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Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 434 FOPZ14 KNHC 192043 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) S CATALINA IS 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 23(23) 37(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YUMA AZ 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TIJUANA 34 X 14(14) 42(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ENSENADA 34 X 58(58) 19(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ENSENADA 50 X 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 84 16(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 5 83(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) P ABREOJOS 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ABREOJOS 50 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ABREOJOS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) P PENASCO 34 2 27(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) HERMOSILLO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 19 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 50 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 25N 115W 64 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192043 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 114.1W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the California/Mexico border * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 114.1 West. Hilary is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). The hurricane is expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) were recently reported at Puerto Cortes. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States, peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized significant flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern California on Sunday. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will persist even after the system becomes post-tropical. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday through early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Hilary was located near 23.8, -114.1 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192042 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......230NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 390SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 114.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper ridge will remain firmly in place across the central/southern CONUS through the upcoming week, promoting hot, dry, and occasionally breezy surface conditions across the central High Plains into Texas. Meanwhile, the remnants of Hilary will traverse the interior west, accompanied and preceded by a rich and deeply moist airmass/precipitation, both of which may prove detrimental to significant, widespread wildfire-spread potential. The best chance for Elevated-equivalent dry/windy surface conditions would be Day 3/Monday across the central High Plains and central Texas, where east-southeasterly winds amid a hot/mixed boundary layer will overspread receptive fuels. Thereafter, medium-range guidance differs on the placement and timing of overlapping favorable surface winds/RH across the south-central CONUS, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
Mesoscale Discussion 2016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Areas affected...San Joaquin Valley into the western Mojave Desert Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192019Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Initially steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing moisture in advance of Hurricane Hilary will result in widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of the San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave desert region. Recent thunderstorm development has already been noted across northeast Kern County, with storm coverage expected to increase over lower elevation areas with time. With low-level flow/shear expected to remain weak through the afternoon, storms may quickly become outflow dominant. However, increasing mid/upper-level flow (as noted on the KSOX and KEYX VWPs) may support modestly organized and sustained convection, with one or more outflow-driven clusters possible by late afternoon. Strong to locally severe gusts will be possible as storms spread northward through the afternoon into early evening across the San Joaquin Valley. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... LAT...LON 36291776 35181694 34881717 34731770 34651820 35151930 36312069 37072115 37732112 38072037 37501907 36291776 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over the San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave Desert vicinity the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. ...20z Update -- San Joaquin Valley/Western Mojave Desert... The previous outlook remains unchanged with the 20z update. Convection will increase in coverage over the next 2-3 hours, and sporadic severe thunderstorm gusts are possible into early evening. For more details, see previous outlook below and any forthcoming MCDs. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023/ ...San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave Desert... Hot temperatures will persist over the Central Valley this afternoon with abundant insolation underway northwest of the extensive cloud canopy downstream of Hurricane Hilary. Convective temperatures will be breached towards early afternoon over the higher terrain across parts of the Transverse Ranges and southern Sierra NV mountains. Isolated to eventually scattered thunderstorms will occur through the afternoon, spreading north-northwest amid south to southeast steering flow that notably strengthens with height in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Deeply mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles beneath the moderate storm motions should support a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts before waning during the early evening. ...West... Elsewhere in the West, very localized severe wind gusts will be possible with several areas of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Spatial coverage of the severe wind threat appears likely to remain below the 5 percent threshold needed for an areal delineation. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A broad midlevel anticyclone will remain centered over the central Plains on Day 2/Sunday, with enhanced midlevel flow along its southern and western peripheries. ...West and central TX... Similar to Day 1/Saturday, a continuation of above-average temperatures (100+ deg) and 15-20 percent RH is expected across parts of west and central TX during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced easterly flow aloft (along the southern periphery of the midlevel anticyclone) will yield 10-15 mph sustained east-southeasterly surface winds. These winds, coupled with the hot/dry conditions, will support elevated fire-weather conditions given critically dry fuels across the area. ...Central High Plains... Efficient diurnal heating/mixing in the presence of enhanced deep-layer southerly flow (along the western periphery of the midlevel anticyclone) will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central High Plains during the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH could lead to elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilary, located a couple of hundred miles south of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America or southern Mexico during the early or middle part
of next week. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Heat and drought in Jefferson Parish were causing the ground to shift, breaking water mains and damaging roads. Crews were trying to keep up with the need for street repairs. FOX 8 (New Orleans, La.), Aug 17, 2023

Drought has stunted sugar cane growth by more than 75%. Some growers have pumped water onto their sugar cane fields in an effort to salvage them. Vermilion Today (Abbeville, La.), Aug 16, 2023

Rain has been very scarce in Cherokee County in the past 30 days and was starting to affect agriculture. Milk and cream production were down at a dairy in Jacksonville. The cows only wanted to lay in the shade and didn’t want to get up and graze. Ponds were drying up. The local fire department captain urged residents to be wise and not burn materials outdoors due to the heightened fire danger. There have been more grass and forest fires than usual. Pastors in many area churches were encouraging members to pray for drought relief. A garden center owner warned his customers that they may lose grass and shrubs this summer if the landscaping is not watered regularly. Jacksonville Daily Progress (Texas), Aug 15, 2023

Drought in Grant Parish shaved yields by at least 20% for irrigated corn and more than 30% for dryland corn. KALB-TV NBC 5 Alexandria (La.), Aug 17, 2023

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 18 22:14:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 18 22:14:01 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2023 20:48:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2023 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 702 WTPZ44 KNHC 182046 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Hilary remains a large and powerful major hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the northern portion of Hilary and found a higher minimum pressure than expected of 948 mb, 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt, and peak SFMR surface winds of 93 kt. However, the aircraft did not sample the southern half of the circulation, which currently has some of the deepest convection. Blending the available aircraft data and latest satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. Hilary continues to slowly bend to the right, and the initial motion is northwestward or 315/10 kt. A general north-northwest to north motion with a steady increase in forward speed is expected tonight and through the weekend as the system is steered by pronounced steering flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. The models have trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has followed suit. Based on the latest forecast, the core of Hilary is expected to be very near the central portion of Baja California Saturday night and move inland over southern California by Sunday night. It should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well ahead of the center. Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected through tonight, but Hilary is expected to begin weakening on Saturday as it moves over progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, partially due to the lower initial intensity, and a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary will begin well in advance of the center, from the Baja California Peninsula into the Southwestern United States. Preparations for the impacts of flooding from rainfall should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rain will increase ahead of the center on Saturday. In the Southwestern United States, flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with the potential for dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula Saturday night and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible by late Sunday in portions of southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and south California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 112.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 182046 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) X(50) X(50) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 42(61) X(61) X(61) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 52(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P ABREOJOS 34 X 5( 5) 58(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 6 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 3 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 115W 34 49 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 115W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 1 29(30) 65(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 25N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 73(75) 3(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) 46(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 ...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 112.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning on the west coast of Baja California northward to Cabo San Quintin and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning north of Loreto on the east coast of Baja California and north of Guaymas in mainland Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward from the Orange/Los Angeles County Line to Point Mugu. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas * Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach southern California by Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely through tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday before it reaches southern California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be possible, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula. Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding will be possible. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible within the hurricane watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight, and are possible within the watch area in Mexico on Saturday and Sunday and in southern California beginning late Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and south California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 the center of Hilary was located near 18.7, -112.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.