Aggregator

WW 541 TORNADO IA IL IN MI WI LM 152350Z - 160600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme east central Iowa Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Extreme southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more bow echoes from Iowa into northern Illinois this evening, with the potential to produce swaths of significant severe gusts up to 75-90 mph and several tornadoes with embedded circulations. The storms will spread into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan later tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Benton Harbor MI to 55 miles south southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 539...WW 540... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0539 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SDA TO 10 N OXV TO 15 WNW CID TO 20 N DBQ TO 20 SE VOK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638 ..MOORE..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...ILX...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-015-057-067-071-073-085-095-103-109-123-125-131-141-143- 155-161-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-160040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU CARROLL FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX LEE MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO WOODFORD IAC007-031-039-045-051-053-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107- 111-113-115-117-121-123-125-135-139-157-163-177-179-181-183-185- 160040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 539 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO WI 152020Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will soon develop across Iowa in a very moist and unstable air mass. Activity will track eastward and organize into a fast-moving bowing cluster, capable of very damaging wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible across this region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Des Moines IA to 5 miles east southeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 538... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

MD 1639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1639 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Far southeast Wisconsin into central and northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 152306Z - 160100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...An organizing MCS across eastern Iowa is expected to move into central and northeastern IL, and perhaps far southeast WI, later this evening. Recent convective trends and high-res ensemble guidance suggest one or more bowing segments will be possible; watch issuance is expected in the near term. DISCUSSION...MCS organization continues across central to eastern IA with multiple measured and estimated severe wind gusts noted over the past hour. Temperatures falling into the low 70s and upper 60s in the wake of the line of storms indicates that a strong/deep cold pool is becoming established. Recent high-res WoFS guidance has assimilated these recent convective trends well and depicts at least one, possibly two, more focused bowing segments emerging later this evening across central to northern IL with winds possibly up to 70 knots. Additionally, favorable low-level wind shear (upwards of 30 knots) within the 0-3 km layer should support the potential for embedded circulations with the line, especially north of any bowing segments. Downstream watch issuance is expected within the next hour to address this concern. ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 40199050 40828992 41758936 42448921 42748904 42908876 42918805 42848760 42488718 41988681 41818664 41458661 40978681 40608713 40348759 40068821 39818877 39818902 39818934 39868975 39919006 39999029 40149049 40199050 Read more

MD 1638 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... FOR CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Central Iowa into northwest Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539... Valid 152226Z - 160030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539 continues. SUMMARY...A severe hail threat will persist for the next 1-2 hours across central to eastern IA, but a gradual transition to a predominant wind threat appears likely after 00 UTC based on recent convective trends. DISCUSSION...Imagery from KDMX over the past 30-60 minutes has shown gradual cold pool amalgamation of initially discrete supercells north of the Des Moines, IA area. New convection developing along the outflow will likely initially pose a large hail threat given sufficiently strong environmental wind shear (around 35 knots observed on the KDMX VWP). However, the mean westerly winds are mostly aligned with the outflow boundary, which will continue to foster upscale growth in the coming hours. How fast semi-discrete cells transition to a more organized MCS remains uncertain, but based on the aforementioned trends and recent HRRR solutions, this transition may occur by around 00 UTC as storms propagate to the east/southeast along a diffuse baroclinic zone towards northwest IL. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 40499194 41219367 41349415 41529435 41669437 41839427 42019381 42709196 42719155 42488875 42328857 41898857 41328872 40778915 40378979 40319041 40379102 40499194 Read more

Tennessee is facing its worst drought in years and the Beardsley Community Farm is feeling the impact. “It feels like things just get crispier and crispier every week,” farm manager Lia Bevins said. But the heat is now hurting their output by about 95%. “This week last year, we were harvesting around 1,000 pounds of tomatoes every week,” Bevins said. “But this year, at least this week, its been less than about 50 pounds.” The farm supplies produce to food pantries in the area and they have not been able to with the drought. “A lot of the numbers are lower than they would have been, and so each of those pantries are depending on that produce and it’s just not able to make it out to those communities in as high of numbers as it would have in the past,” she said. However, food is not the only thing taking a hit. Owner of St. John Lawn Care said that mowing is 60% of his revenue, and now the money is drying up. The grass is not growing, causing a dip in business. “Normally every week it needs to be cut but this time, you show up and it’s the exact same height as it was last Friday,” he said. But the company has plans to combat the issue. “We’re having to switch the kinds of services we’re offering,” St. John said. “Pulling out bushes, trimming bushes, pulling out weeds, mulch, its a great time of year to do that.” WVLT8 (Knoxville, TN), 7/12/24.

