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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MUCH OF THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, and the lower Great Lakes. The greatest potential for severe/damaging winds appears to be across eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona and the New England region. ...Synopsis... A complex severe-weather setup is anticipated for today across the Midwest with the potential for one or more severe MCSs. The details of how the severe threat will evolve this afternoon/evening will be conditional on convective evolution of ongoing MCSs across ND and IL/IN through 12 UTC, which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast. In general, a broad surface cyclone is forecast to deepen slightly over the upper Great Lakes over the next 12-24 hours as a low-amplitude mid-level wave traverses the northern CONUS. As this occurs, a weak cold front (noted in surface obs across MT and the western Dakotas as of 05 UTC) will migrate south into the Midwest and central Plains by late afternoon. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is anticipated along this boundary and on the northern periphery of a reservoir of a high theta-e air mass in place over the central Plains. ...Midwest... Recent CAM guidance depicts a range of possible scenarios for the next 24 hour period. The most probable scenario involves the cluster of thunderstorms ongoing across the Dakotas as of 05 UTC, which will likely weaken by 12 UTC as it approaches the mid-MS River Valley. The remnants of this complex may act as foci for re-development by mid to late afternoon on the northeastern periphery of a reservoir of high theta-e air (denoted by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) across IA, southern WI, and northern IL. Thunderstorms emerging from this zone will likely organize and intensify into an organized MCS as it propagates southeast into eastern IA and northern IL. If the ND cluster weakens substantially by late morning, convective initiation will likely be focused along the cold front as it migrates south and/or along a residual outflow boundary from ongoing storms. The location of initiation varies in latest model solutions, which introduces uncertainty on where the corridors of relatively higher severe-wind potential will be established. Higher wind probabilities were placed based on where ensemble guidance shows the best QPF signal, which likely correlates to where deep convection will most likely occur. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest sufficient low-level SRH may be in place to support a tornado threat across eastern IA into northern IL; however, this threat will likely be conditional on realizing a predominantly discrete storm mode prior to upscale growth and/or embedded circulations with an organized MCS. ...Northeast... 05 UTC regional radar imagery reveals a mature MCS ongoing across northern IL/IN. A vorticity maximum associated with this system is apparent over lower Lake Michigan, and is expected to migrate east, reaching the lower Great Lakes by around 18 UTC. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly modest across New England per 00 UTC soundings, but dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s should support around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Thunderstorm development ahead of the MCV appears likely based on latest CAM guidance, and slightly augmented flow in the vicinity of the vorticity maximum should result in around 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear. These environmental conditions will likely be sufficient to support organized convective clusters within a somewhat focused corridor across parts of PA and NY. ...Central High Plains... Steep mid-level lapse rates and mid-level moisture across the central Rockies will foster another day of widely scattered thunderstorms across CO and WY. Storms will migrate into the central High Plains by late afternoon amid a mean easterly flow regime. Weak low-level storm-relative winds and a deeply mixed boundary layer should yield outflow-dominant storms, but stronger mid-level flow compared to previous days may favor some thunderstorm clustering/cold pool amalgamation. Consequently, a more focused corridor of severe-wind potential may emerge across the central High Plains. While the exact location of where such clusters may emerge remains uncertain, ensemble guidance suggests this is most probable across the NE Panhandle into northeast CO/northwest KS. ...Southeast Arizona... Thunderstorm development is expected again along the eastern portions of the Mongollon Rim and out of the Gila region of southwest NM. Southwesterly flow out of Gulf of California will maintain dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s that should support MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Warm temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s should support another day of 40-50 F dewpoint depressions amid deep boundary-layer mixing. Storms moving off the terrain will be capable of strong to severe downburst winds as they migrate into the buoyant, but deeply mixed environment at lower elevations. ..Moore/Darrow.. 07/15/2024 Read more

757
ABPZ20 KNHC 150502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This wave is slightly
better organized than yesterday, and environmental conditions
could become more conducive for further development in a day or so.
This system could become a tropical depression mid- to late-week
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Moderate to severe drought conditions exist in the Potomac River Basin, according to the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin. One farmer notes that his Rhode Island Red chickens are feeling effects of the heat - they spend time in front of fans and their egg production is down by 30%. The farmer is growing table crops such as heirloom tomatoes in containers that promote water conservation. He is also concerned about a hay field that has turned yellow instead of green and a pond that has receded several feet during the drought. WTOP News (Washington, DC), 7/11/24.

The Little Pee Dee River (Davis Landing, Marion County, SC) has been affected by a severe drought and is now too shallow for swimming and boating. ABC4 News (Charleston, SC), 7/12/24.

Kendall, Medina, Comal, and Blanco counties will be under Stage 4 water restrictions starting July 16. Bexar County and San Antonio are under Stage 3 water restrictions. Water levels in Kendall County aquifers are 22 feet below the June historical average, while several important streams in the area range from 5-15% of historical streamflow. MySA (San Antonio, TX), 7/15/24.

