Aggregator

...DALILA'S OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 15:00 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 the center of Dalila was located near 16.5, -104.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

MD 1283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern Kansas...north central and northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141233Z - 141430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe wind gusts may continue with thunderstorm outflow overspreading the central Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity during the next couple of hours. But this seems likely to diminish, as thunderstorms begin to weaken, while approaching the Greater Tulsa vicinity toward mid to late morning. DISCUSSION...The more intense thunderstorm development is being maintained above the stronger leading edge of the consolidated convective cold pool, now east and southeast of the Great Bend and Medicine Lodge KS vicinities, where 2 hourly surface pressure rises as high as 3+ mb have recently been observed. A swath of rear inflow on the order of 40-60+ kt has been evident in radar data, mostly in the 2-5 km AGL layer, but measured surface gusts appear to have mostly remained below severe limits. This has been propagating southeastward around 30 kt, and could approach the Tulsa OK vicinity by 15-16Z. However, due to the potential stabilizing impacts of downstream convection on the southeasterly updraft inflow, it remains unclear how much longer vigorous convective development will be maintained. As this weakens, the risk for strong to severe wind gusts is likely to subsequently diminish as well. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 36619853 36859924 37009833 37589793 38219782 38219673 37389545 36589574 36069685 36419779 36619853 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Compared to yesterday, mid-level heights are generally forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly today as upper ridging gradually builds over the southern/central Rockies. Even so, modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will remain over the northern/central High Plains today, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. Daytime heating of this airmass should foster moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. High-based thunderstorms should once again develop over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies by late afternoon, before spreading eastward over the High Plains this evening. Even though low-level winds are forecast to remain generally modest, veering and gradual strengthening of the flow with height through mid/upper levels should support around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger across the northern High Plains). Supercells that become established will have mainly a large to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail threat, with any eventual clusters posing more of a severe wind risk with eastward extent through the evening. A separate area of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms is also apparent across parts of the Upper Midwest (IA vicinity) along/near a surface boundary. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak, moderate instability may still support occasional hail and gusty downdraft winds with any of the more robust cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ongoing convective clusters and cells this morning across southern KS and northern OK are being aided by weak southwesterly low-level warm/moist advection. With generally weak deep-layer shear present, the overall severe threat has remained generally isolated (reference Mesoscale Discussion 1283 for additional details on the short-term severe risk across south-central KS/northern OK). Still, steep lapse rates aloft (per area 12Z soundings) are contributing to substantial MUCAPE, which may support an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts through the morning hours as these thunderstorms spread generally east-southeastward along an instability gradient/surface front. It remains unclear how far east the ongoing cluster in southern KS may persist, with some guidance suggesting it may restrengthen into parts of western/central AR this afternoon. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds eastward across this area. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for additional convection to develop along/near the trailing outflow from this morning activity across northern/central OK into south-central KS and vicinity. It appears likely that moderate to strong instability will be in place by late afternoon as diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass occurs along and south of the outflow boundary. But, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will remain weak for much of the day, with modest low-level warm advection forecast to gradually strengthen through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms which can develop in this rather favorable thermodynamic environment could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. But, confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities at this time. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon/evening across parts of the southern High Plains along/east of a surface lee trough/dryline, although forcing aloft will remain nebulous beneath upper ridging. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southeast and OH Valley today, eventually reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic by late tonight. A stalled surface boundary is located across parts of northern VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula this morning. This boundary is expected to move little through the day, and will likely serve as a focus for convection later this afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially develop around 20-22Z over the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the I-95 corridor in VA/DC/MD through the early evening. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that even with poor lapse rates aloft, sufficient instability and modest deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the surface boundary to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph and perhaps some marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cores through the evening, until they eventually weaken with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Compared to yesterday, mid-level heights are generally forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly today as upper ridging gradually builds over the southern/central Rockies. Even so, modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will remain over the northern/central High Plains today, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. Daytime heating of this airmass should foster moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. High-based thunderstorms should once again develop over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies by late afternoon, before spreading eastward over the High Plains this evening. Even though low-level winds are forecast to remain generally modest, veering and gradual strengthening of the flow with height through mid/upper levels should support around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger across the northern High Plains). Supercells that become established will have mainly a large to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail threat, with any eventual clusters posing more of a severe wind risk with eastward extent through the evening. A separate area of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms is also apparent across parts of the Upper Midwest (IA vicinity) along/near a surface boundary. