Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... Isolated strong storms remain possible in the Four Corners vicinity this afternoon. Observed 18Z soundings from Tucson and Flagstaff indicate relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal effective shear. Areas of stronger surface heating could promote stronger outflow winds, but organized severe storms are still unlikely. Only minor modifications were made to the general thunder area based on current observations. Additional forecast details are in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... Isolated strong storms remain possible in the Four Corners vicinity this afternoon. Observed 18Z soundings from Tucson and Flagstaff indicate relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal effective shear. Areas of stronger surface heating could promote stronger outflow winds, but organized severe storms are still unlikely. Only minor modifications were made to the general thunder area based on current observations. Additional forecast details are in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... Isolated strong storms remain possible in the Four Corners vicinity this afternoon. Observed 18Z soundings from Tucson and Flagstaff indicate relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal effective shear. Areas of stronger surface heating could promote stronger outflow winds, but organized severe storms are still unlikely. Only minor modifications were made to the general thunder area based on current observations. Additional forecast details are in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... Isolated strong storms remain possible in the Four Corners vicinity this afternoon. Observed 18Z soundings from Tucson and Flagstaff indicate relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal effective shear. Areas of stronger surface heating could promote stronger outflow winds, but organized severe storms are still unlikely. Only minor modifications were made to the general thunder area based on current observations. Additional forecast details are in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... Isolated strong storms remain possible in the Four Corners vicinity this afternoon. Observed 18Z soundings from Tucson and Flagstaff indicate relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal effective shear. Areas of stronger surface heating could promote stronger outflow winds, but organized severe storms are still unlikely. Only minor modifications were made to the general thunder area based on current observations. Additional forecast details are in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form late this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
system is possible late this week and into the weekend while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen