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A boil water advisory was issued by the Plaquemines Parish Government for a portion of Port Sulphur after a 20-inch water main break on the morning of Tuesday, Aug. 15. Residents and businesses across Plaquemines Parish have been urged to conserve water due to extreme heat and drought. WDSU (New Orleans, La.), Aug 15, 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts should be most common this through this evening from central North Carolina to southern New Jersey. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to severe probabilities based on current location of the surface front and ongoing convection. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. Reference ongoing severe thunderstorm watches 649 and 650, and forthcoming MCDs for short term severe storm info. ..Leitman.. 08/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023/ ...NC to Mid-Atlantic Region... Morning water vapor imagery shows a large upper low over northwest OH, with a band of 50-60 knot southwesterly mid/upper level winds extending from TN/KY into the Mid-Atlantic region and southern New England. The associated surface cold front runs along/just west of the spine of the Appalachians from PA into east TN. Mostly clear skies ahead of the front will combine with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to yield a very unstable air mass by mid-afternoon, with forecast soundings showing MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. This should result in intensifying clusters of storms from western NC into central VA/southeast PA tracking eastward through the afternoon and early evening. Strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates, and high moisture content will likely result in bowing structures and a few supercells capable of severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor changes were made to the dry thunder area in northern California to account for current guidance. The forecast otherwise remains on track. ..Wendt.. 08/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level high pressure is forecast to build over the western US while a weak upper low moves off the West Coast. Across the central US, a mid-level trough is forecast to move out of southern Canada with an accompanying surface cold front sweeping southeastward across the northern Rockies. Dry downslope winds are likely to support locally elevated fire-weather concerns over parts of northern MT. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Northwest. ...Northwest... Another round of showers and high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA and southern OR D2/Wed, as the upper low moves off the West Coast. Monsoon moisture will continue to increase with PWATs exceeding 1 inch. With the low farther offshore, easterly flow aloft will slacken, resulting in gradually diminishing storm speeds. Widely scattered, initially dry, storms are expected, but precipitation efficiency should rise through the day as storms slow down and moisture values increase. While QPF is forecast to increase with time, very dry and receptive fuels, along with initially dry storms, will favor some risk for lightning ignitions. ...Northern Rockies... As the Alberta trough continues to move south into the US, a cold front/wind shift will move through the northern Rockies early D2/Wed. Gusty northwest winds will remain strong through the day with downslope gusts of 15-20 mph possible. While RH values will likely be higher from the cooler air mass behind the front, diurnal minimums below 35% are expected. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given dry fuels and breezy conditions across much of northern MT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern
coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days or so, while the system moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Delgado

Less than 24 hours after the announcement of Stage 2 water restrictions, the city of Beaumont entered Stage 3 due to high water demand. Water customers used 39 million gallons daily for three consecutive days. Under Stage 3 restrictions, the aim is to reduce water use by 12.5%. Beaumont Enterprise (Texas), Aug 15, 2023

Some water customers of Texas Water Company were in stage four watering restrictions due to intense heat and exceptional drought conditions. Nearly half of the counties served by Texas Water Company were already in stage four, including Bandera, Medina and Kendall counties, while the other half of the service area remained in stage three water restrictions. Outdoor water use is prohibited in stage four water restrictions. Texas Water Company draws from the Trinity Aquifer as its primary water source. News 4 San Antonio (Texas), Aug 13, 2023

Junction City was in the third week of a water emergency with all water users to limit their water use by 30%. Outdoor watering was limited to 15 minutes per day. Restaurants must post drought notices and only offer water if the customer requests it. KEZI Online (Eugene, Ore.), Aug 11, 2023

Monroe was in a stage 2 moderate water emergency with the goal of mandatorily reducing water use by 30% due to drought and an equipment failure at the city’s water plant. Outdoor watering was limited to 15 minutes per day. Restaurants must post drought notices and only offer water if the customer requests it. KEZI Online (Eugene, Ore.), Aug 11, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 14 22:18:01 UTC 2023.

