Aggregator

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 271434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 119.5W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 119.5W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.4N 120.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.1N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

087
ABPZ20 KNHC 271113
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the eastern Pacific basin several hundred
miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well South of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system over the next few days, while it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for gradual development of this system toward the
end of the week, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the central to western part of the eastern Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system into early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 08:34:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 09:26:51 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 984 WTPZ45 KNHC 270835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Juliette still has a relatively healthy presentation this morning on satellite imagery, with a small, but symmetric area of deep convection near its center. However, these cold cloud tops are warming as the cyclone begins to move over the progressively cooler ocean waters of the eastern North Pacific. Satellite intensity estimates are decreasing, and we also received a helpful Metop-C ASCAT pass at 0451 UTC which only had a peak wind retrieval of 36 kt in the eastern side of the tropical storm. The initial intensity is only being lowered to 45 kt this advisory, assuming some scatterometer undersampling of the small circulation. The tropical storm is now moving north-northwestward, estimated at 330/11 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so with a little more rightward turn as Juliette is steered poleward through a weakness in the mid-level ridging produced by a deep-layer trough located off the California coast. As the cyclone becomes vertically shallow, its forward motion should slow substantially as it becomes more steered by the light and variable low-level flow in this part of the eastern North Pacific. The official track forecast this cycle is fairly similar to the prior one, other than a little more eastward shift after Juliette becomes a remnant low. This forecast remains generally in the middle of the guidance envelope. Juliette's tropical cyclone story is fading as it moves over sea-surface temperatures below 25C which cool further over the next 24 hours. While vertical wind shear is currently low, it is expected to increase substantially after 24 hours, stripping away the storm's remaining convection by that time. Thus, Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in about 36 h. The remnant low should ultimately open up into a trough by the end of the week. Even as Juliette becomes a remnant low, some of its mid- to upper-level moisture will be advected poleward towards portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S., which could help to enhance local monsoonal rainfall for these areas in the latter half of this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 21.9N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 23.3N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 25.0N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 26.3N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1800Z 27.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 08:34:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 08:34:49 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 755 FOPZ15 KNHC 270834 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 1 34(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 25N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 924 WTPZ35 KNHC 270833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...JULIETTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO THE COOL OCEAN WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 118.8W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 118.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general north-northwestward to northward motion with a slowdown in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...JULIETTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO THE COOL OCEAN WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 the center of Juliette was located near 21.9, -118.8 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 118.8W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 118.8W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.3N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River Valley to the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating, thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings), suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more