SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E WEY TO 80 NE BIL TO 70 WSW GGW TO 65 ESE HVR TO 70 NE HVR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 ..DEAN..06/14/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-033-071-075-079-087-103-105-111-140340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER GARFIELD PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD TREASURE VALLEY YELLOWSTONE WYC033-140340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411

2 months 1 week ago
WW 411 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 131900Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and southeast Montana North central Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected this afternoon into central Montana and storms will spread eastward through late evening. Large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter will be a primary threat, along with thunderstorm outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. There is also a low threat for an isolated tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north of Lewistown MT to 60 miles south southeast of Billings MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW AKO TO 35 NW CDR TO 40 NNE CPR. ..SUPINIE..06/14/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...LBF...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-121-125-140240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA NEC013-033-045-049-069-123-140240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN MORRILL SDC047-140240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FALL RIVER Read more

SPC MD 1278

2 months 1 week ago
MD 1278 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Areas affected...parts of western Nebraska...northeast Colorado...and northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 140102Z - 140200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Clusters of storms may produce a threat for severe gusts and perhaps some large hail. A watch downstream of WW412 may be needed. DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing across parts of western Nebraska, which has produced occasional severe/damaging gusts and large hail. Ahead of the convection, surface mixing ratios are near 15 g/kg per mesoanalysis, and short-term model guidance suggests a seasonably modest nocturnal low-level jet ought to reinforce convection despite the loss of daytime heating. Wave clouds in visible satellite suggests some lingering surface stability across parts of central Nebraska. However, based on the 21Z LBF RAOB with 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, this can easily be overcome by a well-developed cold pool. These suggest that damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms. With the more isolated cells, some large hail is possible, though storms are expected to continue to cluster with time, so this may limit the longevity of the hail threat. Additionally, the duration of the severe threat in the northern part of this region is uncertain, with convection approaching stable air north of a stationary boundary. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41100322 42810335 43200350 43320300 43220230 42930106 42150053 40620005 39120027 38360156 38490289 39040336 41100322 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE HLN TO 55 ESE HVR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279 ..DEAN..06/14/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-033-037-065-069-071-075-079-087-095-097-103- 111-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE YELLOWSTONE WYC033-140240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across much of the High Plains from southeast Montana into northwest Texas. Hail and wind remain the primary concern. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max is currently translating across the northern Rockies and this feature should suppress the height field across western/northern MT as the evening progresses. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave and this activity will propagate across southeastern MT over the next several hours. Farther south across eastern WY/CO, high-level diffluent flow is contributing to scattered robust convection where moist southeasterly low-level flow has persisted, and is currently contributing to a corridor of moderate-strong instability. Some increase in the LLJ across the central High Plains may enhance the longevity of this convection, though deep-layer flow is somewhat lacking. More isolated strong/severe convection is also noted along the NM/TX border. These storms will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for some hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 411 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 ..DEAN..06/13/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-007-009-013-015-017-027-031-033-037-041-045-051-059- 065-067-069-071-075-079-087-095-097-103-107-111-132340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE BROADWATER CARBON CASCADE CHOUTEAU CUSTER FERGUS GALLATIN GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JUDITH BASIN LIBERTY MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC033-132340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN Read more

SPC MD 1277

2 months 1 week ago
MD 1277 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico...the western Texas Panhandle...and Texas South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132337Z - 140030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Clusters of multicell storms may produce severe gusts across parts of eastern New Mexico, the western Texas Panhandle, and Texas South Plains this evening. A watch may be needed to cover this threat. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing over eastern New Mexico. These storms are in an environment characterized by large boundary layer dewpoint depressions and large DCAPE (1800+ J/kg). Relatively weak deep layer shear (15-25 kts effective bulk shear) explains the current clusters of multicells storm mode, and this is expected to be maintained through the evening. Storms are already producing strong cold pools given the observations of fine lines on the KFDX radar. This leads to the primary threat from these storms being severe gusts. Some hail is also possible given that all the buoyancy is above the freezing level, though weak deep-layer shear may limit large hail production. Convective intensity should be maintained into the evening before gradually waning as storms move to the southeast into the early overnight period. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35250440 36390357 36500271 36020171 35090103 33680112 32540162 32080273 32450396 33370445 33990451 35250440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more