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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. today, though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be present across the eastern CONUS today with weak ridging across the western CONUS. Surface high pressure will weaken slightly and shift east across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. A cold front along the Gulf Coast will extend into the Central Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability and shear is forecast to develop across southern Minnesota this afternoon. A lead shortwave trough (currently across north Dakota) is expected to move through southern Minnesota around mid-day with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. However, by the evening, an additional shortwave trough (traversing the western edge of the broader trough) may result in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening. Some forecast sounding, particularly the NAM, would support a few strong to isolated severe storms with a threat for large hail. However, consensus guidance is not as unstable and therefore, any severe threat may remain mostly isolated. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be included at this time. ...Central High Plains into western Kansas... Thunderstorms across the central High Plains may congeal into a cluster as they move into western Kansas this evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (35 to 45 knots) on the southwest periphery of the large-scale trough will provide favorable deep-layer shear across the region. However, despite the favorable shear, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability. A few stronger storms capable of damaging winds will be possible, but this threat is expected to be too low/limited to warrant severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the eastern Pacific basin several hundred
miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well South of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system over the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form late this week or weekend while
it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system
over the latter portion of this week, and a tropical depression
could from by this weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central to western
part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system into early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

The Little Blue Natural Resources District issued mandatory groundwater allocations on May 15 as groundwater levels had been below required limits for two years. This is the first time that the district has allocated water. For the next five years, high-capacity irrigation, municipal, industrial, recreational, and fish and wildlife groundwater users within the affected areas cannot use or pump more than 65 inches of groundwater from high-capacity wells, according to the LBNRD rules and regulations. News Channel Nebraska (Grand Island, Neb.), Aug 26, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 02:40:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 03:26:42 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Juliette has changed little in organization since earlier today, but the overall coverage and intensity of deep convection has decreased. Most of the strongest thunderstorm activity is occurring in a small cluster just to the southeast of the estimated center. Convective banding features are not particularly well-defined. The advisory intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with Dvorak classifications of 3.5/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB and an objective DPRINT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS. The storm continues on its northwestward trek with a motion estimate of about 325/10 kt. Juliette is moving on the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico. This steering regime should continue through tomorrow. In 48 hours, the cyclone should weaken and move more slowly in the low-level flow. The official track forecast is somewhat to the right of the previous one, but not as far to the right as the latest dynamical model consensus. Juliette is currently crossing a strong gradient of SSTs and is headed for much cooler waters. This, along with drier low- to mid-level air and increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is very close to the DSHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA numerical guidance. Given the expected future environment, the tropical cyclone could weaken even faster then indicated here. Mid- to upper-level moisture associated with Juliette or its remnants will probably spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 20.9N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 02:40:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 02:40:16 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 25(25) 19(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 25N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 ...JULIETTE LIKELY TO COMMENCE WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 118.1W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 118.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally north-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Juliette will likely become a tropical depression tomorrow night and degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...JULIETTE LIKELY TO COMMENCE WEAKENING SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 20.9, -118.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Mostly unorganized thunderstorm activity has been prevalent across the western CONUS this evening. A few stronger storms and isolated stronger cores have been present. However, the severe potential has been limited and will remain so through the overnight period. ..Bentley.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Mostly unorganized thunderstorm activity has been prevalent across the western CONUS this evening. A few stronger storms and isolated stronger cores have been present. However, the severe potential has been limited and will remain so through the overnight period. ..Bentley.. 08/27/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 26 23:33:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 26 23:33:02 UTC 2025.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form late this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
