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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0421 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0421 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MRF TO 35 WNW HOB TO 45 ENE ROW TO 60 N ROW TO 25 NNE 4CR. ..LEITMAN..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC007-009-011-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-059-160140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION TXC003-079-165-301-389-475-495-501-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS COCHRAN GAINES LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MRF TO 35 WNW HOB TO 45 ENE ROW TO 60 N ROW TO 25 NNE 4CR. ..LEITMAN..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC007-009-011-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-059-160140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION TXC003-079-165-301-389-475-495-501-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS COCHRAN GAINES LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW 3HT TO 60 SE HVR. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-011-017-019-021-025-027-033-037-045-055-065-069-071- 075-079-083-085-087-091-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-160140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE WYC033-160140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW 3HT TO 60 SE HVR. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-011-017-019-021-025-027-033-037-045-055-065-069-071- 075-079-083-085-087-091-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-160140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE WYC033-160140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1305 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418... Valid 152253Z - 160030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will continue to increase this afternoon. With time an evolution to one or more lines of thunderstorms should occur, bringing with it an increasing threat of damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Several clusters of ongoing thunderstorms are present across the region this afternoon, with reports of damaging winds and measured severe hail of 1 inch in Cascade County. The large-scale environment in which these storms are developing is strongly sheared and very buoyant, with effective-layer shear on the order of 50 knots and mixed-layer CAPE between 1500 and 3000 J/kg. This will continue the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough moves across the region. With time thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more clusters that will move east through the evening hours. As this happens a transition to an increasing wind threat should occur. ..Marsh.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 45191020 46651030 47041108 46901172 47301206 47501201 47701145 48151139 48141080 48321055 48310985 48120954 48990945 48990406 44990405 44980598 44550599 44550734 44720773 44970789 44980825 45190810 45220864 45590878 45570909 45470919 45410950 45170970 45191020 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin a few
hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 1305 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418... Valid 152253Z - 160030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will continue to increase this afternoon. With time an evolution to one or more lines of thunderstorms should occur, bringing with it an increasing threat of damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Several clusters of ongoing thunderstorms are present across the region this afternoon, with reports of damaging winds and measured severe hail of 1 inch in Cascade County. The large-scale environment in which these storms are developing is strongly sheared and very buoyant, with effective-layer shear on the order of 50 knots and mixed-layer CAPE between 1500 and 3000 J/kg. This will continue the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough moves across the region. With time thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more clusters that will move east through the evening hours. As this happens a transition to an increasing wind threat should occur. ..Marsh.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 45191020 46651030 47041108 46901172 47301206 47501201 47701145 48151139 48141080 48321055 48310985 48120954 48990945 48990406 44990405 44980598 44550599 44550734 44720773 44970789 44980825 45190810 45220864 45590878 45570909 45470919 45410950 45170970 45191020 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 15 22:48:09 UTC 2025.

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more