Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 16 22:12:01 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 20:46:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 21:35:57 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 162044 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Hilary has not changed much this afternoon. A large burst of convection, with cloud top temperatures colder than -85 degrees C, continues to obscure the low-level circulation and some outflow has developed on the southern semicircle of the storm. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 43 kt and the initial intensity is remains at 35 kt. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. Hilary is forecast to gradually turn, first to the northwest by day 2 and then to the north-northwest by day 3 with the same general forward motion. This is likely driven by a building ridge over the United States and a trough off the coast of California. The short-term track prediction has shifted to the right of the previous forecast, largely due to an adjustment in the rather uncertain initial position. It is closest to the simple consensus aid, TVCE. Strengthening is still expected due to the conducive atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperatures. Hilary is forecast to be in an area of weak vertical wind shear through 72-96 hours and remain over warm waters through 72 hours. Therefore, steady to rapid intensification is anticipated and the official forecast shows Hilary becoming a hurricane in 24 hours. However, the system is broad and it could take slightly longer to initially consolidate and strengthen. Beyond day 3, Hilary is forecast to cross over a gradient of cooling ocean waters which should induce a weakening trend. The system is still expected to be post-tropical by the end of the forecast period. It is important to remind users to not focus on the exact forecast track and intensity of Hilary, especially in the latter parts of the forecast period. Due to the nearly parallel angle of approach to the Baja California peninsula, small changes in the cross track position may result in large changes to when and where the system ultimately approaches the coast. Regardless, wind and rainfall impacts are likely to extend far from the center of Hilary. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hilary has the potential to bring impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend. Although it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of rainfall and wind impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. 2. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the next days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 13.7N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 14.5N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 15.6N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 16.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 20.0N 112.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 27.8N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 34.3N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 162044 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) OXNARD CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OXNARD CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) SANTA CRUZ IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SANTA CRUZ IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 8(62) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 2(67) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 1(21) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 1(29) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 105W 50 39 21(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 105W 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 39(43) 13(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 76(86) 9(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 18(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 16(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 1(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 2(44) X(44) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 56(71) 1(72) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 1(38) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 30N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 162043 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...HILARY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.7W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be required for a portion of that area as soon as this evening. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.7 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest by Friday followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast for the next few days. Hilary is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HILARY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 the center of Hilary was located near 13.7, -103.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 162043 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 105.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.6N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 112.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 160SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.3N 118.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

MD 2005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162039Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or perhaps slightly behind a cold front across northern Minnesota late this afternoon or early this evening. This region continues to destabilize with MLCAPE around 750 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and it is expected to increase to as high as 1500 J/kg later this evening. Currently the airmass remains capped, but additional surface heating and cooling temperatures aloft should mostly eliminate inhibition by around 22 UTC. Once storms form, strong mid-level flow at least partially normal to the front should support a broken line of supercells. Instability will start to wane quickly after sunset and a drier airmass is present across Wisconsin. Therefore, storms may persist for a few hours after dark but are expected to weaken by late evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from this activity. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 48319083 48179010 48078967 47878965 47389035 46759087 46349152 45559288 45439399 45419512 45539551 45689571 46129523 47299386 48299245 48449212 48159152 48229110 48319083 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A weak upper low will continue to remain nearly stationary off the California coast into the weekend. Model guidance varies on the speed at which this feature will eventually move north/east. Much depends on the upper-level pattern evolution across the Northwest as well as the track of what is currently tropical storm Hillary in the eastern Pacific. That being said, uncertainty in the forecast increases markedly by early next week. Hot and dry conditions will return to Texas where fuels remain extremely dry. ...Northern California into the Northwest... Chances for thunderstorms will continue in to the weekend. Potential for wetting rainfall will increase with time, particularly in northern California. Depending on the upper-level trough in the Northwest, some mid-level moisture may be pushed eastward late this week. There is some potential for thunderstorms to develop in parts of central/northeast Oregon on Friday/Saturday, but storm coverage is not certain nor is how dry the storms will be. Critical fire weather will continue in the Columbia Basin as the mid-level winds increase across the Cascades on Friday. Potential for additional thunderstorms/rainfall will exist as tropical moisture moves northward. The timing and location of this activity is not certain as the GFS is faster and farther east than the ECMWF. Moisture could enter these areas late this weekend into potentially Tuesday/Wednesday. In either case, wetting rainfall seems probable with these storms. ...Montana... Another day of critical fire weather is possible for parts of western Montana on Friday. Strong westerly winds are expected ahead of a cold front. Models agree that cold front will not move through the area until late afternoon/early evening. RH could be marginal (around 20%), but winds of 20-25 mph will be possible. ...Texas... Very hot conditions will increase again for parts of western/central Texas. Winds are not expected to be overly strong underneath the upper-level ridge. As surface lows develop in the strong heating, there is some possibility for locally elevated fire weather conditions given the very dry fuels. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 162034 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 Fernanda's weakening trend appears to be continuing. Deep convection remains minimal, and is confined to a few cells over the southwestern portion of the circulation while the system moves over marginal SSTs and into a dry low- to mid-level air mass. There have been no recent scatterometer overpasses from which to estimate intensity. Assuming a continued spin down of the circulation, the advisory intensity is set to a somewhat uncertain 45 kt. The cyclone has been moving just slightly south of due west or 260/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain established to the north of Fernanda through 72 hours. This should maintain a mostly westward track for the next few days. There is little change to the new official track forecast, which remains close to the multi-model dynamical consensus. Sea surface temperatures beneath the cyclone should gradually decrease and the environmental air mass is expected to become even drier over the next couple of days. Therefore, continued weakening is expected which should result in Fernanda degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours and dissipating within 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.8N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 17/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 16.7N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 16.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 16.7N 140.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 20:34:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 21:23:05 GMT

...FERNANDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 16 the center of Fernanda was located near 16.8, -127.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...FAR WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected this afternoon and evening across parts Minnesota, Wisconsin, and western Upper Michigan. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 08/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/ ...MN/WI/Western Upper MI... Latest surface analysis shows a strong cold front surging southeastward across ND. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front, along with shallow vertical mixing below a capping inversion, have resulted in a corridor of low-mid 60s dewpoints across much of MN. Strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 2500 J/kg. The cap will likely focus thunderstorm development to immediately along or even slightly behind the cold front, but given the strong winds aloft and focused convergence, a few intense bowing structures are expected. Damaging winds and hail appear to be the main threats. Storms will likely persist a few hours after dark and track into parts of northern/central WI and western Upper MI before weakening. ...southern GA/SC/FL... A very moist/unstable air mass will be present again today ahead of a cold front sagging into the southeast states. Winds aloft and large scale forcing are weak, suggesting convection will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and water-loading will contribute to isolated instances of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLUMBIA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level high pressure is forecast to continue building as it shifts eastward over the southern Rockies/Plains through the forecast period. To the west, a Pacific trough will overspread the Northwest, increasing mid-level flow into the Northern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Monsoon moisture will also support shower and thunderstorm chances over southern parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... As the upper ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will turn westerly as a Pacific trough begins to approach. While initially modest, winds are forecast to gradually increase through the day. At the same time, a thermally induced surface pressure trough/weak lee cyclone will bolster low-level pressure gradients in the lee of the Cascades, through the Columbia Basin and into northern MT. This will result in downslope winds of 20-25 mph, along with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. Widespread elevated and critical conditions are likely over the Northwest and parts of the northern Rockies where fuels are quite dry. Confidence in critical conditions is highest across the western Columbia Basin where RH is forecast to be lower and winds slightly stronger. To the south, monsoon moisture will linger over parts of southern OR and northern CA, supporting scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATS climbing above 1 inch and only modest storm speeds. However, area fuels remain very dry and receptive to lightning ignitions. While storms will tend to be come more efficient with wetting rains through the day, sufficient coverage should exist for isolated dry strikes outside of heavier cores across parts of southern OR and far northern CA. ...Central Texas... As the upper ridge rebuilds, very hot temperatures are expected across parts of TX and the southern Plains. Winds are forecast to remain weak, but temperatures well over 100F and exceptionally dry fuels may support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Especially across central portions of the state, local winds may occasionally reach 10-15 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Fernanda, located well to
the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and has begun issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Hilary, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Hilary are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Hilary are issued under WMO header WTPZ24
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Trees at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chaska were turning color and dropping their leaves early in mid-August due to stress from drought and/or heat. More borer damage occurred on trees that might not have happened otherwise. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis) , Aug 15, 2023

The Lower Colorado River Authority entered Stage 2 drought response on Monday, Aug. 14, and asked all firm water customers (municipalities, water districts and industries) to curb their water use by 10% to 20% and to enact mandatory water restrictions. The combined storage in Lake Travis and Buchanan, the two water supply reservoirs in the Highland Lakes, dropped below 900,000 acre-feet over the weekend, putting them at 46% of capacity. Customers were urged to reduce landscape watering. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), Aug 15, 2023

The Lower Colorado River Authority announced that Highland Lakes water will not be available in 2023 for most of its agricultural customers in Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda counties. Severe drought continues in the Texas Hill Country, affecting inflows and levels in the region’s water supply reservoirs at Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis. Agricultural customers in the Gulf Coast, Lakeside and Pierce Ranch operations lost access to Highland Lakes water this year, due to drought intensity and duration and the amount of water in the lakes. The combined water storage in Lakes Buchanan and Travis on March 1 was 1.037 million acre-feet, about 52% of capacity. LCRA remains in Stage 1 of its Drought Contingency Plan for Firm Water Customers, which began in July 2022. The combined storage in Lakes Buchanan and Travis was 1.2 million acre-feet, below the trigger of 1.4 million acre-feet, and interruptible supplies were curtailed. LCRA requested its firm customers voluntarily reduce their water use by 5% in July 2022. KXAN-TV NBC 36 (Austin, Texas), March 2, 2023

The town of Fairbury declared a water emergency. Lawn watering is permitted on an even/odd schedule depending on address. NewsChannel Nebraska (Grand Island), Aug 15, 2023

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S RDU TO 20 SSE RZZ. ..KERR..08/15/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC065-083-101-163-191-195-152340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDGECOMBE HALIFAX JOHNSTON SAMPSON WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more