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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/southern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/southern MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward over the northern Rockies, with associated bands of ascent denoted by weak convection now over ID. Surface heating along and southwest of a baroclinic zone oriented from north central into southeast MT, and arrival of the bands of ascent from ID will contribute to thunderstorm development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT. Storms will then spread eastward through the afternoon/evening, in an environment supportive of supercells on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, in a corridor with long hodographs/effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt. The strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will favor large hail production, some greater than 2 inch diameter with the supercells, as well as damaging outflow gusts that could reach or exceed 75 mph. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though relatively deep mixing and relatively straight hodographs cast some doubt on the tornado threat. ...High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Despite being near the crest of the midlevel ridge, sufficiently moist, low-level upslope flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development near and east of the lee trough from eastern WY to eastern CO/western KS and the northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon/evening. Deep mixing, steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow interactions, and the clusters will spread southeastward into tonight. Isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger embedded storms, while severe outflow gusts will become the main concern with storm clusters this evening into early tonight. ...MS/AL to KY this afternoon... East of a weak midlevel trough from east TX to MO, modest enhancement of midlevel flow (to roughly 30-35 kt) and daytime heating of a moist air mass will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon from southeast LA/MS across northwest AL, TN and KY. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and the aforementioned enhancement to midlevel flow will support storm clusters/line segments with some potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a slow-moving front from DE into northern MD, which will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the front and the Blue Ridge, and storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) will support some storm/cluster organization and the potential for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 06/13/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:22:16 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:22:14 GMT

Revenues for Reading Area Water Authority were down for seven to eight months due to the request for voluntary water conservation. As a result, billings were down a quarter of a million dollars a month, according to an employee with RAWA. Berks County remained in a drought warning by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s reckoning. At that stage, the aim is to curb water use by 10% to 15%. WFMZ 69 News (Allentown, Pa.), June 12, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131437 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 Latest satellite imagery depicts that the disturbance south of Mexico has continued to become better organized this morning. First-light visible imagery shows that the system has developed a well-defined low-level center, and infrared imagery shows a large burst of organized deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Thus, the disturbance now meets the requirements to be classified a tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain around 30 kt with a T2.0 from TAFB. Thus, the intensity is held at 30 kt, and the system is now Tropical Depression Four-E. The initial motion remains uncertain given the recent formation of a well-defined low-level center, but it is estimated at 335/9 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and build over Mexico later today, which will cause a more northwestward motion this afternoon and evening, followed by a west-northwestward motion later this weekend. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one, which lies near the simple consensus aids. Along the forecast track, the system will parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico, remaining offshore. As the depression continues to become better organized, steady strengthening is forecast over the next 36-48 h, with the system over warm sea surface temperatures. However, there is some moderate easterly vertical wind shear that the system will have to deal with. As the system took a little longer to consolidate, the latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower, with a peak intensity of 55 kt, which lies near the simple consensus. However, some of the regional hurricane models continue to show a higher peak. Beyond 48 h, the system will cross into a drier, more stable airmass and over cooler SSTs which will lead to steady weakening. Global models show the system struggling to produce convection by 72 h, becoming a remnant low, and then dissipating by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Depression Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The Tropical Depression is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 013 FOPZ14 KNHC 131436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 012 WTPZ34 KNHC 131436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 101.6W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, and a Tropical Storm Watch north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 101.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Four-E was located near 13.9, -101.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 199 WTPZ24 KNHC 131436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 101.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should occur across central/eastern Montana, where large to very large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes are anticipated. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A closed upper low will remain centered off the coast of British Columbia today, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is already in place this morning across much of MT, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s. Daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate instability by this afternoon, mainly from central MT eastward. 35-50 kt of west-southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave troughs should support similar values of deep-layer shear, with RAP forecast soundings showing long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels. Large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave troughs will likely encourage robust convective development by early afternoon (18-20Z), initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. This activity is forecast to quickly become supercellular given moderate to strong effective bulk shear. The favorable lapse rates and hodographs at mid/upper levels should support a threat for scattered large to isolated very large (2+ inch diameter) hail with this initially cellular activity. By mid to late afternoon into early evening, some clustering/upscale growth is anticipated across eastern MT and vicinity as low-level southeasterly flow gradually strengthens. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds, with isolated gusts of 75+ mph, remains apparent across this area. The tornado threat is less clear, as the boundary layer is forecast to become rather well mixed this afternoon. Still, modestly increasing low-level shear this evening may support some threat for a few tornadoes. ...Central/Southern High Plains into Western Arkansas... Elevated convection ongoing this morning across western OK in a modest low-level warm advection regime may pose a limited severe threat until it diminishes later this morning. Otherwise, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies and subsequently spread eastward into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Mid-level west-southwesterly flow is generally expected to weaken with southward extent across the central High Plains. But, sufficient directional shear should still exist to support some updraft organization, including the potential for a few supercells across eastern WY/CO into western SD/NE/KS. Isolated large hail will be a threat with any convection that can remain at least semi-discrete, while severe winds may occur with one or more clusters that eventually develop. Convection is expected to become more isolated and less organized with southward extent into the southern High Plains, but it may still pose some hail/wind threat given sufficient instability and steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Somewhat stronger northwesterly mid-level flow should also be in place across OK into western AR on the back side of an upper trough over the lower/mid MS Valley. While forcing will remain weak/nebulous across this region, a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley... A weak mid-level trough will advance slowly eastward from the Ozarks to the lower MS and OH Valleys through the period. Around 25-35 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow will be present over these regions as filtered daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass occurs today. Even though lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain poor, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear should exist to support an isolated threat for mainly damaging winds this afternoon and early evening as low-level lapse rates steepen. A Marginal Risk has been included with this update across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the OH Valley, where confidence in loosely organized clusters occurring is greatest. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/13/2025 Read more