon the thunderstorms across Morrill and Cheyenne counties, which may increase the potential for bowing structures over the next 1-2 hours. The environment ahead of these storms is increasingly unstable as the storms approach the instability axis where most-unstable CAPE ranging from about 2000 J/kg across southern portions of the area to in excess of 5000 J/kg across the northern portion. Given effective-layer shear greater than 30 knots, the combination of instability and shear will support intense thunderstorm updrafts through the evening. Additional intense/severe thunderstorms have developed across portions of Cherry County. Given the more discrete nature of these storms, large hail will likely be the main threat. These storms will likely begin to weaken with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Marsh.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41020402 43010403 43000021 42070015 42080027 40710020 40700081 39560073 39560141 39140139 39120205 39020206 39030315 39570317 39560365 40000368 40000413 40540414 40560358 41000361 41020402 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming and western half of South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160027Z - 160200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will continue to develop this evening across Wyoming before spreading east into South Dakota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed shortly. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity this evening across portions of northeast Wyoming. This appears to be in response to increased ascent from the approaching shortwave trough and a strongly buoyant and sheared atmosphere. (This evening's observed Rapid City, SD, sounding has nearly 2700 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE and 35 knots of effective-layer shear.) Thunderstorms will continue to intensify and increase in number this evening within this environment. With time, expectation is to develop one or more clusters/bowing segments that should move east-northeast out of Wyoming and into western South Dakota. After this, guidance is split as to whether these potential bowing segments remain discrete or interact/merge with potential MCSs across both North Dakota (from the Montana thunderstorms within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #418) and southern South Dakota/northern Nebraska (associated with a potential MCS within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #420). Damaging winds and large hail will be possible initially, with a tendency to favor an increasing wind threat with time. ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 42630493 43110634 44800545 45840222 45089987 43170051 42630493 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1307 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419... FOR EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...eastern NM into southwest TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419... Valid 160030Z - 160200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may persist another few hours, mainly across eastern NM. Sporadic large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible across WW 419. DISCUSSION...Isolated severe thunderstorms continue this evening, mainly across east-central NM where inhibition is lowest and MLCAPE is maximized. Moderate northwesterly shear will likely aid in maintaining sporadic stronger updrafts for at least another 1-2 hours, with hail to 1.75 inch diameter noted within the last 30-45 minutes near De Baca County. Some clustering/consolidation of updrafts along merging outflow could also result in locally damaging gusts over the next hour. Convection should gradually weaken after about 02z as inhibition continues to increase with the loss of daytime heating. A weak low-level jet response should preclude development of an eastward propagating cluster downstream into parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains, though some stronger convection could approach the east-central NM/TX border before storms weaken by mid-evening. ..Leitman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 37010298 32120225 31080324 31000443 31350483 33530512 36020506 37010507 37010298 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more