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WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0551 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162308 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Corrected for 5 to 7 days in second system.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad, elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While a tropical depression could still form during
the next day or two, the window for further development is
shortening with stronger upper-level winds and cooler waters
anticipated on Thursday. The system is forecast to move west-
northwestward at 10-15 mph across the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Thur-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northeastern US as strong high pressure continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D6/Sun-D7/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. ...Pacific Northwest D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... On D3/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D2/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Moisture will gradually begin to increase northwestward across California into Oregon and Washington towards the weekend as deepening trough brings southerly flow back into the region. This will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity as well as the potential for increasing winds. ...Great Basin, Idaho, and Arizona D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Thur. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions southern Utah and eastern Nevada, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Thur-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northeastern US as strong high pressure continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D6/Sun-D7/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. ...Pacific Northwest D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... On D3/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D2/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Moisture will gradually begin to increase northwestward across California into Oregon and Washington towards the weekend as deepening trough brings southerly flow back into the region. This will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity as well as the potential for increasing winds. ...Great Basin, Idaho, and Arizona D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Thur. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions southern Utah and eastern Nevada, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Thur-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northeastern US as strong high pressure continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D6/Sun-D7/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. ...Pacific Northwest D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... On D3/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D2/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Moisture will gradually begin to increase northwestward across California into Oregon and Washington towards the weekend as deepening trough brings southerly flow back into the region. This will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity as well as the potential for increasing winds. ...Great Basin, Idaho, and Arizona D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Thur. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions southern Utah and eastern Nevada, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Thur-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northeastern US as strong high pressure continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D6/Sun-D7/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. ...Pacific Northwest D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... On D3/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D2/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Moisture will gradually begin to increase northwestward across California into Oregon and Washington towards the weekend as deepening trough brings southerly flow back into the region. This will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity as well as the potential for increasing winds. ...Great Basin, Idaho, and Arizona D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Thur. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions southern Utah and eastern Nevada, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Thur-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northeastern US as strong high pressure continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D6/Sun-D7/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. ...Pacific Northwest D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... On D3/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D2/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Moisture will gradually begin to increase northwestward across California into Oregon and Washington towards the weekend as deepening trough brings southerly flow back into the region. This will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity as well as the potential for increasing winds. ...Great Basin, Idaho, and Arizona D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Thur. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions southern Utah and eastern Nevada, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Thur-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northeastern US as strong high pressure continues to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front D6/Sun-D7/Mon bringing increasing winds and potential thunderstorm chances. ...Pacific Northwest D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... On D3/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry lightning on D2/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Moisture will gradually begin to increase northwestward across California into Oregon and Washington towards the weekend as deepening trough brings southerly flow back into the region. This will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity as well as the potential for increasing winds. ...Great Basin, Idaho, and Arizona D3/Thursday - D8/Tuesday... Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Thur. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions southern Utah and eastern Nevada, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains to the Northeast. Greatest severe-thunderstorm threats within that are over parts of the central Plains and upper Ohio Valley to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and western New England. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted behind ongoing convection and the mid-level shortwave in parts of New York and Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, the outlook remains mostly on track with only minor adjustments based on current observations and expected convective evolution. ..Wendt.. 07/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ ...Northeast States... A well-defined shortwave trough and embedded MCV from last night's severe MCS is tracking into western NY. Strong heating of a moist air mass ahead of this system will result in intensification of thunderstorms early this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward across NY/northern PA into New England this evening. Damaging winds (potentially widespread) will be the main concern with these storms, although hail and a tornado or two are also possible. Have expanded the SLGT risk to the MA/NH coast, given favorable westerly surface winds and morning CAM solutions suggesting that MCS may persist that far. South of the main upper feature, a hot and humid air mass is present from central PA and NJ southward. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop in this area, despite rather weak forcing. Sufficient winds aloft will promote a few organized storm clusters, capable of damaging wind gusts. ...CO/KS/OK/TX... Full sunshine will lead to very deep boundary-layer mixing and scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms along the Colorado Front Range this afternoon. This activity will be capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. As the convection spread east-southeastward into a progressively more moist air mass, intensification and organization of storms into an MCS is expected. This system will track into southwest KS and northwest OK this evening, with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...Central NE... A surface cold front is sagging southward across SD/NE today. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along this front over central NE late this afternoon or early evening. Activity will track southward for a few hours, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. ...Mid MS Valley... A large and persistent area of thunderstorms has been affecting portions of MO/IL all morning, resulting in a very large cloud shield. This will significantly impact heating/destabilization later today. Therefore, have adjusted the SLGT region to the areas along and south of the cloud shield, where strong heating is still possible. 12z CAM solutions suggest storms will build southward from this MCS across southern MO/western KY and into parts of AR/TN later today, with some risk of damaging winds. Read more

