Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW IML TO 20 SW MCK TO 40 W EAR. ..KERR..06/14/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-199-140740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC065-073-145-140740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FURNAS GOSPER RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more