MD 1995 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1995 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Areas affected...Southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142056Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front may pose an isolated hail and wind risk this afternoon and evening. However, watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front across the Midwest have been slow to mature over the past few hours, but imagery from KIND has shown improving organization of a few cells over the past 30-60 minutes. Temperatures warming into the low 80s ahead of the cold front have allowed MLCAPE values to increase to around 1000 J/kg, and recent forecast soundings and KIND VWP observations show elongated, nearly straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near 45 knots. The strongly sheared environment may compensate for the otherwise marginal buoyancy and support sufficient storm organization for a large hail/severe wind threat. Initially discrete cells have shown a tendency for slow upscale growth, and this trend should continue into the evening hours, which may modulate the severe threat to some degree. Storms moving into central IN they will likely encounter a noted buoyancy gradient along a warm front, which should limit the northward extent of the severe threat. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated given modest downstream buoyancy and lackluster storm organization thus far. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38038831 39118739 39778695 40098660 40058573 39858490 39498478 38868518 38298585 38028649 37858709 37788762 37788802 38038831 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level ridge will shift east through the period. Along the West Coast, a weak upper low will continue to the north and slightly west. Toward the weekend, model guidance suggests that this feature will phase with a trough that will move southward into the Northwest. ...Northwest... Both thunderstorm and wind/RH concerns will be present during the extended period. Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, but coverage will likely be rather isolated. Storm coverage will begin to increase Thursday into the weekend with a general trend for storms to occur farther north each day. The overall potential for lightning ignitions remains uncertain as PWAT values will also be on the increase over time. There may be, however, a period of time where a few drier storms are possible. Mid-level winds increase with northward extent. As thunderstorms move into the Blue Mountain vicinity on Thursday would be the area and time of greatest concern. Model trends will need to be monitored, but confidence remains too low for highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also increase in the coming days. The thermal pressure trough in the Columbia Basin will continue to develop most afternoons. Westerly mid-level winds will also increase as a trough moves toward the Northwest. These features will drive strong surface winds through the Cascades into the Columbia Basin. Some potential for critical fire weather will exist on Thursday and Friday. ...Montana... Critical fire weather is probable on Thursday as westerly winds aloft increase across the northern Rockies. A surface low will also deepen to the north of the region. These factors will promote strong downslope winds within and to the lee of the terrain in parts of western Montana. Ahead of the cold front passage on Friday, strong westerly winds may persist within the same areas. Confidence on critically low RH is less than on Thursday, however. ...Northern California... Thunderstorms will be possible in the region each day through the weekend. PWAT values will generally come up quickly, however. With time, guidance does show a signal for dry air being pulled northward. A few drier storms may occur during the weekend, but the degree of fire weather risk is unclear as storms will have occurred on previous days over the same areas. ...Texas... Cooler conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday. Thereafter, hot conditions will likely return for parts of western/central Texas. With a surface trough/low developing, some increase in surface winds can be expected. Winds still appear too light for critical fire weather, but trends will need to be monitored given the very dry fuels. Furthermore, thunderstorms could develop. Some risk of lightning ignitions would exist with this activity. ..Wendt.. 08/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 142036 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 Fernanda has been maintaining a well-defined eye some 10 n mi in diameter with very cold surrounding convective cloud tops. The upper-level outflow pattern remains well defined, particularly to the north. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 115 kt and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS are also near that value. Thus the intensity estimate is held at 115 kt, i.e. category 4 strength, for this advisory. Although there have been some trochoidal wobbles in the motion, which is fairly common in intense hurricanes, the overall motion continues to be westward or slightly north of westward at a rather slow pace, 6 kt. The mid-level ridge to the north of Fernanda is still rather weak due to the influence of a cutoff low near the California coast. Global model predictions show the ridge becoming better established over the next several days, which should result in some increase in forward speed. In 3-5 days, the shallower and weaker cyclone is likely to be carried on a westward track following the lower-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track is basically an extension of the previous one and remains in good agreement with the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. Although it is likely that Fernanda has reached its peak intensity, the hurricane should remain in a favorable SST and atmospheric thermodynamic environment until tonight so some additional short-term strengthening is possible. After about 12 hours, the influences of drier air and cooler waters should begin to take their toll, so the official forecast shows a steady weakening trend in 1-4 days. This is in good agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 119.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 130.