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Apples at an orchard in Quicksburg were about half as big as they ought to be and ripened prematurely. Without some rain soon to increase the size of the apples, the orchard owner may have to buy apples from other local orchards if there are any apples for sale. WHSV Online (Harrisonburg, Va.), Aug 24, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the
northwest or north-northwest. Interests in southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure system located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward over the central portion
of the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the Mid Atlantic and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains Friday afternoon into Friday night, accompanied by a risk of damaging wind gusts and sporadic marginal hail. ...MO/IL eastward toward VA... Strong instability will develop from the lower MS Valley across the OH Valley on Friday, with a weak front/surface trough extending from PA into IL. This area will exist beneath generally weak northwest flow aloft from MO/IL into the OH Valley, with midlevel winds on the order of 20-30 kt from OH into PA by 00Z. A dying MCS with cooling outflow will likely affect parts of WV, eastern KY and VA early in the day, but westerly winds around 850 mb will likely result in destabilization later. Otherwise, strong heating to the west and weak convergence should yield scattered storms along the length of the front, and perhaps in association with the earlier outflow which will affect KY during the afternoon. Any of these diurnal storms will have locally damaging gust potential given MLCAPE over 2000-3000 J/kg, with little organization due to weak winds aloft. However, the evolution of the early day MCS will need to be monitored, and a small corridor of higher probabilities for wind could be added in subsequent outlooks depending on trends. ...Central Plains to IL... Afternoon storms will be likely from CO eastward across southern NE/northern KS and into parts of IA near the stalled boundary. Strong heating and hot temperatures will aid development despite modest instability levels, with cooler yet still moist upslope flow over CO. Generally small to marginally severe hail will be possible as well as directional shear with height aids cellular storm mode. Stronger flow aloft on the southwest fringe of the Great Lakes upper trough may aid isolated hail potential as well from IA into IL due to slightly better shear. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2023 Read more

Pasture near Deville was dry dirt when it would normally offer green, ankle to shin high grass for livestock at this time of year. A cattle operation had gotten 60% less hay than usual after getting just one cut of hay. The sale barn in Mansura has sold twice the usual number of cattle since the start of the year. The cattle weigh less than they should. KALB-TV (Alexandria, La.), Aug 23, 2023

Residents of Allen were urged to voluntarily conserve water. The Southwest Allen Parish Water District was seeking emergency conservation for the entire system as the water supply was low from increased water demand for firefighting as more blazes were sparking amid the hot, dry conditions. The water supply was low and not keeping pace with firefighters’ demand. There has been an uptick in wildfires in the Oakdale area. American Press (Lake Charles, La.), Aug 22, 2023

Soybeans and canola in Rolette County were showing drought stress early in the day. The crops need moisture urgently. INFORUM (Fargo, N.D.), Aug. 3, 2023

A couple of marsh fires in Cameron Parish began on the morning of Saturday, Aug. 19, and burned 3,500 acres before the fires were extinguished on Aug. 21. Given the dry conditions, the public must be very careful with anything that could spark a fire. American Press (Lake Charles, La.), Aug 22, 2023

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection announced that the drought watch had been lifted for 47 counties, but remained in effect for 20 counties mainly in the southeast part of the state. The 20 counties were Adams, Berks, Bucks, Cameron, Chester, Clarion, Cumberland, Dauphin, Fayette, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton, Perry, Venango and York. Those in a drought watch are asked to curb their water use by 5% to 10%. KDKA Online (Pittsburgh, Pa.), Aug 24, 2023

Residents of Canton were asked to limit their water use to essential uses only starting Aug. 23 as drought and extreme heat continued. Over the weekend, residents of Madison were asked to curb their nightly lawn watering. WLBT Online (Jackson, Miss.), Aug 23, 2023

A 90-day burn ban was in effect for unincorporated parts of Harris County. Houston Chronicle Online (Texas), Aug 23, 2023

