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...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Jun 12 the center of Four-E was located near 11.3, -100.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 34(42) 10(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER KELLY NNNN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 853 WTPZ24 KNHC 122043 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 85SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 100.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... As of 21:00 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 the center of Four-E was located near 11.3, -100.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

MD 1260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...central/northern Louisiana...southern Arkansas...western Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121827Z - 122030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal severe threat to continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues near an MCV across eastern TX into portion so LA/AR. Largely, this has remained below severe limits. Echo tops have increased over the last hour or so with daytime heating and increasing instability across southern LA. Overall, flow remains weak except in association with the MCV where around 20-30 kts of deep layer shear are noted on the eastern periphery. Some organization may occur with deeper updrafts with potential for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. This corridor will shift north and eastward into AR through time this afternoon. Overall, this risk will likely remain too localized for watch issuance. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30599338 31889300 33029326 34289337 34579311 34379197 34039141 33499071 32299018 30779102 30499168 30139225 30219294 30599338 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more