system is possible late this week and into the weekend while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Weak upper lows will drift north out of the northwestern US Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday with remnants of monsoonal moisture surge lingering across portions of Washington and Montana. Drier air will filter in behind this surge as upper-level ridging begins to build slowly over the Intermountain West. Thunderstorm coverage decreases across the Sierra and western Great Basin and northern Rockies Day 4/Friday through the weekend. Another upper low will approach the Northwest coast Day 4/Friday and is likely to move into Washington over the weekend. The track of this upper low remains uncertain, especially from late Day 6/Sunday and beyond. ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday... Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible in portions northern Washington into northwest Montana on Day 3/Thursday, with chances potentially lingering in the Idaho Panhandle/northwest Montana on Day 4/Friday. However, there is too much uncertainty regarding actual lightning production and not just high-based showers to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Sunday... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California into the Inland Northwest and northwest Great Basin as the upper low approaches and eventually moves into the Northwest. Given the recent lightning and dry fuels, holdovers will be a concern, and any ongoing active large wildfires in these areas are likely to see increased growth. Showers are likely in portions of western Washington associated with the upper low. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Weak upper lows will drift north out of the northwestern US Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday with remnants of monsoonal moisture surge lingering across portions of Washington and Montana. Drier air will filter in behind this surge as upper-level ridging begins to build slowly over the Intermountain West. Thunderstorm coverage decreases across the Sierra and western Great Basin and northern Rockies Day 4/Friday through the weekend. Another upper low will approach the Northwest coast Day 4/Friday and is likely to move into Washington over the weekend. The track of this upper low remains uncertain, especially from late Day 6/Sunday and beyond. ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday... Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible in portions northern Washington into northwest Montana on Day 3/Thursday, with chances potentially lingering in the Idaho Panhandle/northwest Montana on Day 4/Friday. However, there is too much uncertainty regarding actual lightning production and not just high-based showers to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Sunday... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California into the Inland Northwest and northwest Great Basin as the upper low approaches and eventually moves into the Northwest. Given the recent lightning and dry fuels, holdovers will be a concern, and any ongoing active large wildfires in these areas are likely to see increased growth. Showers are likely in portions of western Washington associated with the upper low. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Weak upper lows will drift north out of the northwestern US Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday with remnants of monsoonal moisture surge lingering across portions of Washington and Montana. Drier air will filter in behind this surge as upper-level ridging begins to build slowly over the Intermountain West. Thunderstorm coverage decreases across the Sierra and western Great Basin and northern Rockies Day 4/Friday through the weekend. Another upper low will approach the Northwest coast Day 4/Friday and is likely to move into Washington over the weekend. The track of this upper low remains uncertain, especially from late Day 6/Sunday and beyond. ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday... Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible in portions northern Washington into northwest Montana on Day 3/Thursday, with chances potentially lingering in the Idaho Panhandle/northwest Montana on Day 4/Friday. However, there is too much uncertainty regarding actual lightning production and not just high-based showers to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Sunday... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California into the Inland Northwest and northwest Great Basin as the upper low approaches and eventually moves into the Northwest. Given the recent lightning and dry fuels, holdovers will be a concern, and any ongoing active large wildfires in these areas are likely to see increased growth. Showers are likely in portions of western Washington associated with the upper low. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Weak upper lows will drift north out of the northwestern US Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday with remnants of monsoonal moisture surge lingering across portions of Washington and Montana. Drier air will filter in behind this surge as upper-level ridging begins to build slowly over the Intermountain West. Thunderstorm coverage decreases across the Sierra and western Great Basin and northern Rockies Day 4/Friday through the weekend. Another upper low will approach the Northwest coast Day 4/Friday and is likely to move into Washington over the weekend. The track of this upper low remains uncertain, especially from late Day 6/Sunday and beyond. ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday... Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible in portions northern Washington into northwest Montana on Day 3/Thursday, with chances potentially lingering in the Idaho Panhandle/northwest Montana on Day 4/Friday. However, there is too much uncertainty regarding actual lightning production and not just high-based showers to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Sunday... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California into the Inland Northwest and northwest Great Basin as the upper low approaches and eventually moves into the Northwest. Given the recent lightning and dry fuels, holdovers will be a concern, and any ongoing active large wildfires in these areas are likely to see increased growth. Showers are likely in portions of western Washington associated with the upper low. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more