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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The low level of the Waccamaw River has limited the activities that a river outfitter can offer. Guests might want to go tubing down the river, but there was not enough current or depth for tubing. Kayaking was still an option. WMBF-TV NBC Myrtle Beach (S.C.), July 10, 2024

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024 Read more