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Aug 2023 20:36:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Aug 2023 21:23:01 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 142035 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 142035 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 ...FERNANDA MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 119.0W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 119.0 West. Fernanda is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Fernanda is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although a little more strengthening is possible later today, a weakening trend is likely to begin late tonight or early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...FERNANDA MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 14 the center of Fernanda was located near 15.9, -119.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 142034 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.2N 122.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.9N 130.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across portions of the Midwest, Kentucky and Tennessee, and extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic Region. ...20z Update... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been expanded northwest across parts of eastern IA along the occluded surface front. While instability remains modest across this area, low-level vorticity is maximized along the boundary and beneath the cold core upper trough/low. 3 km MLCAPE is around 100-125 J/kg, though 0-1 km SRH is expected to remain modest. A couple of funnel clouds and/or a brief tornado will be possible the remainder of the afternoon with this activity. Some gusty winds or small hail also could accompany stronger cores. Reference MCD 1994 for more short term details. The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) as been removed from portions of northern KY into southern OH and southwest PA. Earlier day convection and persistent cloud cover has precluded much destabilization this afternoon. While some airmass recovery will continue into the evening in low-level warm advection ahead of the synoptic cold front, overall conditions appear only marginally favorable for isolated strong storms. Otherwise, modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across western KY/TN and northeast OH/western PA based on latest observed data and model forecast guidance. ..Leitman.. 08/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023/ ...TN Valley into Mid-Atlantic... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low moving from IA into northern IL, with a relatively strong mid/upper level jet max rotating into the lower OH and TN Valleys. Widespread remnant clouds from overnight storms cover much of the OH/TN Valleys into the central Appalachians, which is limiting heating/destabilization. Despite rather strong westerly flow aloft and ample low-level moisture, muted heating will keep any severe risk rather low/localized through mid-afternoon. Some intensification of this activity may occur as it spreads east of the mountains into parts of PA/VA/NC, where strong heating is occurring. But this scenario is also relatively low confidence. Later this afternoon and evening, slow clearing/heating will eventually likely result in a pocket of rather strong CAPE from parts of middle/east TN into southeast KY. This area is probably the highest confidence in at least widely scattered strong to severe storms as the cold front approaches. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear for a few bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. Time-of-day would be a negative, but there is some risk of storms maintaining some intensity as they move into the mountains of WV/western VA/western NC tonight. ...PA/NJ after dark... Most 12z CAM solutions continue to indicate that low-level winds will intensify after dark over parts of eastern PA as a shortwave trough rotates into the area. Favorable low-level shear profiles suggest some risk of rotating cells and tornado or two, although weak lapse rates and time-of-day will be unfavorable for robust updrafts. ...Northern IL... An occluded surface front extends northwestward from central IN into northern IL. Persistent clouds are limited heating in this area, but a zone of low-level convergence/vorticity will be present through the afternoon. A few rotating storms cannot be ruled out by mid/late afternoon, with a non-zero risk of a tornado or hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor modifications were made to the dry thunder area in the Northwest based on updated guidance. An area of dry conditions also appears probable in parts of central/eastern Texas behind the cold front. Winds however, will remain rather light at 10-15 mph which should mitigate some fire spread potential within the very dry fuels. ..Wendt.. 08/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, mid-level ridging is forecast to intensify as a weak upper low moves offshore across western CA. Predominantly weak mid-level flow should keep winds light over much of the western US. Monsoon moisture drawn northward with the upper low may support showers and thunderstorms into parts of northern CA and southern OR. ...Northwest... As the upper low continues to move offshore, easterly mid-level flow will overspread northern CA and southern OR late D1/Mon into early D2/Tues. Showers, and a few thunderstorms, are possible through the early morning hours, and again with additional storms possible in the afternoon and evening. Storm coverage remains very uncertain with hi-res model guidance varying widely in the possible solutions. With weak elevated buoyancy and broad synoptic ascent from the passing low, isolated storms do appear possible. The dry low levels would also favor drier storms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Given the dry and receptive fuels, and at least some risk for lightning, an IsoDryT area has been added despite some uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Northern Rockies... A slight increase in mid-level flow from an approaching Alberta low will help bolster downslope surface winds over parts of northern MT late D2/Tues. Downslope gusts of 15-20 mph are possible, along with relatively low RH below 35%. The temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions will be limited by the arrival of the strongest winds overnight. However, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Fish, plants and other wildlife were threatened as water sources run low. Barton Springs Pool, for example, is home to the Barton Springs salamander and the Austin blind salamander. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug 14, 2023