Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible. ...Synopsis... A weak shortwave trough will move through the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley region on Friday. This feature will likely lose amplitude with time. Farther west, a stronger shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies by late afternoon/evening while surface ridging will build into the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Strong surface heating and a lee trough promoting moisture influx into these regions will lead to an elongated region of greater confidence in severe storm coverage from Montana into the northern Texas Panhandle. With the trough approaching the northern Rockies, the highest storm coverage will likely be in Montana into parts of Wyoming. Effective shear in these areas (particularly near the Big Horns) will range from 45-55 kts. Large hail, including some potential for stones around 2 inches in diameter, and severe wind gusts are probable. Farther to the south, storm coverage will gradually become more limited, especially away from terrain initiation sources. Even so, clusters of initial supercells or small linear segments will pose some risk for large hail and severe wind gusts as well. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow, a few storms are possible along a weak surface boundary near the Maryland/Pennsylvania border. Some model guidance shows a weak shortwave perturbation moving into the region, but timing and strength of the feature are variable. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak and buoyancy will largely depend on surface heating. Given the uncertainty in cloud cover, it appears any severe will be conditional. A few stronger storms are possible and trends in guidance will be monitored with regard to areas of sufficient surface heating. ...Southeast/Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are likely near and ahead of the weak upper-level shortwave trough that will be slowly lifting northeast through the Ozarks. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely during the morning/afternoon. This increases the uncertainty as to where the greatest amount of destabilization will occur. Some modest flow enhancement appears probable for the Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley vicinity, though mid-level winds will weaken through the day. Greater buoyancy is expected in Mississippi, but deep-layer shear will be much weaker. There is certainly potential for isolated wind damage from the stronger storms tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in highlighting an area of greater coverage of organized severe storms is low at this point. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible. ...Synopsis... A weak shortwave trough will move through the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley region on Friday. This feature will likely lose amplitude with time. Farther west, a stronger shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies by late afternoon/evening while surface ridging will build into the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Strong surface heating and a lee trough promoting moisture influx into these regions will lead to an elongated region of greater confidence in severe storm coverage from Montana into the northern Texas Panhandle. With the trough approaching the northern Rockies, the highest storm coverage will likely be in Montana into parts of Wyoming. Effective shear in these areas (particularly near the Big Horns) will range from 45-55 kts. Large hail, including some potential for stones around 2 inches in diameter, and severe wind gusts are probable. Farther to the south, storm coverage will gradually become more limited, especially away from terrain initiation sources. Even so, clusters of initial supercells or small linear segments will pose some risk for large hail and severe wind gusts as well. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow, a few storms are possible along a weak surface boundary near the Maryland/Pennsylvania border. Some model guidance shows a weak shortwave perturbation moving into the region, but timing and strength of the feature are variable. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak and buoyancy will largely depend on surface heating. Given the uncertainty in cloud cover, it appears any severe will be conditional. A few stronger storms are possible and trends in guidance will be monitored with regard to areas of sufficient surface heating. ...Southeast/Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are likely near and ahead of the weak upper-level shortwave trough that will be slowly lifting northeast through the Ozarks. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely during the morning/afternoon. This increases the uncertainty as to where the greatest amount of destabilization will occur. Some modest flow enhancement appears probable for the Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley vicinity, though mid-level winds will weaken through the day. Greater buoyancy is expected in Mississippi, but deep-layer shear will be much weaker. There is certainly potential for isolated wind damage from the stronger storms tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in highlighting an area of greater coverage of organized severe storms is low at this point. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible. ...Synopsis... A weak shortwave trough will move through the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley region on Friday. This feature will likely lose amplitude with time. Farther west, a stronger shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies by late afternoon/evening while surface ridging will build into the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Strong surface heating and a lee trough promoting moisture influx into these regions will lead to an elongated region of greater confidence in severe storm coverage from Montana into the northern Texas Panhandle. With the trough approaching the northern Rockies, the highest storm coverage will likely be in Montana into parts of Wyoming. Effective shear in these areas (particularly near the Big Horns) will range from 45-55 kts. Large hail, including some potential for stones around 2 inches in diameter, and severe wind gusts are probable. Farther to the south, storm coverage will gradually become more limited, especially away from terrain initiation sources. Even so, clusters of initial supercells or small linear segments will pose some risk for large hail and severe wind gusts as well. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow, a few storms are possible along a weak surface boundary near the Maryland/Pennsylvania border. Some model guidance shows a weak shortwave perturbation moving into the region, but timing and strength of the feature are variable. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak and buoyancy will largely depend on surface heating. Given the uncertainty in cloud cover, it appears any severe will be conditional. A few stronger storms are possible and trends in guidance will be monitored with regard to areas of sufficient surface heating. ...Southeast/Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are likely near and ahead of the weak upper-level shortwave trough that will be slowly lifting northeast through the Ozarks. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely during the morning/afternoon. This increases the uncertainty as to where the greatest amount of destabilization will occur. Some modest flow enhancement appears probable for the Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley vicinity, though mid-level winds will weaken through the day. Greater buoyancy is expected in Mississippi, but deep-layer shear will be much weaker. There is certainly potential for isolated wind damage from the stronger storms tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in highlighting an area of greater coverage of organized severe storms is low at this point. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible. ...Synopsis... A weak shortwave trough will move through the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley region on Friday. This feature will likely lose amplitude with time. Farther west, a stronger shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies by late afternoon/evening while surface ridging will build into the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Strong surface heating and a lee trough promoting moisture influx into these regions will lead to an elongated region of greater confidence in severe storm coverage from Montana into the northern Texas Panhandle. With the trough approaching the northern Rockies, the highest storm coverage will likely be in Montana into parts of Wyoming. Effective shear in these areas (particularly near the Big Horns) will range from 45-55 kts. Large hail, including some potential for stones around 2 inches in diameter, and severe wind gusts are probable. Farther to the south, storm coverage will gradually become more limited, especially away from terrain initiation sources. Even so, clusters of initial supercells or small linear segments will pose some risk for large hail and severe wind gusts as well. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow, a few storms are possible along a weak surface boundary near the Maryland/Pennsylvania border. Some model guidance shows a weak shortwave perturbation moving into the region, but timing and strength of the feature are variable. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak and buoyancy will largely depend on surface heating. Given the uncertainty in cloud cover, it appears any severe will be conditional. A few stronger storms are possible and trends in guidance will be monitored with regard to areas of sufficient surface heating. ...Southeast/Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are likely near and ahead of the weak upper-level shortwave trough that will be slowly lifting northeast through the Ozarks. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely during the morning/afternoon. This increases the uncertainty as to where the greatest amount of destabilization will occur. Some modest flow enhancement appears probable for the Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley vicinity, though mid-level winds will weaken through the day. Greater buoyancy is expected in Mississippi, but deep-layer shear will be much weaker. There is certainly potential for isolated wind damage from the stronger storms tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in highlighting an area of greater coverage of organized severe storms is low at this point. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

098
ABPZ20 KNHC 121726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form in the next day or so while it moves
generally west-northwestward. Interests along the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/12/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 12 16:56:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of far southwestern NM and eastern AZ this afternoon and evening. West/northwesterly flow aloft behind a departing upper trough will encourage downslope winds of 10-20 mph. Partially overlapped with areas of low RH and somewhat dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as mainly zonal flow becomes established over the northern CONUS today. Upper support associated with the western trough will encourage dry downslope flow to the lee of both the Cascades and the Sierra. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20 percent RH, will overlap with dry fuels east of the Cascades, and across the western Great Basin, warranting the continuance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more