Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the eastern Pacific basin several hundred
miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well South of the Hawaiian Islands:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for some slow development of this system over the next few days
while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for gradual development of this system toward the
end of the week, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
around 15 mph across the central to western part of the eastern
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the early and
middle portions of next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

Utah Gov. Spencer Cox declared a 30-day state of emergency beginning July 31 as drought exacerbated the fire danger statewide. The order allows the government to use all available state resources to guard lives, homes, livestock and drinking-water supplies which have been threatened by this year’s severe fire season. It also authorizes the deployment of the Utah National Guard and streamlines assistance for local governments. Utah News Dispatch, July 31, 2025

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more