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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 17:31:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:22:16 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 17:31:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:22:16 GMT

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies, troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and westward given the presence of lee troughing. ...Montana into central High Plains... With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of 40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary threat with that activity. ...Central/southern Plains... The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas. Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics. For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional outcome. Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters. ...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota... A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary. Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support some risk for marginally severe hail. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east. This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500 J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

759
ABPZ20 KNHC 131732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin
off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dalila are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dalila are issued under WMO
header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Blake

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 13 17:34:02 UTC 2025.