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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated 0

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated 0

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 21 22:16:01 UTC 2023.

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF COASTAL TX...AZ TO MT...AND NORTHERN MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Interior West through early evening, and the coastal plain of South Texas as well as northern Minnesota/Wisconsin early Tuesday. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated strong/severe storms remain possible this afternoon into the evening along a corridor from AZ north-northeastward into MT. See MCD 2019 for more information regarding the short-term threat across parts of UT/ID/WY, and MCD 2020 for more information across parts of AZ. Elsewhere, elevated storms with an isolated severe-hail threat are possible early Tuesday morning across parts of northern MN/WI, and a tornado or two will be possible early Tuesday morning across the coastal Plain of south TX, in association with PTC 9 (which may strengthen into a tropical storm by late tonight). See NHC forecasts/advisories for more information regarding PTC 9, and the previous outlook discussion below for more information regarding the severe-thunderstorm threats. ..Dean.. 08/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023/ ...Coastal South TX... PTC 9 is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday as it organizes westward towards the south TX coast through 12Z. Strengthening low-level winds in the front right quadrant will result in increasing cyclonic enlargement to the hodograph, especially in the 09-12Z period across the portion of the TX coast centered on CRP to PSX. Some 12Z HREF members indicate potential for intermediate convective bands similarly coincident with adequate low-level SRH to support a brief tornado or two towards dawn. Greater spatial extent of this threat inland is expected after 12Z. ...AZ to MT... Between a stout mid-level anticyclone centered over the Lower MO Valley and a cutoff low anchored near the CA Bay Area, a belt of enhanced mid-level southerlies will persist in a swath from AZ to MT, coincident with a plume of higher PW values. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected along the eastern periphery of this plume where more robust boundary-layer heating will occur, and pose a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts. Relatively larger buoyancy should be confined across the AZ portion near/south of the Mogollon Rim where 60s surface dew points remain common this morning. This may yield a slightly greater threat for isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe hail will be possible during the early morning as highly elevated convection develops in a west-northwest to east-southeast band across northeast MN to northern WI. Owing to the proximity of the mid-level anticyclone/ridge, mid/upper-level lapse rates will not be particularly steep. But with a belt of strong mid/upper flow across northwest ON through the Upper Great Lakes, adequate effective bulk shear should exist for a few mid-level supercells capable of producing severe hail. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper-level anticyclone will drift slowly westward from the Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains this week into this weekend. Beneath the upper-level anticyclone, persistent hot and dry conditions will promote the further curing of fuels across the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, with no appreciable forecast rainfall in sight. Surface winds are expected to be relatively light beneath the upper-level anticyclone through most of the period, with any breezy conditions that develop remaining localized, precluding any Critical probabilities this outlook. Meanwhile, moisture will continue to pivot around the western periphery of the upper-level anticyclone, potentially dampening significant wildfire-spread potential across much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/northern Rockies areas. However, conditions should remain dry to the west of the Cascades, with fuels remaining anomalously dry from far northwest California into western Washington. After the departure of the tropical remnants of Hilary, additional upper troughing along the Pacific Northwest Coastline may promote at least isolated thunderstorm development west of the Cascades by the end of the week. There are some indications from medium-range guidance that these thunderstorms could be dry. However, consistency among guidance members is needed before dry thunderstorm probabilities are introduced. ..Squitieri.. 08/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2021 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL AZ
Mesoscale Discussion 2021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Areas affected...Southeast/East-Central AZ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211958Z - 212230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts may develop across east-central and southeast Arizona this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows some deepening cumulus across southeast/east-central AZ, between more widespread cumulus over the higher terrain near the AZ/NM border and a more persistent north/south oriented cloud band across central AZ. This persistent cloudiness has tempered heating and destabilization across central AZ thus far, but partly cloudy skies have allow modest destabilization across south-central/southeast AZ. Further destabilization is anticipated throughout the afternoon, and moisture convergence along this differential heating zone is expected to result in convective initiation. Strong low to mid-level flow extends throughout this region as well, with recent mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear from 35 to 45 kt. As such, any storms that area able to deepen and persist could become organized/supercellular with the potential to produce damaging gusts. Overall coverage of strong to severe storms appears it will remain isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31411103 32831163 34271174 34881159 35241114 35111033 34540989 33500953 32700927 32180920 31470925 31340973 31411103 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 08/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Strong low/mid-level flow will continue across much of TX and the central High Plains -- along the southern and western peripheries of a persistent midlevel anticyclone centered over the central CONUS. At the same time, an area of low pressure is forecast to continue westward from the western Gulf of Mexico across south TX, while an additional surface low and trailing surface trough persist over the central High Plains. ...Central Texas... Along the northern periphery of cloud coverage associated with the area of low pressure crossing south TX, diurnal heating should support a corridor of 20-25 percent minimum RH across parts of central TX. Here, a tightening pressure gradient, along with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained easterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given critically dry fuels over this area (95th+ percentile ERCs), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. If model guidance trends any drier with afternoon RH through this corridor, a Critical area could be needed in future outlooks. ...Central High Plains... Similar to Day 1/Monday, a tightening pressure gradient along the surface trough over the central High Plains will contribute to around 20 mph southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH, will favor elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hilary, located over the United States Rocky Mountains.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the
coast of Central America or southern Mexico during the next few
days. Any subsequent development of this system should be slow to
occur while it drifts toward the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Future information on Hilary can be found in Public Advisories
issued by the Weather Prediction Center under AWIPS header TCPEP4,
WMO header WTPZ34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TX...PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...NORTHWEST AZ INTO UT AND SOUTHWEST WY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with gusty winds and possibly a tornado or two will be possible across parts of south Texas on Tuesday, in association with a potential tropical cyclone. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from northern Arizona into Utah and southwest Wyoming, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...South-central into Deep South TX... PTC 9 is currently forecast by NHC to strengthen into a tropical storm early Tuesday morning. The center of this system is forecast to be approaching the south TX coast at the start of the period. As tropical moisture and increasing low-level flow/shear spreads across south-central into Deep South TX in association with this system, transient low-topped supercells will become possible, potentially posing a threat for a tornado or two and isolated strong/severe gusts. The greatest relative threat is expected across the typically favored northeast quadrant of the cyclone, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain, pending the landfall intensity of the system and strength of any notable diurnal destabilization. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... One round of elevated convection will be possible Tuesday morning from northern WI into parts of upper MI, with another round possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the same general region, potentially extending into parts of lower MI. Both rounds will occur to the cool side of a slow-moving warm front and be driven by a moderate to strong nocturnal low-level jet. Midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE will likely be greater for the second round of convection late in the period (potentially increasing above 2000 J/kg), with moderate northwesterly midlevel flow along the periphery of a strong upper ridge providing sufficient effective shear for organized storms. Isolated hail will be possible with the strongest storms, both early and late in the forecast period. MCS development cannot be ruled out late in the period, but low-level stability should generally tend to limit severe-gust potential. ...Great Basin vicinity... A moisture plume and a belt of somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will persist across portions of the Great Basin on Tuesday, along/east of an ejecting upper-level trough that will move from northern CA into the northern Rockies. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this regime through the day into the evening. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, rather weak midlevel lapse rates and potentially limited heating may limit destabilization and the overall severe threat. If MLCAPE can increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range (which remains uncertain), a few organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may evolve, with a threat of isolated severe gusts and possibly a brief tornado. ...Interior Northwest... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon from eastern OR into ID and western MT, associated with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support somewhat organized convection, but it remains uncertain as to whether instability will be sufficient to support a severe hail/wind threat. ..Dean.. 08/21/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 20 22:24:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 20 22:24:02 UTC 2023.

