Aggregator

...CORE OF HILARY NEARING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 the center of Hilary was located near 31.3, -116.1 with movement N at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes are possible across the Lower Colorado Valley and southern Mojave Desert vicinity through around dusk. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 2 percent tornado probabilities over AZ. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more details, and reference MCD 2017 for short term severe/tornado hazard information. ..Leitman.. 08/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023/ ...Desert Southwest... The conditional TC-tornado environment evident over the northern Gulf of CA and northwest Sonora is expected to spread north-northwest across the Lower CO Valley and southern Mojave Desert vicinity. The primary corridor of concern will be across southeast CA and adjacent portions of western AZ/southern NV this afternoon into early evening. Here, meager MLCAPE from 300-600 J/kg should develop with some thinning of the cloud canopy amid upper 60s to low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. This will remain coincident with an enlarged low-level hodograph in the northeast quadrant of weakening TC Hilary. Most 12Z HREF guidance struggles to maintain deep convection, but sustained low-topped convection could acquire updraft rotation and be capable of producing a brief tornado. This threat will end from south to north during the evening as low-level drying and decreasing hodograph curvature occurs within the southeast quadrant of the remnant TC. Relatively greater likelihood of deeper convective development is anticipated during the mid to late afternoon along the differential boundary-layer heating corridor from southeast AZ to southwest UT. This zone will be within the pronounced west to east gradient of high to low PW and consequently along the fringe of meager MLCAPE. At least isolated thunderstorms should form off the higher terrain and possess progressively weaker low-level SRH relative to the west/south. Some 12Z HREF members do depict a 2-5 km UH signal which makes sense given adequate shear within this layer. While mid-level rotation will be possible, isolated severe wind gusts should be the primary threat, particularly with any cells/small clusters that can propagate towards the more deeply mixed environment to the north-northeast. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A large-scale upper-level anticyclone will meander across the central U.S. through much of the week before slowly drifting westward toward the Rockies by next weekend. Relatively rich deep-layer moisture pivoting around the upper anticyclone will promote overall cooler/moist conditions across much of the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies. Meanwhile, hot and dry surface conditions will prevail beneath the upper anticyclone over the central and southern CONUS. The latest guidance consensus suggests that some overlap in dry/windy conditions may occur over eastern Colorado Day 3/Tuesday, with 40% Critical probabilities introduced. Thereafter, overall weaker surface winds are expected on a widespread basis across the southern High Plains into the Southeast, with more focused areas of relatively greater wildfire-spread potential confined locally. ..Squitieri.. 08/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The two main changes in this outlook were to add Elevated highlights to eastern Wyoming and expand the Elevated in Texas eastward to central Louisiana. In Wyoming, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds should overlap with 15-20 percent RH during the late morning to late afternoon hours. Grass-based fuels in this area have been exposed to multiple days of relatively dry conditions and have not received appreciable rainfall for at least the last 1-2 weeks. These fuels have become at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, prolonged dry conditions have materialized across portions of the mid-south, resulting in the curing of fuels in this region. Elevated highlights have been extended into Louisiana to account for the increasingly receptive fuels, RH dipping below 30 percent, and at least locally gusty conditions expected. ..Squitieri.. 08/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel anticyclone over the central Plains will shift slightly northeastward on Day 2/Monday, yielding a slight increase in deep-layer easterlies across much of TX. At the same time, a modest increase in the surface pressure gradient is expected along the northwestern periphery of a weather disturbance moving across the Gulf of Mexico. ...Central and north TX... An anomalously warm/dry air mass will remain in place across much of central and north TX -- where 100+ deg afternoon temperatures and around 20 percent RH are expected. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced easterly low/mid-level flow, coupled with the tightening pressure gradient, will support 15-20 mph sustained east-southeasterly surface winds and locally higher gusts. Given exceptionally dry fuels over the area (95th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central High Plains... Similar to Day 1/Sunday, efficient diurnal heating/mixing will yield 15-20 percent minimum RH. At the same time, 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds are expected owing to a tightening pressure gradient, with gusts upwards of 30 mph possible. This dry/breezy combination will favor another day of elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201755
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Hilary, located on the west coast of the
Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America or southern Mexico during the middle part of the
week. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur
while it moves slowly toward the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 19 22:04:01 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2023 20:45:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2023 21:29:07 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192043 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Hilary appears to be weakening quickly. The eye is filling and the cloud tops in the eyewall and rainbands have been warming during the past several hours. In addition, the hurricane has become increasingly asymmetric with dry air continuing to wrap into the western half of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Hilary during the past few hours and found that the minimum pressure has risen to 959 mb. Blending the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data, as well as some of the satellite estimates yields an initial intensity of 95 kt, but that could be a little generous. Areas of heavy rain are already spreading across portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern U.S. Hilary is also producing a large area of high seas along the coast of Baja California and the Gulf of California, with maximum significant wave heights estimated to be higher than 40 ft. The hurricane is still moving north-northwestward, or 345/15 kt. The steering currents are well established and consist of a strong mid-level high pressure area over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. The flow between these features should cause Hilary to accelerate to the north-northwest or north during the next day or two, with the core of the system reaching the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula tonight and southern California Sunday afternoon or evening. The NHC track forecast is largely the same as the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users are reminded that the exact details of the track forecast, including where Hilary might make landfall, are of little overall importance since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend far from the center. These hazards will also begin well in advance of the arrival of the center. Hilary is expected to continue weakening rather quickly while it moves northward due to significantly cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in vertical wind shear. However, Hilary is still expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall or moves very near the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula. There is high confidence that Hilary will move into southern California as a tropical storm. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations for flooding impacts should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rainfall will begin well in advance of the center. In the Southwestern U.S., the potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows. Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding impacts are expected late tonight through early Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula within the hurricane warning area tonight and Sunday morning, and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Sunday. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Sunday in portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread well inland across the western U.S. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 23.8N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 26.4N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 434 FOPZ14 KNHC 192043 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) S CATALINA IS 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 23(23) 37(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YUMA AZ 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TIJUANA 34 X 14(14) 42(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ENSENADA 34 X 58(58) 19(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ENSENADA 50 X 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 84 16(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 5 83(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) P ABREOJOS 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ABREOJOS 50 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ABREOJOS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) P PENASCO 34 2 27(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) HERMOSILLO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 19 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 50 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 25N 115W 64 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192043 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 114.1W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the California/Mexico border * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 114.1 West. Hilary is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). The hurricane is expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) were recently reported at Puerto Cortes. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States, peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized significant flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern California on Sunday. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will persist even after the system becomes post-tropical. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday through early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Hilary was located near 23.8, -114.1 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192042 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......230NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 390SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 114.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper ridge will remain firmly in place across the central/southern CONUS through the upcoming week, promoting hot, dry, and occasionally breezy surface conditions across the central High Plains into Texas. Meanwhile, the remnants of Hilary will traverse the interior west, accompanied and preceded by a rich and deeply moist airmass/precipitation, both of which may prove detrimental to significant, widespread wildfire-spread potential. The best chance for Elevated-equivalent dry/windy surface conditions would be Day 3/Monday across the central High Plains and central Texas, where east-southeasterly winds amid a hot/mixed boundary layer will overspread receptive fuels. Thereafter, medium-range guidance differs on the placement and timing of overlapping favorable surface winds/RH across the south-central CONUS, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
Mesoscale Discussion 2016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Areas affected...San Joaquin Valley into the western Mojave Desert Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192019Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Initially steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing moisture in advance of Hurricane Hilary will result in widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of the San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave desert region. Recent thunderstorm development has already been noted across northeast Kern County, with storm coverage expected to increase over lower elevation areas with time. With low-level flow/shear expected to remain weak through the afternoon, storms may quickly become outflow dominant. However, increasing mid/upper-level flow (as noted on the KSOX and KEYX VWPs) may support modestly organized and sustained convection, with one or more outflow-driven clusters possible by late afternoon. Strong to locally severe gusts will be possible as storms spread northward through the afternoon into early evening across the San Joaquin Valley. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... LAT...LON 36291776 35181694 34881717 34731770 34651820 35151930 36312069 37072115 37732112 38072037 37501907 36291776 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over the San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave Desert vicinity the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. ...20z Update -- San Joaquin Valley/Western Mojave Desert... The previous outlook remains unchanged with the 20z update. Convection will increase in coverage over the next 2-3 hours, and sporadic severe thunderstorm gusts are possible into early evening. For more details, see previous outlook below and any forthcoming MCDs. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023/ ...San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave Desert... Hot temperatures will persist over the Central Valley this afternoon with abundant insolation underway northwest of the extensive cloud canopy downstream of Hurricane Hilary. Convective temperatures will be breached towards early afternoon over the higher terrain across parts of the Transverse Ranges and southern Sierra NV mountains. Isolated to eventually scattered thunderstorms will occur through the afternoon, spreading north-northwest amid south to southeast steering flow that notably strengthens with height in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Deeply mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles beneath the moderate storm motions should support a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts before waning during the early evening. ...West... Elsewhere in the West, very localized severe wind gusts will be possible with several areas of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Spatial coverage of the severe wind threat appears likely to remain below the 5 percent threshold needed for an areal delineation. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A broad midlevel anticyclone will remain centered over the central Plains on Day 2/Sunday, with enhanced midlevel flow along its southern and western peripheries. ...West and central TX... Similar to Day 1/Saturday, a continuation of above-average temperatures (100+ deg) and 15-20 percent RH is expected across parts of west and central TX during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced easterly flow aloft (along the southern periphery of the midlevel anticyclone) will yield 10-15 mph sustained east-southeasterly surface winds. These winds, coupled with the hot/dry conditions, will support elevated fire-weather conditions given critically dry fuels across the area. ...Central High Plains... Efficient diurnal heating/mixing in the presence of enhanced deep-layer southerly flow (along the western periphery of the midlevel anticyclone) will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central High Plains during the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH could lead to elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilary, located a couple of hundred miles south of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America or southern Mexico during the early or middle part
of next week. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

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Forecaster Papin

Heat and drought in Jefferson Parish were causing the ground to shift, breaking water mains and damaging roads. Crews were trying to keep up with the need for street repairs. FOX 8 (New Orleans, La.), Aug 17, 2023

Drought has stunted sugar cane growth by more than 75%. Some growers have pumped water onto their sugar cane fields in an effort to salvage them. Vermilion Today (Abbeville, La.), Aug 16, 2023

Rain has been very scarce in Cherokee County in the past 30 days and was starting to affect agriculture. Milk and cream production were down at a dairy in Jacksonville. The cows only wanted to lay in the shade and didn’t want to get up and graze. Ponds were drying up. The local fire department captain urged residents to be wise and not burn materials outdoors due to the heightened fire danger. There have been more grass and forest fires than usual. Pastors in many area churches were encouraging members to pray for drought relief. A garden center owner warned his customers that they may lose grass and shrubs this summer if the landscaping is not watered regularly. Jacksonville Daily Progress (Texas), Aug 15, 2023