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MD 1265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122214Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and large hail may occur this afternoon across portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in weak upslope surface flow along the lee of the higher terrain across portions of central Colorado and New Mexico. Strong mixing on the High Plains has resulted in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles with approximately 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast profiles. Generally, low-level and deep-layer shear are marginal for supercells, particularly across northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado, and some transient mid-level mesocyclones are apparent on WSR-88D radar. Some clustering of storms may occur with time given strong cold pools, and this may result in a risk for severe gusts. Additionally, given the weak low-level shear and low freezing levels, some marginally severe hail may be possible. Due to the expected sparse coverage of severe weather, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 37570523 38560477 38590381 38110350 36160348 34310369 33160418 32870473 32990530 33860555 35790556 37570523 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0410 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 410 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 410 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-123-122240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC005-007-013-017-029-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-103-105- 117-123-135-157-161-165-171-122240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE BROWN CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA KIMBALL MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS SDC003-015-017-023-053-073-085-095-121-123-122240- Read more

WW 410 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 122055Z - 130500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Western and Northern Nebraska Southern South Dakota Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop regionally mainly near a southwest/northeast-oriented front, with an unstable air mass and moderately strong wind profiles supporting supercells and hail/wind potential, and possibly even a brief tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east southeast of Chamberlain SD to 75 miles south southwest of Torrington WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1267 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... FOR SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...Southeast WY/northeast CO into western/north-central NE and south-central SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410... Valid 122308Z - 130045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for primarily large hail and severe gusts will continue this evening. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of potentially severe storms are ongoing as of 23 UTC across WW 410. One is a backbuilding supercell cluster near the NE/SD border north of Valentine, NE, in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary surface front. Given the orientation of the instability gradient, this cluster may attempt to propagate southward with time, with continued backbuilding possible along its western flank. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg near/south of the front) and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range, along with localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is not particularly strong, a tornado cannot be ruled out, given the presence of supercell structures in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Farther southwest, more loosely organized convection is ongoing near the NE/WY border. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support an isolated hail threat in the short term. Consolidating outflows may eventually result in an outflow-driven cluster with a threat of severe gusts spreading eastward across the NE Panhandle later this evening. ..Dean.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41970508 42640468 43000225 43400117 43889995 44119924 43929871 43329896 42479959 41630008 40270183 40360383 40550415 40780437 41210483 41970508 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122214Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and large hail may occur this afternoon across portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in weak upslope surface flow along the lee of the higher terrain across portions of central Colorado and New Mexico. Strong mixing on the High Plains has resulted in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles with approximately 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast profiles. Generally, low-level and deep-layer shear are marginal for supercells, particularly across northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado, and some transient mid-level mesocyclones are apparent on WSR-88D radar. Some clustering of storms may occur with time given strong cold pools, and this may result in a risk for severe gusts. Additionally, given the weak low-level shear and low freezing levels, some marginally severe hail may be possible. Due to the expected sparse coverage of severe weather, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 37570523 38560477 38590381 38110350 36160348 34310369 33160418 32870473 32990530 33860555 35790556 37570523 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 584 WTPZ34 KNHC 122338 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 600 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 100.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 100.5 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Thu Jun 12 the center of Four-E was located near 11.5, -100.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 23:38:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT

275
ABPZ20 KNHC 122328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located in the eastern Pacific basin off
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 1266 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN MN INTO FAR NORTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...Parts of extreme southern MN into far northern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122217Z - 122345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible into this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed in the vicinity of a surface front across far southern MN. Frontal convergence and weak low-level warm advection may continue to support development of an additional strong storm or two near the front into this evening. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg near/south of the front combined with effective shear of 30-35 kt could support marginal supercell potential with a threat for isolated hail and damaging wind, and possibly a brief tornado if any supercell can persist in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 44029536 44009358 43839286 43619285 43259321 43129425 43189522 43259545 43429556 43529559 43599558 43899556 44029536 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT

MD 1264 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern Pennsylvania...portions of northern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122057Z - 122300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Conditional risk for severe hail and wind possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is possible across portions of central PA this afternoon near the southward moving cold front. Visible satellite shows deepening cumulus across the area, with a few echos now on radar, as MLCIN has eroded over the last few hours. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is in place with deep layer shear around 40 kts. Should thunderstorm development occur along the front, a supercell or two could be possible with potential for damaging wind and hail. This threat will be monitored for watch potential. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41467754 41707641 41607493 41127363 40597364 40047399 40547679 40937776 41467754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN NE...SOUTHERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...Northern NE...Southern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 122019Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across northern NE and southern SD this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a modest frontal boundary that extends from east-central SD through the NE Panhandle to a low over southeast WY. Despite lingering mid-level warm air, strong diurnal heating has largely eroded any convective inhibition, and low-level convergence along the boundary has fostered deepening cumulus (and at least one storm capable of lightning). Expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase within a narrow corridor along this boundary. Wind profiles, which are characterized by low-level south-southeasterlies and mid/upper-level westerlies, support the potential for supercells initially capable of large hail. The thermodynamic profiles become more conducive for strong outflow with western extent, and there is some potential for outflow-dominant storms to progress southward (or even southwestward) into more of north-central NE. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to merit watch issuance. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42580293 43720169 44359949 44609767 43579769 41820093 41690248 42580293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WY...NE PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast WY...NE Panhandle...Northeast/East-Central CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122004Z - 122200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more convective lines capable of damaging gusts over the next several hours. Some isolated hail is possible as well. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase across the higher terrain of south-central WY and north-central CO, supported by large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough. Persisting westerly flow aloft should result in these storms eventually moving off the terrain into the High Plains, where strong heating has resulted in a deeply mixed and modest buoyant airmass. Expectation is for storms to evolve into one or more outflow-dominant convective lines over the next few hours, with an associated threat for damaging gusts. Some isolated hail is also possible, particularly if storms can maintain a more cellular mode. This appears most likely across southeast WY in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Uncertainty regarding the coverage of severe limits forecast confidence, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 39590513 40900554 41200709 41670732 42170675 42540599 42840498 42840391 42310311 40220230 39020304 38720453 39590513 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more