Virginia has experienced extreme heat and low rainfall this year, and trees are beginning to die due to lack of water. A District Forester emphasizes the importance of taking care of younger trees that cannot withstand the heat, but mature trees are also at risk. Urban trees and forests alike are in need of rain. WHSV3 (Harrisonburg, VA), 7/12/24.

All of North Carolina is either in a drought or under "abnormally dry" conditions for the first time in 15 years. Nearly 90% of the state is considered under moderate, severe, or extreme drought. Crop losses in the state are widespread. For instance, 40% of the state's corn crop is in "very poor" condition. It may be too late to undo the damage to many crops. Drought conditions have deteriorated unusually rapidly. A farmer told WECT that it will take years to recover from the financial effects of the current drought, and that he has never seen conditions like this. Axios Raleigh (Raleigh, NC), 7/11/24.

With below-average rain and scorching temperatures, the ongoing drought continues to affect many farmers in Western North Carolina. Don Justus, a farmer and the owner of Justus Orchard in Hendersonville, says that he is concerned about the orchard's crops as the drought worsens. We are concerned about it at this time of the season," he said. "With us having about 75 acres of apple orchard here, sadly we're at the mercy of Mother Nature. We do not have any type of irrigation. Justus' family has grown and raised apples for four generations. "We have one of the best apple crops that we've had in several years. They are continuing to grow because we had so much rain in the early season," he said. Justus says that he has been working to address the drought as it persists. As the orchard closely watches for the forecast, Justus says that they are hoping for more precipitation. "Hopefully, we will continue to have a little bit more rain this weekend," he added. Justus says that they have a plan in place. "We are starting to conserve water. We've been doing a pretty good bit of that in the past, but we are being more self-conscious about it now," he said. "We will probably be reaching out to some of our fellow farmers about borrowing or renting overhead irrigation to put some water onto the apples. I'm hoping to get some rain this weekend." ABC13 News (Asheville, NC), 7/11/24.

Lewis and Upshur counties, West Virginia, are drier than the rest of the North Central West Virginia region. Moderate drought, as classified by the United States Drought Monitor, has affected agriculture and fire departments. In many areas of Lewis County, one hay cutting has been done, but regrowth is poor due to lack of moisture and may compromise the second cutting. Cattle farmers are also having to haul in water as their ponds and springs are not providing enough water. Firefighters in rural areas have fewer water sources, making portable pumps are harder to use. The fire chief of the Buckhannon Fire Department recommended that people not burn materials outdoors given the present dryness. The Exponent Telegram (Clarksburg, WV), 7/12/24.

Drought in the Myrtle Beach area - classified as "extreme" in parts of Horry County - has been detrimental to local golf courses. Course managers are rationing water in the midst of brown, burned out grass conditions on the courses. The Arcadian Shores Golf Club cut their green fees due to the unfavorable grass conditions. The area received a substantial amount of rain last week on Thursday and Friday, but it was not enough to completely resolve the drought issues. As of Tuesday, coastal areas of Horry County were in moderate drought, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center. Inland areas of the county were considered to be in severe or extreme drought. Georgetown County had areas considered to be abnormally dry or in moderate drought. My Horry News (Myrtle Beach, SC), 7/13/24.

From drought to flooding to extreme heat Missouri summers are not easy for farmers. This time last summer, Missouri was in the midst of its seventh driest growing season, according to Missouri Soybeans. Now, less than 5% of the state is in any level of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. But as the drought subsided, flooding was seen across Missouri this summer. So far this year, Missouri is getting the most rain it’s seen since 2019, according to the University of Missouri Climate Center. This week, extreme heat is hitting Missouri. Missouri State Emergency Management warns of extreme temperatures up to 110 degrees. Extreme weather during Missouri’s growing season makes it difficult for farmers. “We have extreme weather, we can’t stop it, but we have to become more resilient,” said farmer Matthew Van Schyndel. Whatever the weather, Van Schyndel works on his family-owned farm Hedge Holler Harvest in Mexico, Missouri. The family raises cattle, goats and chickens, and sells the meat, eggs and other products locally. Van Schyndler said the fluctuating weather has led to changes in his production costs. “Last year obviously with the drought feed prices were extremely high,” Van Schyndel said. “And so, we had to adjust. Well, this year it’s processing.” In order to combat the changing weather and become more resilient, Van Schyndel said he is adding more organic matter to his soil and adjusting his animals’ grazing patterns. Agriculture is one of Missouri’s biggest economic contributors. A 2021 economic study from the Missouri Department of Agriculture shows the industry contributed over $93 billion to the state’s economy and is responsible for over 450,000 jobs. University of Missouri agriculture professor Rob Myers said going from near-record drought to near-record rainfalls in under a year is a bigger change than usual, and extremes like these may become more common. “Our climatologists would tell us that any single weather event is difficult to pin on climate change, but what we can say is there’s a pattern of more intensity to storms and more frequent dry periods,” Myers said. KFVS (Cape Girardeau, MO), 7/15/24.

Several areas in the Columbia and Yakima river basins are unusually dry. Yakima Basin irrigators are receiving around 51% of their normal allotment this year. Columbia Basin Herald (Moses Lake, WA). July 15, 2024.

