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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments required for this update. ...Lower MS River Valley... Wind probabilities have been trimmed behind a broken line of convection spreading eastward into far eastern MS. Behind this line, an expansive cold pool/convective overturning has sufficiently reduced buoyancy to limit the potential for additional severe convection. Ahead of the cold pool to the northeast, the convective environment remains supportive of at least an isolated wind threat (see MCD #1272 for additional details). ...Southern High Plains... Wind probabilities have been expanded westward closer to the higher terrain across NM. Early attempts at sustained convection are ongoing from south-central CO into southern NM per latest visible imagery. Although moisture quality immediately off the terrain remains very limited (dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s), deep boundary-layer mixing denoted by 40-50 F dewpoint depressions may promote downdraft accelerations with an attendant severe wind risk. The past several HRRR/RRFS solutions have consistently shown a signal for at least sporadic severe gusts with this early convection. Severe gusts should become more probable with eastward extent later this evening as convection migrates into the deeper moisture along the NM/TX border. ...Central Oklahoma to western Arkansas... Early-morning convection has largely eroded across OK and far western AR; however, surface observations and visible imagery reveal a residual outflow boundary/differential heating zone draped from north-central OK to western AR. Some building cumulus is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 80s within a very moist air mass. The KSRX and KINX VWPs continue to sample 30-35 knot mid-level flow, which may be sufficient for organized cells if convection can develop along this boundary later this afternoon/evening. Additionally, increasing isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb late tonight may support additional thunderstorms across OK. ..Moore.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments required for this update. ...Lower MS River Valley... Wind probabilities have been trimmed behind a broken line of convection spreading eastward into far eastern MS. Behind this line, an expansive cold pool/convective overturning has sufficiently reduced buoyancy to limit the potential for additional severe convection. Ahead of the cold pool to the northeast, the convective environment remains supportive of at least an isolated wind threat (see MCD #1272 for additional details). ...Southern High Plains... Wind probabilities have been expanded westward closer to the higher terrain across NM. Early attempts at sustained convection are ongoing from south-central CO into southern NM per latest visible imagery. Although moisture quality immediately off the terrain remains very limited (dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s), deep boundary-layer mixing denoted by 40-50 F dewpoint depressions may promote downdraft accelerations with an attendant severe wind risk. The past several HRRR/RRFS solutions have consistently shown a signal for at least sporadic severe gusts with this early convection. Severe gusts should become more probable with eastward extent later this evening as convection migrates into the deeper moisture along the NM/TX border. ...Central Oklahoma to western Arkansas... Early-morning convection has largely eroded across OK and far western AR; however, surface observations and visible imagery reveal a residual outflow boundary/differential heating zone draped from north-central OK to western AR. Some building cumulus is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 80s within a very moist air mass. The KSRX and KINX VWPs continue to sample 30-35 knot mid-level flow, which may be sufficient for organized cells if convection can develop along this boundary later this afternoon/evening. Additionally, increasing isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb late tonight may support additional thunderstorms across OK. ..Moore.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments required for this update. ...Lower MS River Valley... Wind probabilities have been trimmed behind a broken line of convection spreading eastward into far eastern MS. Behind this line, an expansive cold pool/convective overturning has sufficiently reduced buoyancy to limit the potential for additional severe convection. Ahead of the cold pool to the northeast, the convective environment remains supportive of at least an isolated wind threat (see MCD #1272 for additional details). ...Southern High Plains... Wind probabilities have been expanded westward closer to the higher terrain across NM. Early attempts at sustained convection are ongoing from south-central CO into southern NM per latest visible imagery. Although moisture quality immediately off the terrain remains very limited (dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s), deep boundary-layer mixing denoted by 40-50 F dewpoint depressions may promote downdraft accelerations with an attendant severe wind risk. The past several HRRR/RRFS solutions have consistently shown a signal for at least sporadic severe gusts with this early convection. Severe gusts should become more probable with eastward extent later this evening as convection migrates into the deeper moisture along the NM/TX border. ...Central Oklahoma to western Arkansas... Early-morning convection has largely eroded across OK and far western AR; however, surface observations and visible imagery reveal a residual outflow boundary/differential heating zone draped from north-central OK to western AR. Some building cumulus is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 80s within a very moist air mass. The KSRX and KINX VWPs continue to sample 30-35 knot mid-level flow, which may be sufficient for organized cells if convection can develop along this boundary later this afternoon/evening. Additionally, increasing isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb late tonight may support additional thunderstorms across OK. ..Moore.