MD 1637 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538... FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania and central to eastern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538... Valid 152136Z - 152330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 continues. SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe winds is expected to continue eastward into central and eastern New York later this evening. Downstream watch issuance is anticipated. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an organized squall line has become established across north-central PA and western NY. Velocity imagery from regional radars suggests that winds may be approaching severe limits, and several wind damage reports have been noted within the past 30-60 minutes. The downstream environment across central and eastern NY remains favorable for maintaining this line with upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. Additionally, enhanced 50-60 knot mid-level flow in the vicinity of an attendant MCV is noted in regional VWPs, which should continue to favor an organized squall line. Confidence in the potential for damaging/severe winds downstream appears sufficiently high to warrant watch issuance within the next 1-2 hours as the line approaches the eastern fringe of WW 538. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40937736 40927742 40957754 41047761 41167750 41477736 42077742 42487755 42937739 43187705 44057468 43937406 43597367 43097342 42687338 42207351 41827379 41627413 40937736 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
formed within a larger area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity centered several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression could form around midweek while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

MD 1636 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152050Z - 152315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening across portions of southeastern Arizona. The primary severe weather threat is expected to be damaging downburst thunderstorm winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over terrain-favored locations in southeastern Arizona over the past hour. These storms are developing in a modestly unstable environment (MLCAPE of ~1000 J/kg) with deeply mixed boundary layers. Easterly midlevel flow is expected to slightly increase this evening (~20 knots), which may help storms propagate westward off the higher terrain. These storms will primarily pose an isolated threat of damaging downburst winds. ..Jirak/Thompson.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31331107 31521151 32461139 33181113 33851082 34111032 33840967 33350940 32440927 31730913 31330906 31321105 31331107 Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0540 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 540 SEVERE TSTM NY 152300Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New York * Effective this Monday night from 700 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An organized line of storms will continue eastward through early tonight into eastern New York, with a continued threat for damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Glens Falls NY to 80 miles south southwest of Albany NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 538...WW 539... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0539 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OMA TO 40 WSW ALO TO 30 NW ALO TO 20 SW LSE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638 ..MOORE..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...ILX...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-015-057-067-071-073-085-095-103-109-123-125-131-141-143- 155-161-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-152340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU CARROLL FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX LEE MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO WOODFORD IAC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-037-039-043-045-049- 051-053-055-057-061-065-075-077-087-095-097-099-101-103-105-107- 111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-135-139-153-157-163-169-171-177- 179-181-183-185-191-152340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

Wilkes is among 22 North Carolina counties categorized as being in “severe drought” in the U.S. Drought Monitor report issued July 9. Severe drought is the third worst of five levels of drought. Early this week, weather forecasts called for a period of more than a week with more than a 50% chance of rain each day to start on Thursday. Otherwise, the U.S. Drought Monitor recommends the following for a “severe drought:” • implement Water Shortage Response Plans, if not already enacted; • stay informed on drought conditions and advisories at ncdrought.org; • participate, as appropriate, in regional and local coordination for the management of water resources; reexamine water delivery systems to minimize water loss and maximize water use efficiency; • eliminate nonessential uses of water; • evaluate the feasibility of incorporating water reuse, reclamation and/or recycling into daily operations; • seek to reduce water usage by, at least, the same percentage as the percent differential between normal seasonal water supply availability and the actual water supply availability resulting from current drought conditions; • increase public awareness and educational outreach programs emphasizing the need to conserve water. Wilkes Journal Patriot (Wilkesboro, NC), 7/15/24.

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW IPT TO 20 SSE ELM TO 20 W SYR TO 35 NW ART. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637 ..MOORE..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-017-023-045-049-053-065-067-107-109-152340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CHENANGO CORTLAND JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA TIOGA TOMPKINS PAC015-069-079-113-115-127-131-152340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING LOZ030-044-045-065-152340- Read more

WW 538 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 151620Z - 152300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central New York Northern Pennsylvania Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Jamestown NY to 30 miles south of Utica NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW IPT TO 20 SSE ELM TO 20 W SYR TO 35 NW ART. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637 ..MOORE..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-017-023-045-049-053-065-067-107-109-152340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CHENANGO CORTLAND JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA TIOGA TOMPKINS PAC015-069-079-113-115-127-131-152340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING LOZ030-044-045-065-152340- Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW IPT TO 20 SSE ELM TO 20 W SYR TO 35 NW ART. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637 ..MOORE..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-017-023-045-049-053-065-067-107-109-152340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CHENANGO CORTLAND JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA TIOGA TOMPKINS PAC015-069-079-113-115-127-131-152340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING LOZ030-044-045-065-152340- Read more

WW 538 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 151620Z - 152300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central New York Northern Pennsylvania Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Jamestown NY to 30 miles south of Utica NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1635 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CO/WY...SOUTHWEST SD...NE PANHANDLE...EXTREME NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Eastern CO/WY...southwest SD...NE Panhandle...extreme northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152049Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail are possible through late afternoon. Some uptick in severe-wind potential is possible with time into the central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based convection is developing this afternoon from near the CO Front Range into southeast WY and the Black Hills. Low-level moisture is rather limited across the region, but strong heating has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is rather modest where storms are currently ongoing, with the exception of the Black Hills region, where somewhat stronger deep-layer flow/shear is in place. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates will support a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts in the short term, with some hail potential attendant to the strongest storms. As storms move off of the higher terrain by late afternoon into early evening, there may be some increase in severe-wind potential into parts of the central High Plains, though uncertainty remains regarding the extent (if any) of outflow consolidation and modest upscale growth. Eventual watch issuance is possible if a more organized severe-wind threat becomes evident. ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38310270 38240376 38260443 38380491 38880504 39330532 39730545 42420526 43300503 44280364 44160244 42400201 41490178 41010171 40350170 39620171 38920199 38310270 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to uncertainty in status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more