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WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0534 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0534 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 534 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN WI LM 142255Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and intensity this evening. Isolated large hail generally 1-1.75 inches in diameter may occur with the initially more cellular activity. With time, a bowing cluster of thunderstorms should pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to around 60-70 mph. A landspout tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Mason City IA to 55 miles south of Racine WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-021-055-071-083-085-091-105-109-142340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS DAWSON MCCONE PHILLIPS RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX NDC005-007-009-013-019-023-025-033-049-053-055-057-061-065-069- 071-075-079-083-095-101-103-105-142340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-021-055-071-083-085-091-105-109-142340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS DAWSON MCCONE PHILLIPS RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX NDC005-007-009-013-019-023-025-033-049-053-055-057-061-065-069- 071-075-079-083-095-101-103-105-142340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS Read more

WW 533 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 142200Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Montana Western and Northern North Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening and move slowly east-southeastward. The most intense thunderstorms should be capable of producing large to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. The potential for severe/damaging winds is more uncertain. But, if activity can grow into a bowing cluster later this evening, then peak wind speeds may reach 65-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles southwest of Glasgow MT to 95 miles east of Minot ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more