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments required for this update. ...Lower MS River Valley... Wind probabilities have been trimmed behind a broken line of convection spreading eastward into far eastern MS. Behind this line, an expansive cold pool/convective overturning has sufficiently reduced buoyancy to limit the potential for additional severe convection. Ahead of the cold pool to the northeast, the convective environment remains supportive of at least an isolated wind threat (see MCD #1272 for additional details). ...Southern High Plains... Wind probabilities have been expanded westward closer to the higher terrain across NM. Early attempts at sustained convection are ongoing from south-central CO into southern NM per latest visible imagery. Although moisture quality immediately off the terrain remains very limited (dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s), deep boundary-layer mixing denoted by 40-50 F dewpoint depressions may promote downdraft accelerations with an attendant severe wind risk. The past several HRRR/RRFS solutions have consistently shown a signal for at least sporadic severe gusts with this early convection. Severe gusts should become more probable with eastward extent later this evening as convection migrates into the deeper moisture along the NM/TX border. ...Central Oklahoma to western Arkansas... Early-morning convection has largely eroded across OK and far western AR; however, surface observations and visible imagery reveal a residual outflow boundary/differential heating zone draped from north-central OK to western AR. Some building cumulus is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 80s within a very moist air mass. The KSRX and KINX VWPs continue to sample 30-35 knot mid-level flow, which may be sufficient for organized cells if convection can develop along this boundary later this afternoon/evening. Additionally, increasing isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb late tonight may support additional thunderstorms across OK. ..Moore.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0412 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0412 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0412 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0412 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 412 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 132000Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Western Nebraska Extreme southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to form and spread east of the higher terrain, with the potential for clustering/upscale growth by this evening. Large hail will be possible with the initial, more cellular storms (especially across northeast Wyoming where a supercell or two will be possible). However, severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will become the main threat later this evening as storm clusters spread east-southeastward over the High Plains. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Gillette WY to 15 miles southeast of Akron CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 411... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 17:31:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:22:16 GMT

MD 1270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Areas affected...Central Tennessee and Kentucky...northeastern Mississippi...and northwestern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131738Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase across the TN Valley through this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...A few clusters of thunderstorms, and new rapid development via visible satellite imagery, are being observed from far northeastern MS into middle TN and central KY. This convection is blooming in a low to moderately unstable air mass, with surface dewpoints/temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s under a relatively cooler pocket of air aloft, east of a mid-level cyclone centered near the MO/AR border. Based on the latest VAD profiles around the region, mid-level southwesterly flow continues to slowly increase. Some organization into line segments will be possible through this afternoon given ~35 kt of effective deep layer shear, with precipitation loading aiding in a threat of locally damaging wind gusts. However, a lack of persistent, stronger mid-level flow later today should limit the overall severe weather threat and a weather watch is not anticipated at this time. ..Barnes/Thompson.. 06/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34908861 35578828 36098735 38558529 38208444 36598512 35598591 34618668 33858747 33598794 33438871 33378933 33498963 33798974 34218958 34908861 Read more

MD 1271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Areas affected...Central into Eastern/Southeastern MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131745Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across central and eastern/southeastern MT this afternoon. Large to very large hail and strong gusts are possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...Despite relatively modest temperatures, still in the mid/upper 60s, and low-level moisture, with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, the airmass is quickly destabilizing across central and eastern MT. This destabilization is supported predominantly by cooling mid-level temperatures, which are already -11 to -15 deg C at 500 mb across the region. Southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to gradually strengthen throughout the day as a shortwave trough progresses across the Pacific Northwest into the region. The strengthening flow will contribute to orographic ascent across the higher terrain, with large-scale lift also increasing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting combination of lift and destabilization is expected to foster widespread thunderstorms across the region. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest across central MT, while increasing slightly with southeasterly extent where better low-level moisture exists. Even so, there is enough buoyancy for strong updrafts, particularly when combined with the moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear in place. Storms will likely persist off the terrain into more of the High Plains. The strong deep-layer shear will favor large to very large hail, with some hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Strong and damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph are also possible. Overall, the tornado risk is low, but greater low-level moisture and stronger southeasterly flow across eastern/southeastern MT suggests there is a relatively higher risk there than areas farther west. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 46561316 47741128 48340707 47790545 46220535 45250752 45321281 46561316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more