SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 1633

1 year ago
MD 1633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin...and the Michigan Upper Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152006Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...As a cold front moves out of Minnesota, into Northwest Wisconsin, and eventually into the Upper Peninsula, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase this afternoon and evening. While these storms will be capable of producing some damaging wind gusts and perhaps some 1.00 inch hail, watch issuance is not expected at this time given the isolated nature of severe occurrence. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun developing within a modestly unstable airmass across the Upper Peninsula/Northern Wisconsin into Eastern Minnesota. Thunderstorm activity will increase as a cold front moves southeastward out of Minnesota into Wisconsin, and deep layer shear magnitudes of 35-40 kts will support at least some isolated severe convection. Given relatively straight-line forecast hodographs and thin buoyancy profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary hazards expected with any mature multicell clusters that develop. ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 46919302 47429190 47589132 47979056 47968996 47568913 47228862 46488829 45898821 45298854 45398935 45469092 45459252 45839293 46529331 46919302 Read more

SPC MD 1634

1 year ago
MD 1634 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538... FOR WESTERN NY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Western NY into north-central PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538... Valid 152021Z - 152145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two will remain possible through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...In advance of an MCV approaching eastern Lake Erie, a relatively long-lived supercell has recently intensified east of Buffalo, with other strong storms trailing to the southwest across western NY. A separate small cluster of storms (with a history of wind damage) is ongoing in closer proximity to a separate MCV moving across western PA. Modest enhancement of low/midlevel flow in advance of the MCVs remains evident in regional VWPs, which will continue to support organized convection through the remainder of the afternoon. Some upscale growth remains possible with time, which would potentially support an increase in damaging-wind potential (with at least localized gusts of 60-70 mph) downstream across western NY and north-central PA. However, even if some upscale growth occurs, a couple of embedded supercells will remain possible, with potential for a tornado or two and perhaps some hail. ..Dean.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 40887872 42207901 43357838 43627772 43727656 43767602 42567611 41677639 41187671 40957791 40887872 Read more

SPC MD 1632

1 year ago
MD 1632 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST PA INTO MD/DC/NORTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1632 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Southeast PA into MD/DC/northern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151941Z - 152145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind is possible through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening this afternoon from south-central PA into northern VA, within an increasingly hot and well-mixed environment. While stronger large-scale ascent is displaced to the north of this region, continued heating/destabilization could support a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity through the remainder of the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is generally modest and low-level flow is rather weak, but isolated damaging downburst winds will be possible with the stronger cells, as temperatures approach 100 F across the region. Northern portions of the MCD area could see another round of strong to locally severe storms this evening, as an MCV currently moving across western PA glances the region. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38667882 39537803 40397717 40547662 40517594 40417544 38777633 38117747 38077802 38127862 38197906 38667882 Read more

Short sunflowers bloomed early in Ooltewah, Tennessee

1 year ago
The sunflowers at a farm in Ooltewah were shorter than they ought to be and will not grow any taller with rain. The flowers bloomed a week to ten days earlier than usual and may not produce as many seeds as usual due to the drought. There will be less food for the blackbirds, sparrows, crows, and sand hill cranes that enjoy the seeds during the winter. Local 3 News (Chattanooga, Tenn.), July 12, 2024

Vegetation turning fall-like colors in West Virginia

1 year ago
Some streams in West Virginia and in the Appalachian region overall were at record lows as July has been an unusually dry month. Plants were beginning to dry out with the leaves turning fall-like colors. West Virginia Public Broadcasting (Charleston), July 15, 2024

SPC MD 1631

1 year ago
MD 1631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IN INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast IN into southwest/central OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151918Z - 152115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind are possible through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon from east-central IN into southwest OH, within an area of modest surface confluence and theta-e advection. Evolution of afternoon convection remains somewhat uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, but moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and marginally supportive effective shear (generally 25-35 kt per regional VWPs) could support stronger multicells and perhaps a supercell, with an attendant threat of hail and locally damaging winds. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely in the short term, but will be reevaluated if trends support an increase in the potential for multiple severe storms through the afternoon. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...IND... LAT...LON 39718633 40028624 40238322 40058182 39168187 39178253 39148374 39038524 38978571 39038634 39718633 Read more

SPC MD 1630

1 year ago
MD 1630 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1630 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Central Iowa...Southern Wisconsin...and Northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151859Z - 152130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely later this afternoon for portions of Iowa into Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin in anticipation of convective initiation, forecast to occur between 19-21Z. Thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale quickly into a bowing line, which will be capable of 80+ MPH winds, though 1.00+ inch hail and embedded tornadoes are also possible. DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave trough evident in both water vapor channel satellite imagery and RAP analyses is progressing eastward across southwest Minnesota. This shortwave is expected to provide additional ascent for convective initiation between 19-21Z over what is already a moist and unstable airmass, with widespread areas of MLCAPE > 3500 J/kg. This convective initiation is expected to occur anywhere from southern Minnesota, along the existing band of cloudiness, to central Iowa, where MLCINH has already eroded. Forecast profiles in north-central Iowa around the time of convective initiation show some slight curvature of the hodograph, resulting in modest 0-3km SRH of around 120 m^2/s^2. This will support the potential for tornadoes with any storms that remain isolated/discrete, but the overall expectation is for rapid upscale growth into a bowing MCS. The primary concern this evening is for damaging straight-line winds in excess of 80 MPH associated with this MCS, in addition to 1.00+ inch hail. Further east into Illinois, forecast hodographs show more favorable curvature and streamwise vorticity along and south of the surface boundary. Given the environment and expected storm mode, embedded QLCS tornadoes appear possible. ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 40649275 40969405 41239482 42219489 43059426 43389353 43309230 43259137 43219053 43158964 43168882 43108812 43098791 42958771 42828744 42418706 42048683 41418670 40848684 40588733 40448868 40398983 40409055 40649275 Read more