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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

MD 1628 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NY/PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Parts of western/central NY/PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151552Z - 151745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase with time this afternoon, with damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two all possible. Watch issuance is possible by early/mid afternoon. DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is moving across southeast lower MI late this morning, with another MCV noted over central OH. Downstream of these MCVs, filtered heating of a relatively moist environment will result in MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Meanwhile, relatively enhanced midlevel flow to the south of the northernmost MCV will support effective shear of 30-40 kt into the afternoon, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection across parts of western/central NY/PA. Ongoing convection over southern ON and northeast Lake Erie may eventually spread into parts of western NY and over Lake Ontario through late morning, which could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. Stronger redevelopment is expected by early/mid afternoon from eastern Lake Erie into parts of western NY/northwest PA, in closer proximity to the approaching MCV. Storm coverage with southward extent is more uncertain, but eventual development into a larger portion of western/central PA will also be possible. A tendency toward storm clustering and possible development of a compact MCS is currently expected, with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts as storms move eastward through the afternoon. A couple supercells will also be possible, especially early in the storm evolution, which could pose a threat for isolated hail and possibly a tornado or two. Watch issuance will become increasingly possible early this afternoon in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 43847610 43157601 41807624 41037696 40857797 40897982 41148030 42088030 42837976 43817873 43847610 Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055- 063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 151740- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-151740- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055- 063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 151740- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-151740- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055- 063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 151740- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-151740- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area to expand chances further south into the southern Sierra in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern across the country for today. Latest GOES PWAT imagery and recent 00 UTC soundings both show a gradual increase in moisture content across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This increase in moisture will modulate the potential for purely dry thunderstorms this afternoon, with a mix of wet/dry convection becoming more likely. Regardless, MRMS rainfall estimates show several dry thunderstorms ongoing as of 06 UTC across parts of ID and WY. With only a gradual moistening trend expected and receptive fuels still in place for most locations (mainly anywhere away from swaths of heavy rainfall over the past 2 days), dry lightning, as well as gusty outflow winds, will continue to be a fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more