Issued at 241 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Issued at 216 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 821 WTPZ24 KNHC 202049 CCA TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 116.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2023 20:39:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2023 21:41:46 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Hilary made landfall over the northern Baja California Peninsula a few hours ago with maximum winds estimated to be around 55 kt. Since then the storm has continued to move north-northwestward with the center now nearing the California/Mexico border. Maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 50 kt based on the earlier aircraft data and satellite estimates. Surface observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds have spread into southern California and there have been a few reports of gusts around hurricane force. In addition, radar images show that bands of heavy rain have spread across portions of the southwestern United States and this will continue through early Monday. The storm is moving quickly to the north-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 345/20 kt. An even faster motion to the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so as Hilary moves in the fast flow between a ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. Little change was made to the previous track forecast. Continued weakening due to dry air, and land interaction is expected, but Hilary is forecast to remain a tropical storm while it moves over southern California through tonight. The strongest winds are expected to be to the east of the center and in areas of high terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations for flooding impacts across the Southwestern United States should be completed with the peak intensity of heavy rainfall expected later today through early Monday morning. The potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through early Monday morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant, are also expected across northern portions of the Intermountain West. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across the northern portion of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area during the next few hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread well inland across the western United States. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 202036 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S CATALINA IS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) YUMA AZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TIJUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ENSENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ENSENADA 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P PENASCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 ...CORE OF HILARY NEARING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 116.1W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Punta Eugenia on the west coast and south of Bahia San Bautista on the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula west coast from Punta Eugenia northward * Baja California peninsula east coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista northward * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located inland near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 116.1 West. Hilary is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h) and the storm is expected to accelerate even more as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move across southern California in the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to continue, but Hilary is forecast to remain a tropical storm while it moves across southern California. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust of 70 mph (113 km/h) was reported at Sill Hill, California. A sustained wind of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust of 72 mph (116 km/h) was reported at Hauser Mountain, California. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is expected. Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding. Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday morning, resulting in localized significant flash flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for this storm can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through the evening in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight in the warning area in southern California. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will persist even after the system becomes post-tropical. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California today through early Monday. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through this evening over southeast California, western Arizona, southern Nevada, and far southwest Utah. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi