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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/26/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 14:34:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 15:27:39 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 261440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 14:34:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 14:34:32 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent GPM/GMI microwave pass indicate that Juliette has become better organized during the past few hours. Deep convection has increased near and to the east of the surface center, and the GPM image revealed an impressive tightly curved band wrapping around the center from the southwest. Based on the cyclone's improved cloud pattern and the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 60 kt. Although not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast, there's still a possibility that Juliette could briefly become a hurricane later today, and a couple of the hurricane models are indicating this as well. By Wednesday, however, a weakening trend is expected while Juliette traverses progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moves into a more inhibiting surrounding thermodynamic environment. Juliette is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night and open into a trough over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and resembles the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/9 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast. A slower north-northwestward motion is expected late Wednesday in response to a growing weakness in the aforementioned subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nudged a bit to the left of the previous one and is close to the Google DeepMind ensemble and ECMWF deterministic models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 820 WTPZ25 KNHC 261432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 819 WTPZ35 KNHC 261432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 ...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 116.5W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 116.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward motion is expected late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Although not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast, Juliette could briefly become a hurricane today before a weakening trend commences on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at Clarion Island, Colima, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 19.1, -116.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level trough will persist across the eastern CONUS today, where a cool, dry airmass and high pressure will be prevalent and limit thunderstorm potential aside from Florida. Monsoon-related scattered thunderstorms will be common across much of the non-coastal West. ...Southern Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... A northward-moving mid-level impulse/MCV will spread from the Lower Colorado River Valley/northern Arizona this morning into Utah, allowing for subsequent clearing/heating across southern Arizona toward the Lower Colorado River Valley. Thunderstorms will again develop and increase this afternoon especially in vicinity of higher terrain. A few instances of strong thunderstorm winds/wet microbursts could occur regionally this afternoon into evening, but the overall potential is expected to remain quite isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level trough will persist across the eastern CONUS today, where a cool, dry airmass and high pressure will be prevalent and limit thunderstorm potential aside from Florida. Monsoon-related scattered thunderstorms will be common across much of the non-coastal West. ...Southern Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... A northward-moving mid-level impulse/MCV will spread from the Lower Colorado River Valley/northern Arizona this morning into Utah, allowing for subsequent clearing/heating across southern Arizona toward the Lower Colorado River Valley. Thunderstorms will again develop and increase this afternoon especially in vicinity of higher terrain. A few instances of strong thunderstorm winds/wet microbursts could occur regionally this afternoon into evening, but the overall potential is expected to remain quite isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level trough will persist across the eastern CONUS today, where a cool, dry airmass and high pressure will be prevalent and limit thunderstorm potential aside from Florida. Monsoon-related scattered thunderstorms will be common across much of the non-coastal West. ...Southern Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... A northward-moving mid-level impulse/MCV will spread from the Lower Colorado River Valley/northern Arizona this morning into Utah, allowing for subsequent clearing/heating across southern Arizona toward the Lower Colorado River Valley. Thunderstorms will again develop and increase this afternoon especially in vicinity of higher terrain. A few instances of strong thunderstorm winds/wet microbursts could occur regionally this afternoon into evening, but the overall potential is expected to remain quite isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level trough will persist across the eastern CONUS today, where a cool, dry airmass and high pressure will be prevalent and limit thunderstorm potential aside from Florida. Monsoon-related scattered thunderstorms will be common across much of the non-coastal West. ...Southern Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... A northward-moving mid-level impulse/MCV will spread from the Lower Colorado River Valley/northern Arizona this morning into Utah, allowing for subsequent clearing/heating across southern Arizona toward the Lower Colorado River Valley. Thunderstorms will again develop and increase this afternoon especially in vicinity of higher terrain. A few instances of strong thunderstorm winds/wet microbursts could occur regionally this afternoon into evening, but the overall potential is expected to remain quite isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/26/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form late this week, while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this system is
possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 09:27:11 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260836 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Juliette's satellite appearance has remained fairly steady overnight with curved banding mainly to the south of the center. Recent microwave imagery shows that Juliette is still trying to develop a small inner core, which has not become better established since the previous advisory. Unfortunately, scatterometer missed tonight given the small size of the system it fell within the data gap. There is a bit of a range from subjective and objective intensity estimates this cycle between 44 to 65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 55 kt. The system is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 290/ 11 kt. The storm is being steered along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge located to the north. A gradual turn to the northwest then north-northwest is anticipated as a weakness in the ridge develops over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to the right in the short term between the consensus aids on the right with Google DeepMind and EMXI on the left. Juliette should remain within a favorable environment, with warm sea surface temperatures and light to moderate wind shear for the next 18-24 h , which will allow for some strengthening. However, by early Wednesday the system will be crossing into cooler sea surface temperatures, and into a drier airmass. Latest SHIPS model guidance depicts wind shear also increases in about 48 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the consensus aids, and shows some strengthening possible today, although since the inner core has not established, the peak intensity is now just below hurricane strength. A gradual weakening trend is then forecast between 24-36 h, followed by a faster rate of weakening beyond 36 h. Juliette is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 h, before opening into a trough and dissipating by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.3N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260834 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 1 19(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER KELLY