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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 12 16:56:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Aspen City Council declared a voluntary stage one water shortage in response to escalating drought conditions and the city’s limited water storage capacity. Aspen relies on surface water from Castle and Marron Creeks and does not have any major reservoirs, but only three to five days’ worth of treated water stored at a time. The Aspen Times (Colo.), June 11, 2025

Santa Fe County commissioners imposed a ban on fireworks, such as missile-type rockets, helicopters, aerial spinners, stick-type rockets, and ground audible devices, through July 10. The aim was to protect lives, property and the environment. KOB 4 (Santa Fe, N.M.), June 11, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plains into lower Mississippi Valley and a small portion of the northern Mid Atlantic. ...NE/SD... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over eastern MT, with a mid-level speed max tracking across WY. Large-scale lift associated with the jet max will overspread parts of NE/SD by late afternoon along a stalled surface boundary. At least widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for a few hours (mainly 21-03z), with forecast soundings suggesting sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized/rotating cells. Locally damaging winds and hail are possible. Overnight CAM guidance has shown consistency on the corridor most likely to see storms, so have added a narrow SLGT to cover this threat. ...East TX/LA/AR... An upper trough is located over central TX, where widespread thunderstorms are ongoing this morning. A few of these storms have shown supercell tendencies overnight. Model guidance and local VAD data suggest a region of enhanced low/mid level flow to the east of the upper trough, extending from central into northeast TX. As the trough moves northeastward today, the combination of a very moist and modestly unstable air mass, sufficient low/deep layer shear, and considerable coverage of thunderstorms, will contribute to a risk of a few locally damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes. Will maintain MRGL risk for today due to widespread clouds and limited opportunity for heating. ...GA/SC/NC... Strong heating is expected today across parts of GA/SC/NC, where temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plains into lower Mississippi Valley and a small portion of the northern Mid Atlantic. ...NE/SD... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over eastern MT, with a mid-level speed max tracking across WY. Large-scale lift associated with the jet max will overspread parts of NE/SD by late afternoon along a stalled surface boundary. At least widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for a few hours (mainly 21-03z), with forecast soundings suggesting sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized/rotating cells. Locally damaging winds and hail are possible. Overnight CAM guidance has shown consistency on the corridor most likely to see storms, so have added a narrow SLGT to cover this threat. ...East TX/LA/AR... An upper trough is located over central TX, where widespread thunderstorms are ongoing this morning. A few of these storms have shown supercell tendencies overnight. Model guidance and local VAD data suggest a region of enhanced low/mid level flow to the east of the upper trough, extending from central into northeast TX. As the trough moves northeastward today, the combination of a very moist and modestly unstable air mass, sufficient low/deep layer shear, and considerable coverage of thunderstorms, will contribute to a risk of a few locally damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes. Will maintain MRGL risk for today due to widespread clouds and limited opportunity for heating. ...GA/SC/NC... Strong heating is expected today across parts of GA/SC/NC, where temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two while
it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly

Leaders of the City of Yakima have encouraged water conservation as the region was experiencing drought. KIMA-TV (Yakima, Wash.), June 7, 2025