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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... Both tornado and wind probabilities have been increased with the 20z update to 10 percent, and 45 percent SIG, respectively. Latest satellite imagery shows a modified outflow boundary draped across far eastern IA into northern IL. A very moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s amid strong heating is resulting in a corridor or strong to extreme instability across the region. Favorable vertical shear will support initial supercells, organizing into a bowing MCS with time as low-level flow remains orthogonal to the developing band of storms. The greatest severe wind potential is expected along the instability gradient in the vicinity of the remnant outflow boundary, extending from far eastern IA into extreme southern WI, northern IL, and far northwest IN into this evening. Widespread gusts of 60-70 mph are expected, with some gusts to 85 mph possible. Given favorable low-level shear, mesovortex tornadoes are likely along and near the apex of the developing bow late this afternoon into evening. For short term details on severe potential across this area, reference MCD 1630. ...NY/PA and the Central High Plains... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 regarding severe potential across NY/PA, and previous outlook discuss for more details. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... Both tornado and wind probabilities have been increased with the 20z update to 10 percent, and 45 percent SIG, respectively. Latest satellite imagery shows a modified outflow boundary draped across far eastern IA into northern IL. A very moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s amid strong heating is resulting in a corridor or strong to extreme instability across the region. Favorable vertical shear will support initial supercells, organizing into a bowing MCS with time as low-level flow remains orthogonal to the developing band of storms. The greatest severe wind potential is expected along the instability gradient in the vicinity of the remnant outflow boundary, extending from far eastern IA into extreme southern WI, northern IL, and far northwest IN into this evening. Widespread gusts of 60-70 mph are expected, with some gusts to 85 mph possible. Given favorable low-level shear, mesovortex tornadoes are likely along and near the apex of the developing bow late this afternoon into evening. For short term details on severe potential across this area, reference MCD 1630. ...NY/PA and the Central High Plains... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 regarding severe potential across NY/PA, and previous outlook discuss for more details. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Midwest... A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much of the Midwest. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually parts of IN/Lower MI. 12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions. Regardless, an active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential for isolated instances of significant damaging winds. ...NY/PA... Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these storms. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and western KS. The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer, sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. Read more

MD 1629 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NY/NORTHERN NJ INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1629 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Southeast NY/northern NJ into parts of southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151814Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are gradually strengthening early this afternoon across southeast NY and also across central MA. A low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching southern New England may support additional storm development through the afternoon, as any remaining MLCINH across the region continues to diminish. Low/midlevel flow is not particularly strong, but modest veering of the wind profile with height will support 20-30 kt of effective shear, which could support modest storm organization in the presence of moderate buoyancy. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support isolated damaging-wind potential with the strongest storms, while small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41467473 41837473 42077462 42077403 42207339 42607234 43057111 43017072 42697062 42377086 42167081 41877047 41777098 41397299 40977395 41027468 41467473 Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055- 063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 152040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-152040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055- 063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 152040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-152040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055- 063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 152040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-152040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more