Aggregator

Customers of the Pottawatomie County Rural Water District #4 were asked to voluntarily conserve water as high heat intensified drought. The district declared a Water Watch through Sept. 5. WIBW-TV 13 (Topeka, Kan.), Aug 22, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Lakes and central Appalachians, and North Dakota late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. ...Southern Great Lakes into the central Appalachians... A mid-level high over southern OK will maintain a suppressive influence on deep convective development across much of the central U.S. eastward towards the TN Valley. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Upper Great Lakes east-southeastward to the northern portion of the Mid-Atlantic region. In the low levels, a cold front will push southeast across the central Great Lakes into the Lower Great Lakes and provide a focus for thunderstorm development. Very warm mid-level temperatures on the northeast periphery of the mid-level anticyclone will likely inhibit convective development for much of the day. However, associated with the elevated mixed layer over the southern Great Lakes, steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and a very moisture-rich airmass will contribute to moderate to extreme instability developing by mid afternoon. Model guidance indicates at least isolated to scattered storms will develop near the Lake Erie vicinity on the northeast periphery of stronger capping. It remains unclear on the overall coverage/placement and subsequent evolution of storms in the Lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley. If a cluster can develop and become surface-based, a potentially greater risk for severe may occur (i.e., upper OH Valley/Lake Erie vicinity). This activity will probably grow upscale into the central Appalachians during the evening into the overnight and perhaps maintain a risk for damaging gusts/large hail. Farther west across the southern Great Lakes, the surface boundary will become more diffuse with west extent near the MS River. Very hot conditions may overcome the weakly forced setup and result in a few storms from Michiana westward into far eastern IA. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary threats with these potential storms. ...ND... A mid-level shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan will pivot southeast towards the Canadian/ND border by early evening and into northern MN by daybreak Friday. A weak front will push southeast into ND by mid afternoon. Steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints ranging from the 50s west to low-mid 60s over eastern ND, will result in weak to moderate buoyancy. The latest model guidance indicates isolated to scattered storms developing near the boundary by early evening. Elongated hodographs will aid in storm organization (i.e., organized multicells and a few supercells). Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary risks with the stronger storms. Some of this activity may linger into the overnight as it moves east across ND late. ..Smith.. 08/23/2023 Read more

High water demand among customers of the Bayou Cannes Water System in Basile led to low water pressure in the evenings. Consequently, customers were asked to conserve water. KATC (Lafayette, La.), Aug 23, 2023

Drought was thought to be driving more cockroaches into New Orleans homes as pest control services received more calls for service. Rainfall in New Orleans is more than 22 inches below normal for this time of year, according to the National Weather Service. Axios (Arlington, Va.), Aug 23, 2023

Gov. Laura Kelly approved updated drought declarations for counties with Executive Order #23-04. The declaration has 55 counties in emergency status, 18 in warning status and 32 in watch status, reflecting an easing of condition in western Kansas while drought worsened in the east. The counties in a drought emergency were Allen, Anderson, Barton, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cloud, Coffey, Cowley, Crawford, Dickinson, Edwards, Elk, Ellis, Ellsworth, Finney, Ford, Gove, Graham, Greenwood, Harvey, Hodgeman, Jewell, Kiowa, Lane, Lincoln, Lyon, Marion, McPherson, Mitchell, Montgomery, Morris, Neosho, Ness, Norton, Osborne, Ottawa, Pawnee, Phillips, Pratt, Reno, Republic, Rice, Rooks, Rush, Russell, Saline, Sedgwick, Smith, Stafford, Sumner, Trego, Wilson and Woodson. The counties in a drought warning were Cherokee, Clay, Decatur, Douglas, Franklin, Geary, Johnson, Kingman, Labette, Linn, Miami, Osage, Pottawatomie, Riley, Shawnee, Sheridan, Wabaunsee and Washington. The counties in a drought watch were Atchison, Barber, Brown, Cheyenne, Clark, Comanche, Doniphan, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton, Harper, Haskell, Jackson, Jefferson, Kearny, Leavenworth, Logan, Marshall, Meade, Morton, Nemaha, Rawlins, Scott, Seward, Sherman, Stanton, Stevens, Thomas, Wallace, Wichita and Wyandotte. The previous declaration came on Oct. 6, 2022, when 67 counties were in emergency status, 11 in warning status and 27 on watch. WIBW-TV 13 (Topeka, Kan.), Aug 23, 2023

Drought slowed the maturity of produce on an Eyota farm, so sales began later than usual. KIMT 3 (Rochester, Minn.), Aug 22, 2023

Some cattle producers in northeast Missouri began bucket feeding cows in late May and early June. Feeding the cattle concentrate is an added expense as producers aim to stretch the pasture. KHQA-TV ABC 7 (Quincy, Ill.), Aug 18, 2023

After an early, wet spring in the Northwoods of Wisconsin, the weather has been mainly dry, allowing reservoirs to fall. Boaters were warned to be cautious about potentially striking objects in the shallow water. WXPR-FM 91.7 Public Radio (Rhinelander, Wis.), Aug 22, 2023

Sartell officials implemented a temporary twice a week irrigation schedule for residents starting Aug. 21. The city has taken these steps under the recommendation of the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. The aim was to maintain water levels and avoid extreme restrictions. KSTP-TV ABC 5 Minneapolis/St. Paul (Minn.), Aug 21, 2023

Accounts of cattle and small ruminants becoming ill and dying from possibly ingesting perilla mint continued to be reported to University of Missouri Extension specialists. Many healthy animals will not eat the plant unless there is no palatable feed available, according to a veterinarian toxicologist. Suspected cases of perilla mint poisoning have occurred in young doe goats in south central Missouri, and unconfirmed reports of cattle poisoning have also been received from the southwestern part of the state. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Aug 22, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 22 22:28:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 22 22:28:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A broad upper ridge will prevail across much of the southern and central CONUS through this week into early next week, with medium-range guidance depicting a pronounced mid-level trough impinging on the Pacific Northwest by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Hot and occasionally dry conditions will continue beneath the upper ridge across portions of the central and southern Plains into the lower MS Valley through the extended period, with no appreciable rainfall accumulations in the forecast. Surface winds should remain relatively weak across the southern CONUS, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities, though fire weather highlights may be needed if regional increases in surface winds become apparent. While several areas near and west of the Rockies will benefit from appreciable rainfall produced by the remnants of Hilary and perhaps Harold, fuels should remain dry and highly receptive to wildfire spread west of the Cascades (i.e. extreme northwest California into western Oregon and Washington). Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and west of the Cascades as a mid-level impulse tracks across the region Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. However, uncertainty regarding dry thunderstorm coverage precludes dry thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. Medium range guidance is also in agreement that potentially dry and windy surface conditions may develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest by early next week with the approach of a more pronounced mid-level trough. However, the exact placement and timing of favorable dry/windy conditions remains unclear this far in advance and more guidance consistency is needed for the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A broad upper ridge will prevail across much of the southern and central CONUS through this week into early next week, with medium-range guidance depicting a pronounced mid-level trough impinging on the Pacific Northwest by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Hot and occasionally dry conditions will continue beneath the upper ridge across portions of the central and southern Plains into the lower MS Valley through the extended period, with no appreciable rainfall accumulations in the forecast. Surface winds should remain relatively weak across the southern CONUS, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities, though fire weather highlights may be needed if regional increases in surface winds become apparent. While several areas near and west of the Rockies will benefit from appreciable rainfall produced by the remnants of Hilary and perhaps Harold, fuels should remain dry and highly receptive to wildfire spread west of the Cascades (i.e. extreme northwest California into western Oregon and Washington). Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and west of the Cascades as a mid-level impulse tracks across the region Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. However, uncertainty regarding dry thunderstorm coverage precludes dry thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. Medium range guidance is also in agreement that potentially dry and windy surface conditions may develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest by early next week with the approach of a more pronounced mid-level trough. However, the exact placement and timing of favorable dry/windy conditions remains unclear this far in advance and more guidance consistency is needed for the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND MI... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two will remain possible through the rest of the afternoon across a portion of South Texas. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat later this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Basin to the northern Rockies. Isolated severe hail will be possible across parts of Michigan early Wednesday. ...20Z Update... The 2% tornado probabilities in south TX have been trimmed to more closely align with an arc of convection to the east/northeast of TC Harold's center. While low-level shear/SRH will tend to gradually decrease with time as Harold weakens, transient low-topped supercells capable of a brief tornado or two will remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon to the north/northeast of Harold's track, as it continues to move west-northwestward. Elsewhere, no changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas. See the previous discussion below for more information, and also see MCD 2025 for more information regarding the short-term threat from parts of UT into southwest WY. ..Dean.. 08/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023/ ...South TX... TC Harold near the Lower Texas Coastal Plain will move west-northwest and weaken across South TX into this evening. Potential for a brief tornado or two should linger to the west-northwest through north relative to the center circulation. Low-topped convection along the western extent of surface dew points at or above 76 F should remain coupled with adequate low-level SRH for a few more hours inland before the environment conducive to tornadoes diminishes spatially and in magnitude late this afternoon. ...Eastern Great Basin to the northern Rockies... Similar to yesterday, a moisture plume coincident with a belt of enhanced mid-level southerlies will support sporadic strong storms, focused on central to eastern UT and western WY. A few multicells and transitory/weak supercell structures should evolve this afternoon, mainly within a corridor where differential boundary-layer heating is most pronounced. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient for storm organization, moist profiles will render weak mid-level lapse rates, limiting the overall magnitude of destabilization and the severe wind threat. ...Upper Great Lakes... A repeat scenario of elevated thunderstorm development is expected during the early morning Wednesday shifted a bit farther east relative to this morning across parts of MI. With a stronger low-level jet overnight and deeper updrafts regenerating within the zone of isentropic ascent along the fringe of an EML expanding east from northern MN to western Upper MI, a cluster convective mode should largely dominate. This will probably marginalize the severe hail risk, while severe wind gusts appear unlikely given the stable boundary layer where storms are expected to occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND MI... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two will remain possible through the rest of the afternoon across a portion of South Texas. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat later this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Basin to the northern Rockies. Isolated severe hail will be possible across parts of Michigan early Wednesday. ...20Z Update... The 2% tornado probabilities in south TX have been trimmed to more closely align with an arc of convection to the east/northeast of TC Harold's center. While low-level shear/SRH will tend to gradually decrease with time as Harold weakens, transient low-topped supercells capable of a brief tornado or two will remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon to the north/northeast of Harold's track, as it continues to move west-northwestward. Elsewhere, no changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas. See the previous discussion below for more information, and also see MCD 2025 for more information regarding the short-term threat from parts of UT into southwest WY. ..Dean.. 08/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023/ ...South TX... TC Harold near the Lower Texas Coastal Plain will move west-northwest and weaken across South TX into this evening. Potential for a brief tornado or two should linger to the west-northwest through north relative to the center circulation. Low-topped convection along the western extent of surface dew points at or above 76 F should remain coupled with adequate low-level SRH for a few more hours inland before the environment conducive to tornadoes diminishes spatially and in magnitude late this afternoon. ...Eastern Great Basin to the northern Rockies... Similar to yesterday, a moisture plume coincident with a belt of enhanced mid-level southerlies will support sporadic strong storms, focused on central to eastern UT and western WY. A few multicells and transitory/weak supercell structures should evolve this afternoon, mainly within a corridor where differential boundary-layer heating is most pronounced. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient for storm organization, moist profiles will render weak mid-level lapse rates, limiting the overall magnitude of destabilization and the severe wind threat. ...Upper Great Lakes... A repeat scenario of elevated thunderstorm development is expected during the early morning Wednesday shifted a bit farther east relative to this morning across parts of MI. With a stronger low-level jet overnight and deeper updrafts regenerating within the zone of isentropic ascent along the fringe of an EML expanding east from northern MN to western Upper MI, a cluster convective mode should largely dominate. This will probably marginalize the severe hail risk, while severe wind gusts appear unlikely given the stable boundary layer where storms are expected to occur. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will persist over the central CONUS on Day 2/Wednesday. Along its northern periphery, a belt of enhanced low/mid-level flow is expected from parts of the central Plains into the Midwest -- where a tightening pressure gradient will develop in the vicinity of surface low pressure. While breezy/gusty surface winds are expected through this corridor, somewhat marginal RH reductions and modestly receptive fuels should generally limit the fire-weather risk -- precluding highlights at this time. Farther south along the southwestern periphery of the anticyclone, breezy/gusty southeasterly surface winds are expected across southwest TX, though heating and related RH reductions could also be limited here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will persist over the central CONUS on Day 2/Wednesday. Along its northern periphery, a belt of enhanced low/mid-level flow is expected from parts of the central Plains into the Midwest -- where a tightening pressure gradient will develop in the vicinity of surface low pressure. While breezy/gusty surface winds are expected through this corridor, somewhat marginal RH reductions and modestly receptive fuels should generally limit the fire-weather risk -- precluding highlights at this time. Farther south along the southwestern periphery of the anticyclone, breezy/gusty southeasterly surface winds are expected across southwest TX, though heating and related RH reductions could also be limited here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the
coast of Central America or southern Mexico during the next few
days. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form late this week while it moves slowly northwest to
north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHERN MN...AND ALSO FOR LOWER MI...NORTHERN OH...WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday across Lower Michigan into the Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario vicinity, and also from northeast North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Lower Great Lakes region... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across the lower Great Lakes region. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of lower MI, aided by a moderate low-level jet and associated warm advection to the east of a north-south oriented baroclinic zone. Moderate MUCAPE may support an isolated hail threat before storms weaken by late morning. The baroclinic zone will move eastward as a warm front Wednesday afternoon, though its progress will be modulated by how quickly morning convection abates across lower MI. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level environment will support strong destabilization along/west of the warm front by late afternoon. Surface-based storm development cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon into the early evening across the warm sector as MLCINH diminishes. Sufficient deep-layer shear would support a conditional supercell risk with all severe hazards if surface-based development occurs, but this remains a low-probability scenario with large-scale ascent expected to generally weaken through the day as low-level warm advection shifts eastward. Another round of elevated convection associated with nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Initial development will tend to occur over southern Ontario, perhaps extending into eastern lower MI, with storms potentially evolving into a loosely organized MCS and spreading into parts of northern OH and western PA/NY with time. Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg or greater) will support some hail potential with stronger embedded cells, while isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible if more organized upscale growth occurs by early Thursday morning. ...Northern ND/MN... A weakening midlevel shortwave trough (the remnant of a trough that persisted for several days over the West) will move across parts of the northern Plains on Wednesday, around the periphery of the upper ridge. While richer low-level moisture will likely stay south of the region, some modest moistening and destabilization will be possible through the day into eastern ND and northern MN. While MLCINH will likely prohibit diurnal surface-based storm development, ascent attendant to the shortwave and continued moistening in the 850-700 mb layer may result in slightly elevated storm development during the evening. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for an elevated supercell or two, with an attendant threat of isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 08/22/2023 Read more