An electrocuted bird fell from a powerline in McKinney and sparked a grassfire, which responsible citizens quickly extinguished. KXAS-TV NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth (Texas), Aug 23, 2023

Public Wholesale Water District 26 enacted a water warning on Aug. 18. Cities affected by the move were Cottonwood Falls, Strong City and Chase County Rural Water District 1. Water use in Strong City will ideally be curbed by 10% overall and by 20% from recent peak use levels. KVOE (Emporia, Kan.), Aug 23, 2023

Kerrville has accepted the Headwaters Groundwater Conservation District’s directive to enact tougher restrictions on water use, following two weeks of discussion. Kerrville officials agreed to move to Stage 4 water restrictions as the district did on Aug. 9, due to low aquifer levels and the slow flow of the Guadalupe River. Kerrville was previously in Stage 2. San Antonio Express-News (Texas), Aug 23, 2023

WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0653 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 653 SEVERE TSTM ND 232155Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central North Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over northwest North Dakota. This activity will track eastward this evening, with a few storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of Minot ND to 80 miles east of Minot ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z An upper ridge will slowly meander westward from the Plains states toward the Rockies as an upper trough amplifies over the eastern CONUS through the remainder of this week into early next week. Broad upper troughing will also prevail across the Pacific Northwest into next week, with the possibility of a more pronounced, progressive mid-level trough overspreading the region sometime after the upcoming weekend. Amid the aforementioned synoptic pattern/evolution, two primary areas of concern exist. Prolonged hot conditions (with RH dipping into the 20-35 percent range by afternoon peak heating) will persist each day across the south-central CONUS, with little beneficial rainfall in the forecast. Though differences in timing exist in medium-range guidance, there is a consensus among the GFS and ECMWF in the passage of a cold front across the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley sometime in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period. Current indications are that this front may be dry, accompanied by little (if any) rainfall, breezy northwesterly surface flow, and fairly dry low-level air. Given highly receptive fuels, Critical conditions may occur, and Critical probabilities may be added in future outlooks pending model agreement in the timing of frontal passage. Across the Pacific Northwest, west of the Cascades, appreciable widespread rainfall has been largely absent, and is expected to remain so into next week. Fuels west of the Cascades are highly receptive to wildfire spread, supportive of efficient fire ignitions for any lightning that occurs away from soaking rain. Multiple instances of showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend. However, questions remain regarding coverage, especially west of the Cascades, given scant buoyancy. As such, dry thunderstorm probabilities/highlights may be added in future outlooks if details regarding the timing of thunderstorm development and available buoyancy are resolved. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z An upper ridge will slowly meander westward from the Plains states toward the Rockies as an upper trough amplifies over the eastern CONUS through the remainder of this week into early next week. Broad upper troughing will also prevail across the Pacific Northwest into next week, with the possibility of a more pronounced, progressive mid-level trough overspreading the region sometime after the upcoming weekend. Amid the aforementioned synoptic pattern/evolution, two primary areas of concern exist. Prolonged hot conditions (with RH dipping into the 20-35 percent range by afternoon peak heating) will persist each day across the south-central CONUS, with little beneficial rainfall in the forecast. Though differences in timing exist in medium-range guidance, there is a consensus among the GFS and ECMWF in the passage of a cold front across the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley sometime in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period. Current indications are that this front may be dry, accompanied by little (if any) rainfall, breezy northwesterly surface flow, and fairly dry low-level air. Given highly receptive fuels, Critical conditions may occur, and Critical probabilities may be added in future outlooks pending model agreement in the timing of frontal passage. Across the Pacific Northwest, west of the Cascades, appreciable widespread rainfall has been largely absent, and is expected to remain so into next week. Fuels west of the Cascades are highly receptive to wildfire spread, supportive of efficient fire ignitions for any lightning that occurs away from soaking rain. Multiple instances of showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend. However, questions remain regarding coverage, especially west of the Cascades, given scant buoyancy. As such, dry thunderstorm probabilities/highlights may be added in future outlooks if details regarding the timing of thunderstorm development and available buoyancy are resolved. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2029 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 2029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232043Z - 232315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this afternoon and evening across northwest/north-central ND. Primary severe risks with any mature storms are large hail and damaging gusts. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low in far northwest ND, approximately 50 miles north of ISN. Visible satellite shows some deeper cumulus in the vicinity of this low, with some additional shallower cumulus ahead of it. The air mass across the region continues to destabilize amid strong heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg just downstream of the surface low. Moderate mid-level flow stretches across this region as well, which is contributing to moderate/strong vertical shear. Recent mesoanalysis estimates effective bulk shear around 40-45 kt is currently in place. This moderate mid-level flow and associated moderate/strong shear is expected to persist across the region through the evening. Given these environmental conditions, a conditional risk of a supercell or two exists. Main uncertainty is whether or not updrafts can be maintained amid the potential entrainment of moderately warm and dry mid-level air. Current expectation is that at least a few storms should be able to persist, although, given the subtle forcing, it could be a few hours before updrafts are able to mature. Any storms that do mature/persist would likely become supercellular with a subsequent risk for large hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48450383 49030342 49009924 47529992 47300149 47380238 47710309 48450383 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER GREAT LAKES...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and northern North Dakota, centered on this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... Only minor changes were made to the previous convective outlook. 1) Extension of 5-percent and 15-percent wind probabilities farther south into southeast OH and WV. The 12z NSSL WRF had the best depiction of storm activity across eastern OH compared to other 12z CAMS and recent HRRR runs. The northerly flow across the upper OH Valley will aid in storm motions to the south. Some moisture advection into eastern OH in the 925-850 mb layer will act to destabilize the airmass downstream of the ongoing storms in eastern OH. 2) Remove a tier of counties in northern Lower MI from 5-percent hail probabilities. A considerable spatial extent of stratus will likely be maintained across northern Lower MI and this will likely limit overall destabilization and the hail risk. ..Smith.. 08/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023/ ...Lower Great Lakes... A relatively low confidence but conditionally favorable environment for severe storms is expected through tonight with above-average spread in potential outcomes from minimal coverage to a mesoscale-focused swath of fairly numerous reports. Elevated convection is ongoing across eastern Lower MI to southern ON. This may not entirely decay during the afternoon, with a threat for isolated, marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts potentially persisting southeastward in eastern OH/western PA. To the west, a very unstable air mass will gradually advect east across much of southern Lower MI through western OH in tandem with an EML expanding from the Upper Midwest. A substantial baroclinic zone supported by pronounced differential boundary-layer heating will yield a sizable thermal gradient across the northwest to southeast-oriented warm front. The surface warm sector should remain capped but there are a few models, namely the 12Z ARW-NSSL and 00Z ECMWF which suggest convection should develop along the warm front and into the warm sector. The more probable scenario is for regenerative elevated convection to increase again after sunset. Forecast soundings suggest that deep-layer flow may remain relatively constant with height near the warm front which would limit cloud-bearing shear, with more favorable deep-layer shear farther east coincident with lesser instability. As such, a cluster convective mode will likely dominate with relatively equal threats for large hail and damaging winds. ...ND... An MCV over southeast SK will move east across southern MB into northwest ON tonight. While the bulk of convection attendant to this MCV may remain north of the international border, trailing development into ND will become increasingly likely towards early evening along the apex of a differential boundary-layer heating corridor centered over central ND. There should be favorable zone for a couple supercells across a portion of north-central to northeast ND within the MLCAPE/CIN gradient that should orient from northwest to southeast. Large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two will be possible during the evening before convection tends to weaken overnight closer to the Red River Valley. Read more

Brownwood was in Stage 2 water restrictions as Lake Brownwood was 8 feet below the spillway on Aug. 23. The lake was at 65.8% capacity, compared to 66.6% one week ago. People were urged to pray for rain. Brownwood News (Texas), Aug 23, 2023