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak, moderate instability may still support occasional hail and gusty downdraft winds with any of the more robust cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ongoing convective clusters and cells this morning across southern KS and northern OK are being aided by weak southwesterly low-level warm/moist advection. With generally weak deep-layer shear present, the overall severe threat has remained generally isolated (reference Mesoscale Discussion 1283 for additional details on the short-term severe risk across south-central KS/northern OK). Still, steep lapse rates aloft (per area 12Z soundings) are contributing to substantial MUCAPE, which may support an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts through the morning hours as these thunderstorms spread generally east-southeastward along an instability gradient/surface front. It remains unclear how far east the ongoing cluster in southern KS may persist, with some guidance suggesting it may restrengthen into parts of western/central AR this afternoon. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds eastward across this area. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for additional convection to develop along/near the trailing outflow from this morning activity across northern/central OK into south-central KS and vicinity. It appears likely that moderate to strong instability will be in place by late afternoon as diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass occurs along and south of the outflow boundary. But, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will remain weak for much of the day, with modest low-level warm advection forecast to gradually strengthen through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms which can develop in this rather favorable thermodynamic environment could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. But, confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities at this time. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon/evening across parts of the southern High Plains along/east of a surface lee trough/dryline, although forcing aloft will remain nebulous beneath upper ridging. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southeast and OH Valley today, eventually reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic by late tonight. A stalled surface boundary is located across parts of northern VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula this morning. This boundary is expected to move little through the day, and will likely serve as a focus for convection later this afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially develop around 20-22Z over the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the I-95 corridor in VA/DC/MD through the early evening. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that even with poor lapse rates aloft, sufficient instability and modest deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the surface boundary to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph and perhaps some marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cores through the evening, until they eventually weaken with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Compared to yesterday, mid-level heights are generally forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly today as upper ridging gradually builds over the southern/central Rockies. Even so, modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will remain over the northern/central High Plains today, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. Daytime heating of this airmass should foster moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. High-based thunderstorms should once again develop over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies by late afternoon, before spreading eastward over the High Plains this evening. Even though low-level winds are forecast to remain generally modest, veering and gradual strengthening of the flow with height through mid/upper levels should support around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger across the northern High Plains). Supercells that become established will have mainly a large to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail threat, with any eventual clusters posing more of a severe wind risk with eastward extent through the evening. A separate area of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms is also apparent across parts of the Upper Midwest (IA vicinity) along/near a surface boundary. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak, moderate instability may still support occasional hail and gusty downdraft winds with any of the more robust cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ongoing convective clusters and cells this morning across southern KS and northern OK are being aided by weak southwesterly low-level warm/moist advection. With generally weak deep-layer shear present, the overall severe threat has remained generally isolated (reference Mesoscale Discussion 1283 for additional details on the short-term severe risk across south-central KS/northern OK). Still, steep lapse rates aloft (per area 12Z soundings) are contributing to substantial MUCAPE, which may support an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts through the morning hours as these thunderstorms spread generally east-southeastward along an instability gradient/surface front. It remains unclear how far east the ongoing cluster in southern KS may persist, with some guidance suggesting it may restrengthen into parts of western/central AR this afternoon. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds eastward across this area. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for additional convection to develop along/near the trailing outflow from this morning activity across northern/central OK into south-central KS and vicinity. It appears likely that moderate to strong instability will be in place by late afternoon as diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass occurs along and south of the outflow boundary. But, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will remain weak for much of the day, with modest low-level warm advection forecast to gradually strengthen through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms which can develop in this rather favorable thermodynamic environment could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. But, confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities at this time. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon/evening across parts of the southern High Plains along/east of a surface lee trough/dryline, although forcing aloft will remain nebulous beneath upper ridging. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southeast and OH Valley today, eventually reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic by late tonight. A stalled surface boundary is located across parts of northern VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula this morning. This boundary is expected to move little through the day, and will likely serve as a focus for convection later this afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially develop around 20-22Z over the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the I-95 corridor in VA/DC/MD through the early evening. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that even with poor lapse rates aloft, sufficient instability and modest deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the surface boundary to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph and perhaps some marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cores through the evening, until they eventually weaken with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Compared to yesterday, mid-level heights are generally forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly today as upper ridging gradually builds over the southern/central Rockies. Even so, modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will remain over the northern/central High Plains today, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. Daytime heating of this airmass should foster moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. High-based thunderstorms should once again develop over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies by late afternoon, before spreading eastward over the High Plains this evening. Even though low-level winds are forecast to remain generally modest, veering and gradual strengthening of the flow with height through mid/upper levels should support around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger across the northern High Plains). Supercells that become established will have mainly a large to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail threat, with any eventual clusters posing more of a severe wind risk with eastward extent through the evening. A separate area of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms is also apparent across parts of the Upper Midwest (IA vicinity) along/near a surface boundary. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak, moderate instability may still support occasional hail and gusty downdraft winds with any of the more robust cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ongoing convective clusters and cells this morning across southern KS and northern OK are being aided by weak southwesterly low-level warm/moist advection. With generally weak deep-layer shear present, the overall severe threat has remained generally isolated (reference Mesoscale Discussion 1283 for additional details on the short-term severe risk across south-central KS/northern OK). Still, steep lapse rates aloft (per area 12Z soundings) are contributing to substantial MUCAPE, which may support an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts through the morning hours as these thunderstorms spread generally east-southeastward along an instability gradient/surface front. It remains unclear how far east the ongoing cluster in southern KS may persist, with some guidance suggesting it may restrengthen into parts of western/central AR this afternoon. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds eastward across this area. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for additional convection to develop along/near the trailing outflow from this morning activity across northern/central OK into south-central KS and vicinity. It appears likely that moderate to strong instability will be in place by late afternoon as diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass occurs along and south of the outflow boundary. But, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will remain weak for much of the day, with modest low-level warm advection forecast to gradually strengthen through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms which can develop in this rather favorable thermodynamic environment could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. But, confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities at this time. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon/evening across parts of the southern High Plains along/east of a surface lee trough/dryline, although forcing aloft will remain nebulous beneath upper ridging. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southeast and OH Valley today, eventually reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic by late tonight. A stalled surface boundary is located across parts of northern VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula this morning. This boundary is expected to move little through the day, and will likely serve as a focus for convection later this afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially develop around 20-22Z over the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the I-95 corridor in VA/DC/MD through the early evening. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that even with poor lapse rates aloft, sufficient instability and modest deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the surface boundary to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph and perhaps some marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cores through the evening, until they eventually weaken with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Compared to yesterday, mid-level heights are generally forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly today as upper ridging gradually builds over the southern/central Rockies. Even so, modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will remain over the northern/central High Plains today, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. Daytime heating of this airmass should foster moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. High-based thunderstorms should once again develop over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies by late afternoon, before spreading eastward over the High Plains this evening. Even though low-level winds are forecast to remain generally modest, veering and gradual strengthening of the flow with height through mid/upper levels should support around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger across the northern High Plains). Supercells that become established will have mainly a large to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail threat, with any eventual clusters posing more of a severe wind risk with eastward extent through the evening. A separate area of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms is also apparent across parts of the Upper Midwest (IA vicinity) along/near a surface boundary. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak, moderate instability may still support occasional hail and gusty downdraft winds with any of the more robust cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ongoing convective clusters and cells this morning across southern KS and northern OK are being aided by weak southwesterly low-level warm/moist advection. With generally weak deep-layer shear present, the overall severe threat has remained generally isolated (reference Mesoscale Discussion 1283 for additional details on the short-term severe risk across south-central KS/northern OK). Still, steep lapse rates aloft (per area 12Z soundings) are contributing to substantial MUCAPE, which may support an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts through the morning hours as these thunderstorms spread generally east-southeastward along an instability gradient/surface front. It remains unclear how far east the ongoing cluster in southern KS may persist, with some guidance suggesting it may restrengthen into parts of western/central AR this afternoon. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds eastward across this area. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for additional convection to develop along/near the trailing outflow from this morning activity across northern/central OK into south-central KS and vicinity. It appears likely that moderate to strong instability will be in place by late afternoon as diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass occurs along and south of the outflow boundary. But, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will remain weak for much of the day, with modest low-level warm advection forecast to gradually strengthen through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms which can develop in this rather favorable thermodynamic environment could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. But, confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities at this time. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon/evening across parts of the southern High Plains along/east of a surface lee trough/dryline, although forcing aloft will remain nebulous beneath upper ridging. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southeast and OH Valley today, eventually reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic by late tonight. A stalled surface boundary is located across parts of northern VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula this morning. This boundary is expected to move little through the day, and will likely serve as a focus for convection later this afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially develop around 20-22Z over the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the I-95 corridor in VA/DC/MD through the early evening. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that even with poor lapse rates aloft, sufficient instability and modest deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the surface boundary to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph and perhaps some marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cores through the evening, until they eventually weaken with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Compared to yesterday, mid-level heights are generally forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly today as upper ridging gradually builds over the southern/central Rockies. Even so, modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will remain over the northern/central High Plains today, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. Daytime heating of this airmass should foster moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. High-based thunderstorms should once again develop over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies by late afternoon, before spreading eastward over the High Plains this evening. Even though low-level winds are forecast to remain generally modest, veering and gradual strengthening of the flow with height through mid/upper levels should support around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger across the northern High Plains). Supercells that become established will have mainly a large to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail threat, with any eventual clusters posing more of a severe wind risk with eastward extent through the evening. A separate area of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms is also apparent across parts of the Upper Midwest (IA vicinity) along/near a surface boundary. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak, moderate instability may still support occasional hail and gusty downdraft winds with any of the more robust cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ongoing convective clusters and cells this morning across southern KS and northern OK are being aided by weak southwesterly low-level warm/moist advection. With generally weak deep-layer shear present, the overall severe threat has remained generally isolated (reference Mesoscale Discussion 1283 for additional details on the short-term severe risk across south-central KS/northern OK). Still, steep lapse rates aloft (per area 12Z soundings) are contributing to substantial MUCAPE, which may support an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts through the morning hours as these thunderstorms spread generally east-southeastward along an instability gradient/surface front. It remains unclear how far east the ongoing cluster in southern KS may persist, with some guidance suggesting it may restrengthen into parts of western/central AR this afternoon. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds eastward across this area. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for additional convection to develop along/near the trailing outflow from this morning activity across northern/central OK into south-central KS and vicinity. It appears likely that moderate to strong instability will be in place by late afternoon as diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass occurs along and south of the outflow boundary. But, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will remain weak for much of the day, with modest low-level warm advection forecast to gradually strengthen through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms which can develop in this rather favorable thermodynamic environment could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. But, confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities at this time. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon/evening across parts of the southern High Plains along/east of a surface lee trough/dryline, although forcing aloft will remain nebulous beneath upper ridging. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southeast and OH Valley today, eventually reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic by late tonight. A stalled surface boundary is located across parts of northern VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula this morning. This boundary is expected to move little through the day, and will likely serve as a focus for convection later this afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially develop around 20-22Z over the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the I-95 corridor in VA/DC/MD through the early evening. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that even with poor lapse rates aloft, sufficient instability and modest deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the surface boundary to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph and perhaps some marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cores through the evening, until they eventually weaken with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Compared to yesterday, mid-level heights are generally forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly today as upper ridging gradually builds over the southern/central Rockies. Even so, modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will remain over the northern/central High Plains today, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. Daytime heating of this airmass should foster moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. High-based thunderstorms should once again develop over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies by late afternoon, before spreading eastward over the High Plains this evening. Even though low-level winds are forecast to remain generally modest, veering and gradual strengthening of the flow with height through mid/upper levels should support around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger across the northern High Plains). Supercells that become established will have mainly a large to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail threat, with any eventual clusters posing more of a severe wind risk with eastward extent through the evening. A separate area of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms is also apparent across parts of the Upper Midwest (IA vicinity) along/near a surface boundary. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak, moderate instability may still support occasional hail and gusty downdraft winds with any of the more robust cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ongoing convective clusters and cells this morning across southern KS and northern OK are being aided by weak southwesterly low-level warm/moist advection. With generally weak deep-layer shear present, the overall severe threat has remained generally isolated (reference Mesoscale Discussion 1283 for additional details on the short-term severe risk across south-central KS/northern OK). Still, steep lapse rates aloft (per area 12Z soundings) are contributing to substantial MUCAPE, which may support an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts through the morning hours as these thunderstorms spread generally east-southeastward along an instability gradient/surface front. It remains unclear how far east the ongoing cluster in southern KS may persist, with some guidance suggesting it may restrengthen into parts of western/central AR this afternoon. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds eastward across this area. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for additional convection to develop along/near the trailing outflow from this morning activity across northern/central OK into south-central KS and vicinity. It appears likely that moderate to strong instability will be in place by late afternoon as diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass occurs along and south of the outflow boundary. But, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will remain weak for much of the day, with modest low-level warm advection forecast to gradually strengthen through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms which can develop in this rather favorable thermodynamic environment could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. But, confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities at this time. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon/evening across parts of the southern High Plains along/east of a surface lee trough/dryline, although forcing aloft will remain nebulous beneath upper ridging. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southeast and OH Valley today, eventually reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic by late tonight. A stalled surface boundary is located across parts of northern VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula this morning. This boundary is expected to move little through the day, and will likely serve as a focus for convection later this afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially develop around 20-22Z over the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the I-95 corridor in VA/DC/MD through the early evening. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that even with poor lapse rates aloft, sufficient instability and modest deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the surface boundary to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph and perhaps some marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cores through the evening, until they eventually weaken with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/14/2025 Read more

715
ABPZ20 KNHC 141148
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, has
formed just off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of the low, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while moving
westward or west-northwestward just offshore the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 600 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 070 WTPZ34 KNHC 141144 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 600 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...OUTER BANDS OF DALILA IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 104.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 104.3 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...OUTER BANDS OF DALILA IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Sat Jun 14 the center of Dalila was located near 16.1, -104.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:22:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:22:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:22:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the High Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into northern Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that storms should become organized. Supercells and short intense line segments will be possible, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the central states on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along and near much of the instability axis, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough and its associated cold front, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most likely from parts of southern New England southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty due to the issues of frontal timing and instability magnitude. From Friday into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Although a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across the north-central U.S., large scale ascent should be weak across most of the region. For this reason, predictability is low concerning any potential severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the High Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into northern Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that storms should become organized. Supercells and short intense line segments will be possible, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the central states on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along and near much of the instability axis, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough and its associated cold front, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most likely from parts of southern New England southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty due to the issues of frontal timing and instability magnitude. From Friday into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Although a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across the north-central U.S., large scale ascent should be weak across most of the region. For this reason, predictability is low concerning any potential severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the High Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into northern Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that storms should become organized. Supercells and short intense line segments will be possible, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the central states on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along and near much of the instability axis, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough and its associated cold front, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most likely from parts of southern New England southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty due to the issues of frontal timing and instability magnitude. From Friday into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Although a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across the north-central U.S., large scale ascent should be weak across most of the region. For this reason, predictability is low concerning any potential severe threat. Read more