Some of the ears of corn in Columbus County were about the size of a man’s finger after the rain stopped in June, leaving the corn stalks to turn burnt gold. Some of the soybeans and peanuts have also “baked in the dirt” just like the corn. The pasture was not growing in the dry heat, so a farmer had to buy feed for his cattle. The farmers find the loss of the crops very painful and discouraging as well as a tremendous financial strain. “It’s all so personal,” a farmer said. “You take the time, you prepare the soil, you do all these things to try to protect it. Then something totally not under your control comes through and takes all that away.” Border Belt Independent (Elizabethtown, N.C.), July 12, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging squall line will surge across northern Illinois and extreme southern Wisconsin this evening, subsequently advancing into northern Indiana/southern lower Michigan overnight. Winds may gust in excess of 75mph along the surging bow. ...01z Update... Southern influence of upper MS Valley short-wave trough appears to be encouraging convection across the upper Midwest early this evening. Latest radar data exhibits marked upscale growth in an MCS that now extends from southern WI, arcing southwest across northwest IL into southeast IA. Substantial precip shield/cold pool is evolving which will aid forward propagation downstream into a reservoir of buoyancy that is characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, as far east as portions of Indiana. Numerous severe wind gusts have been reported with this evolving complex and this will continue as the leading squall line surges across northern IL toward southern Lake Michigan (including greater Chicago Metro). While damaging winds will be common, embedded tornadoes are expected along the QLCS. Downstream across NY, scattered damaging wind reports continue with a broken squall line that is advancing into the Hudson Valley. This convection is moving through the primary instability axis, and gradual weakening is expected further east across New England. ..Darrow.. 07/16/2024 Read more

MD 1639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1639 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Far southeast Wisconsin into central and northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 152306Z - 160100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...An organizing MCS across eastern Iowa is expected to move into central and northeastern IL, and perhaps far southeast WI, later this evening. Recent convective trends and high-res ensemble guidance suggest one or more bowing segments will be possible; watch issuance is expected in the near term. DISCUSSION...MCS organization continues across central to eastern IA with multiple measured and estimated severe wind gusts noted over the past hour. Temperatures falling into the low 70s and upper 60s in the wake of the line of storms indicates that a strong/deep cold pool is becoming established. Recent high-res WoFS guidance has assimilated these recent convective trends well and depicts at least one, possibly two, more focused bowing segments emerging later this evening across central to northern IL with winds possibly up to 70 knots. Additionally, favorable low-level wind shear (upwards of 30 knots) within the 0-3 km layer should support the potential for embedded circulations with the line, especially north of any bowing segments. Downstream watch issuance is expected within the next hour to address this concern. ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 40199050 40828992 41758936 42448921 42748904 42908876 42918805 42848760 42488718 41988681 41818664 41458661 40978681 40608713 40348759 40068821 39818877 39818902 39818934 39868975 39919006 39999029 40149049 40199050 Read more

MD 1640 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540... FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1640 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540... Valid 152354Z - 160130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540 continues. SUMMARY...The environment remains conducive for severe thunderstorms across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania to persist for another couple of hours. Wind will be the most common threat. DISCUSSION...Two quasi-linear bowing segments are ongoing across the severe thunderstorm watch: one in northeast Pennsylvania and another in central New York. Both of these bowing segments are moving east-northeast within an unstable airmass (CAPE around 1000 J/kg) and have a history of producing wind damage. Despite deep-layer shear decreasing with eastward extent, the organized nature of the convection will allow a wind damage threat to persist for another couple of hours. ..Marsh.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42677597 43477608 44007538 43917433 43177334 41837324 41327384 41087512 41137614 41557637 42137641 42677597 Read more

MD 1641 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... FOR EAST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...East-central Iowa into northwest Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539... Valid 152355Z - 160130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of higher wind potential appears to be emerging across east-central Iowa into northwestern Illinois. High-res experimental guidance suggests wind gusts upwards of 80-90 mph and embedded circulations will be possible over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Reflectivity and velocity data from KDVN shows a broad circulation developing across the IA/WI/IL tri-state region, which is believed a deepening MCV that is typically associated with a mature MCS. To the southwest, a bowing segment is becoming established across eastern IA. A diffuse baroclinic zone (denoted by temperature/dewpoints in the 90s and upper 70s respectively lies immediately downstream to the southeast of this emerging bow. This should provide a focus for propagation over the next few hours. Latest WoFS guidance and HRRR solutions have picked up on this trend and suggest significant severe wind gusts (including gusts upwards of 80-90 mph) are probable. Additionally, adequately strong (around 30 knots) low-level shear is in place and should support embedded circulations - especially within any portions of the line that can become more north-south oriented. Portions of WW 539 have been added to tornado watch 541 to address this potential. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41229186 41329189 41459157 41619126 41799092 42029069 42169040 42319019 42519007 42658997 42708952 42638925 42558914 42268912 41868915 41508930 41238954 41008988 40919022 40909055 41229186 Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 540 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640 ..MOORE..07/16/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-111-160140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER MONTGOMERY RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE ULSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 540 SEVERE TSTM NY 152300Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New York * Effective this Monday night from 700 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An organized line of storms will continue eastward through early tonight into eastern New York, with a continued threat for damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Glens Falls NY to 80 miles south southwest of Albany NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 538...WW 539... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0539 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CDJ TO 20 ENE OTM TO 30 SE CID TO 25 ENE DBQ TO 35 N MSN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641 ..MOORE..07/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...ILX...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC067-071-085-109-131-187-160140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HENDERSON JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER WARREN IAC031-051-057-087-097-101-111-115-139-177-179-183-160140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON LEE LOUISA MUSCATINE VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON MOC045-199-160140- MO Read more

WW 539 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO WI 152020Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will soon develop across Iowa in a very moist and unstable air mass. Activity will track eastward and organize into a fast-moving bowing cluster, capable of very damaging wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible across this region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Des Moines IA to 5 miles east southeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 538... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

MD 1638 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... FOR CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Central Iowa into northwest Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539... Valid 152226Z - 160030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539 continues. SUMMARY...A severe hail threat will persist for the next 1-2 hours across central to eastern IA, but a gradual transition to a predominant wind threat appears likely after 00 UTC based on recent convective trends. DISCUSSION...Imagery from KDMX over the past 30-60 minutes has shown gradual cold pool amalgamation of initially discrete supercells north of the Des Moines, IA area. New convection developing along the outflow will likely initially pose a large hail threat given sufficiently strong environmental wind shear (around 35 knots observed on the KDMX VWP). However, the mean westerly winds are mostly aligned with the outflow boundary, which will continue to foster upscale growth in the coming hours. How fast semi-discrete cells transition to a more organized MCS remains uncertain, but based on the aforementioned trends and recent HRRR solutions, this transition may occur by around 00 UTC as storms propagate to the east/southeast along a diffuse baroclinic zone towards northwest IL. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 40499194 41219367 41349415 41529435 41669437 41839427 42019381 42709196 42719155 42488875 42328857 41898857 41328872 40778915 40378979 40319041 40379102 40499194 Read more

WW 0541 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0541 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more