The Great Lakes have experienced an increase in toxic blue-green algae, according the the Iowa Regents’ Lakeside Lab. Years of drought filled the lakes with with high levels of nitrogen, phosphorus, and contaminated sediment. Combined with warm conditions, these components encourage growth of blue-green algae. Radio Iowa (Des Moines, IA), 7/15/24.

With parts of the Midlands experiencing unprecedented drought conditions, the federal government is offering financial relief to some farmers. As of Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor placed extreme drought designations on eight counties, including three in the Midlands. This opens up Sumter, Lee and Clarendon counties – along with neighboring counties – to federal assistance through the USDA Farm Service Agency. “These programs are put in place to help the farmer hopefully survive until the next season when they can get a successful crop, and still be able to continue farming,” said State Executive Director for the South Carolina Farm Service Agency Laurie Slade Funderburk. “Our mission is to keep farmer farming and to keep farmers on the farm,” Funderburk said. Their work, though unpredictable, is essential to the state and the nation, Funderburk said. Sweltering temperatures and lack of rainfall this summer has put a strain on the agribusiness industry. With drought status reaching a critical point, farmers can receive emergency loans and disaster assistance. Calhoun County farmer Joshua Johnson, who operates Old Tyme Bean Company, said drought conditions this year are the worst he has ever seen. “It’s going to severely damage our yield and our profitability,” he said in a Wednesday interview. The federal designation triggers a disaster declaration from Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, which in turn means that the affected farmers will be eligible for federal programs. Any farmers in the impacted counties can apply for loans up to $500,000 with interest rates no higher than three percent. “These funds can be used to pay for operating and household expenses,” Funderburk said. “They can also be used to reimburse farmers for lost working capital.” There is also a separate program for livestock producers called the Livestock Forage Program, which covers grazing losses for covered livestock. If approved, this funding provides three payments to farmers. To be eligible, a producer must have owned the cows 60 days prior to the disaster, or June 9.Another option for farmers is the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP). NAP covers crops that are not covered under typical insurance like fruits, vegetables and hay. However, farmers must have signed up for this program prior to planting. The Farm Service Agency said keeping agribusiness afloat is paramount in these tough times. “The economic success of our farmers greatly impacts their local community, as well as our state,” Funderburk said. “When we have a thriving agricultural economy, then the communities do well also. So the local stores will be affected because there wont be as much spending power in those local communities, and also we’ll see a reduction in the number of crops that are available, that are harvested.” The ramifications of a drought are potentially widespread, Funderburk said, and could potentially impact food prices. “All of the supply chain participants come into play here, as well as grocery stores and other places that sell the food that the farmers grow,” she said. The federal Drought Monitor report comes on the heels of a unprecedented report from the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, where 15 counties saw a three-level increase from no drought to severe. “Our hearts certainly go out to our farmers and their families,” Funderburk said. “It’s a terribly difficult time when you have to struggle with the weather. Farming is one of the most riskiest professions there is.” To apply, farmers can call the Farm Service Agency or visit the state office closest to them. The agency said it stands to assist farmers and help them get to the next growing season. WIS10 (Columbia, SC), 7/15/24.

Flash drought in the DC area means that backup reservoirs may need to be used to supplement drinking water supply from the Potomac River, according to the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin. Drought emerged rapidly, while earlier in the year water supplies were plentiful. Releases were previously needed in 2010, 2002, and 1999. WTOP 9 (Washington, DC), July 12, 2024.

East Tennessee State University, which houses the state's official climate office, says that dry weather and heat in the region have become dangerous. Grass has browned and farmers risk financial impacts due to crop loss. Throughout Southern Appalachia, including much of Tennessee, hay fields, pastures, and grasses have been stressed by the dry conditions that emerged rapidly. At least one report has emerged of calves dying shortly after birth due to a fescue-related illness that is exacerbated, if not caused, by extreme heat and drought. This year's drought is unusually early for Tennessee, causing concern that yield losses will be substantial. The Greeneville Sun (Greeneville, TN), July 15, 2024.

MD 1624 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern to central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534... Valid 150352Z - 150515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534 continues. SUMMARY...A renewed strong to severe wind threat may evolve southeast from a thunderstorm cluster over the Quad Cities into parts of central Illinois overnight. This threat may remain relatively isolated. DISCUSSION...While the primary MCV and bowing linear cluster has spread over the Chicagoland area, renewed deep convection intensified on the backside of the trailing outflow over the Quad Cities. The southern portion of this renewed development that can persist south of the earlier outflow will have the potential to further intensify and yield a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. This will be aided by the presence of moderate west-northwesterly low to mid-level flow as sampled by the DVN VWP, and a lobe of enhanced buoyancy extending east of the instability max over northern MO. While most of this threat should be contained within WW 534 during the next couple hours, it may spread just south of the watch within a confined corridor overnight. ..Grams.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41729022 41548926 41408858 40878739 40408732 40208780 40158868 40248921 40458995 41139043 41409059 41729022 Read more

WW 0537 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0537 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0537 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0537 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0537 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0537 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more