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Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260834 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.3W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 90SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.3W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...JULIETTE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 18.3, -116.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260834 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 ...JULIETTE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 116.3W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 116.3 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower north-northwestward motion beginning late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, a weakening trend is anticipated to begin Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will eject into the Atlantic this weekend as weak upper ridging builds into the central U.S. and an upper-low meanders over the Pacific Northwest. An upper trough will then develop and gradually amplify over the Upper MS Valley through early next week. A surface cold front will sag southward through the day on Day 4/Friday across portions of the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, where rich moisture and appreciable instability will be in place to support a threat for at least scattered strong thunderstorms. By the weekend into early next week, surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage the northwestward advection of low-level moisture beneath modest lapse rates, resulting in marginal to moderate instability across the High Plains Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday. Southeasterly 850 mb winds, overspread by northwesterly flow at 500 mb, may encourage enough wind shear to support isolated severe storms along the central High Plains Saturday-Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will eject into the Atlantic this weekend as weak upper ridging builds into the central U.S. and an upper-low meanders over the Pacific Northwest. An upper trough will then develop and gradually amplify over the Upper MS Valley through early next week. A surface cold front will sag southward through the day on Day 4/Friday across portions of the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, where rich moisture and appreciable instability will be in place to support a threat for at least scattered strong thunderstorms. By the weekend into early next week, surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage the northwestward advection of low-level moisture beneath modest lapse rates, resulting in marginal to moderate instability across the High Plains Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday. Southeasterly 850 mb winds, overspread by northwesterly flow at 500 mb, may encourage enough wind shear to support isolated severe storms along the central High Plains Saturday-Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will eject into the Atlantic this weekend as weak upper ridging builds into the central U.S. and an upper-low meanders over the Pacific Northwest. An upper trough will then develop and gradually amplify over the Upper MS Valley through early next week. A surface cold front will sag southward through the day on Day 4/Friday across portions of the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, where rich moisture and appreciable instability will be in place to support a threat for at least scattered strong thunderstorms. By the weekend into early next week, surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage the northwestward advection of low-level moisture beneath modest lapse rates, resulting in marginal to moderate instability across the High Plains Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday. Southeasterly 850 mb winds, overspread by northwesterly flow at 500 mb, may encourage enough wind shear to support isolated severe storms along the central High Plains Saturday-Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will eject into the Atlantic this weekend as weak upper ridging builds into the central U.S. and an upper-low meanders over the Pacific Northwest. An upper trough will then develop and gradually amplify over the Upper MS Valley through early next week. A surface cold front will sag southward through the day on Day 4/Friday across portions of the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, where rich moisture and appreciable instability will be in place to support a threat for at least scattered strong thunderstorms. By the weekend into early next week, surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage the northwestward advection of low-level moisture beneath modest lapse rates, resulting in marginal to moderate instability across the High Plains Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday. Southeasterly 850 mb winds, overspread by northwesterly flow at 500 mb, may encourage enough wind shear to support isolated severe storms along the central High Plains Saturday-Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will eject into the Atlantic this weekend as weak upper ridging builds into the central U.S. and an upper-low meanders over the Pacific Northwest. An upper trough will then develop and gradually amplify over the Upper MS Valley through early next week. A surface cold front will sag southward through the day on Day 4/Friday across portions of the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, where rich moisture and appreciable instability will be in place to support a threat for at least scattered strong thunderstorms. By the weekend into early next week, surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage the northwestward advection of low-level moisture beneath modest lapse rates, resulting in marginal to moderate instability across the High Plains Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday. Southeasterly 850 mb winds, overspread by northwesterly flow at 500 mb, may encourage enough wind shear to support isolated severe storms along the central High Plains Saturday-Tuesday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS while an upper ridge remains in place across the Southwest on Thursday. Multiple mid-level perturbations will rotate around the broader upper trough, promoting enough lift to support thunderstorms across portions of the Great Lakes. Multiple rounds of south-southeastward progressing thunderstorms are also likely across the southern Plains into the Southeast along a frontal boundary through the day. Rich low-level moisture and associated ample buoyancy will precede the southern Plains storms during the afternoon, which may promote strong storm potential given modest wind shear. ...Southern Plains... An MCS may be ongoing across portions of the Southern Plains at the start of the period, leaving an outflow boundary in its wake. South of the outflow boundary, robust surface heating will take place, supporting surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints. Despite poor (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture may support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the flow with height will result in 35 kts of effective bulk shear. The development of multicells and/or the southwestward back-building of an older MCS is anticipated by mid to late afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty at this point is the placement and movement of the outflow boundary, which will directly influence where any isolated severe thunderstorms may occur. As such, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities have been withheld given placement uncertainties, though severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS while an upper ridge remains in place across the Southwest on Thursday. Multiple mid-level perturbations will rotate around the broader upper trough, promoting enough lift to support thunderstorms across portions of the Great Lakes. Multiple rounds of south-southeastward progressing thunderstorms are also likely across the southern Plains into the Southeast along a frontal boundary through the day. Rich low-level moisture and associated ample buoyancy will precede the southern Plains storms during the afternoon, which may promote strong storm potential given modest wind shear. ...Southern Plains... An MCS may be ongoing across portions of the Southern Plains at the start of the period, leaving an outflow boundary in its wake. South of the outflow boundary, robust surface heating will take place, supporting surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints. Despite poor (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture may support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the flow with height will result in 35 kts of effective bulk shear. The development of multicells and/or the southwestward back-building of an older MCS is anticipated by mid to late afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty at this point is the placement and movement of the outflow boundary, which will directly influence where any isolated severe thunderstorms may occur. As such, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities have been withheld given placement uncertainties, though severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS while an upper ridge remains in place across the Southwest on Thursday. Multiple mid-level perturbations will rotate around the broader upper trough, promoting enough lift to support thunderstorms across portions of the Great Lakes. Multiple rounds of south-southeastward progressing thunderstorms are also likely across the southern Plains into the Southeast along a frontal boundary through the day. Rich low-level moisture and associated ample buoyancy will precede the southern Plains storms during the afternoon, which may promote strong storm potential given modest wind shear. ...Southern Plains... An MCS may be ongoing across portions of the Southern Plains at the start of the period, leaving an outflow boundary in its wake. South of the outflow boundary, robust surface heating will take place, supporting surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints. Despite poor (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture may support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the flow with height will result in 35 kts of effective bulk shear. The development of multicells and/or the southwestward back-building of an older MCS is anticipated by mid to late afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty at this point is the placement and movement of the outflow boundary, which will directly influence where any isolated severe thunderstorms may occur. As such, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities have been withheld given placement uncertainties, though severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS while an upper ridge remains in place across the Southwest on Thursday. Multiple mid-level perturbations will rotate around the broader upper trough, promoting enough lift to support thunderstorms across portions of the Great Lakes. Multiple rounds of south-southeastward progressing thunderstorms are also likely across the southern Plains into the Southeast along a frontal boundary through the day. Rich low-level moisture and associated ample buoyancy will precede the southern Plains storms during the afternoon, which may promote strong storm potential given modest wind shear. ...Southern Plains... An MCS may be ongoing across portions of the Southern Plains at the start of the period, leaving an outflow boundary in its wake. South of the outflow boundary, robust surface heating will take place, supporting surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints. Despite poor (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture may support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the flow with height will result in 35 kts of effective bulk shear. The development of multicells and/or the southwestward back-building of an older MCS is anticipated by mid to late afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty at this point is the placement and movement of the outflow boundary, which will directly influence where any isolated severe thunderstorms may occur. As such, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities have been withheld given placement uncertainties, though severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS while an upper ridge remains in place across the Southwest on Thursday. Multiple mid-level perturbations will rotate around the broader upper trough, promoting enough lift to support thunderstorms across portions of the Great Lakes. Multiple rounds of south-southeastward progressing thunderstorms are also likely across the southern Plains into the Southeast along a frontal boundary through the day. Rich low-level moisture and associated ample buoyancy will precede the southern Plains storms during the afternoon, which may promote strong storm potential given modest wind shear. ...Southern Plains... An MCS may be ongoing across portions of the Southern Plains at the start of the period, leaving an outflow boundary in its wake. South of the outflow boundary, robust surface heating will take place, supporting surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints. Despite poor (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture may support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the flow with height will result in 35 kts of effective bulk shear. The development of multicells and/or the southwestward back-building of an older MCS is anticipated by mid to late afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty at this point is the placement and movement of the outflow boundary, which will directly influence where any isolated severe thunderstorms may occur. As such, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities have been withheld given placement uncertainties, though severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... One or more subtle midlevel disturbances will overspread the Northwest today, where well-established monsoonal moisture is in place. The associated forcing for ascent and sufficient buoyancy should support a mix of wet/dry high-based thunderstorms over the Cascades during afternoon into the evening. While thunderstorm coverage may remain somewhat limited (potentially 5-10 percent), any storms that form may pose a risk of new ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. A continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is expected farther south into northern CA, though several days of rain casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... One or more subtle midlevel disturbances will overspread the Northwest today, where well-established monsoonal moisture is in place. The associated forcing for ascent and sufficient buoyancy should support a mix of wet/dry high-based thunderstorms over the Cascades during afternoon into the evening. While thunderstorm coverage may remain somewhat limited (potentially 5-10 percent), any storms that form may pose a risk of new ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. A continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is expected farther south into northern CA, though several days of rain casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more