Aggregator

MD 1239 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Areas affected...South Carolina coastal plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101331Z - 101530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to localized damaging gusts (45-60 mph) may become more prevalent this morning as 0-2 km lapse rates steepen. DISCUSSION...An organized thunderstorm cluster over the Low Country of South Carolina is moving northeast at 40 kt, slightly exceeding the mean wind (reference 12 UTC Charleston raob; 35 kt), and likely a result of cold pool driven processes. Surface observations along the immediate coast have warmed to near 80 deg F with scattered to broken clouds. Although weak buoyancy (600 J/kg MUCAPE) was noted in the raob, modifying for current surface observations yields around 1900 J/kg MUCAPE. Around 40-kt flow was observed on the Charleston raob, and a recent strengthening in 1-3 km flow from 20 kt to 55 kt in this layer per KCLX VAD data, suggests appreciable organization to the thunderstorm band. Some uptick in damaging gusts may occur as additional heating occurs ahead of this activity, but the overall magnitude and small spatial scale likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. ..Smith/Mosier.. 06/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 32878132 33448025 33787940 33707898 33347891 32138058 32158082 32878132 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 10 12:28:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies. ...Central/East TX This Morning... Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon. However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates. ...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening... The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating, is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Coastal GA/SC... Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts. ...Eastern FL Peninsula... Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong instability later this afternoon along the northeast and east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...NY/New England... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies. ...Central/East TX This Morning... Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon. However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates. ...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening... The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating, is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Coastal GA/SC... Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts. ...Eastern FL Peninsula... Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong instability later this afternoon along the northeast and east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...NY/New England... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies. ...Central/East TX This Morning... Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon. However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates. ...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening... The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating, is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Coastal GA/SC... Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts. ...Eastern FL Peninsula... Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong instability later this afternoon along the northeast and east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...NY/New England... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme, both located in the eastern
Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend while moving
generally west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:51:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:51:34 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through about Sunday/D6, depicting upper ridging over the northern Plains and rising heights across the Northeast and general troughiness over the Northwest. During that same period, the disturbance over the southern Plains is forecast to lift toward the mid MS Valley with weakening trend. The greatest risk of severe storms will generally stretch from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, as weak but backed low-level winds maintain a moist plume out of the central Plains and into MT and the Dakotas. On Friday/D4, scattered strong storms may occur over central MT, beneath modest southwest winds aloft and with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Instability will build further in the Saturday/D5 to Sunday/D6 time frame, with greater storm coverage expected. However, winds aloft will be marginal. Still, developing west to northwest flow aloft could eventually result in an MCS pattern with attendant wind potential. Predictability is low at this time, but the northern and central Plains region will be monitored over the next several days for potential categorical risk outlines. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through about Sunday/D6, depicting upper ridging over the northern Plains and rising heights across the Northeast and general troughiness over the Northwest. During that same period, the disturbance over the southern Plains is forecast to lift toward the mid MS Valley with weakening trend. The greatest risk of severe storms will generally stretch from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, as weak but backed low-level winds maintain a moist plume out of the central Plains and into MT and the Dakotas. On Friday/D4, scattered strong storms may occur over central MT, beneath modest southwest winds aloft and with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Instability will build further in the Saturday/D5 to Sunday/D6 time frame, with greater storm coverage expected. However, winds aloft will be marginal. Still, developing west to northwest flow aloft could eventually result in an MCS pattern with attendant wind potential. Predictability is low at this time, but the northern and central Plains region will be monitored over the next several days for potential categorical risk outlines. Read more

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 812 WTPZ43 KNHC 100850 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 The convective appearance of Cosme has changed little since the previous advisory. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 54-59 kt. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the intensity estimates. Cosme continues to move very slowly toward the northwest, with motion estimated at 300/4 kt. A slow motion, perhaps more toward the north, should continue for at least the next 12 h since the overall steering currents are weak, due to Barbara's current position in relation to Cosme. However, as Barbara weakens, Cosme will accelerate north-northeastward in response to ridging located to the northwest of the cyclone. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, and the latest forecast is near the various consensus models. Cosme is forecast to remain in favorable enough conditions for the next 24 h such that the cyclone might be able to maintain its intensity or only weaken very slowly. However, after that time, as Cosme gains latitude, it will encounter cooler water and drier air. Cosme is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical on Wednesday, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products. The post-tropical low is then forecast to gradually weaken and dissipate by 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 15.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 378 FOPZ13 KNHC 100849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100849 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 100849 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...COSME HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 114.5W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 114.5 West. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a faster north-northeast motion late today through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours before weakening begins late today or tonight. Cosme is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

...COSME HOLDING STEADY... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Cosme was located near 15.3, -114.5 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100847 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the past 12 hours or so. The latest current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt range. Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than before, or 310/7 kt. Barbara is forecast to continue moving generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest. Only very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which lies near the various consensus models. The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue moving over progressively colder water over the next day. The cold water will cause Barbara to continue weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with dissipation in 36 hours. The NHC forecast follows the scenario depicted by those models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 100847 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100847 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 108.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Barbara was located near 19.1, -108.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 181 WTPZ22 KNHC 100846 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS