Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 14:36:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 15:25:55 GMT

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 14:36:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 14:36:27 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Conventional satellite imagery this morning indicates that Juliette's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate. Deep convection has diminished in areal coverage while the cloud tops have warmed, particularly over the surface center. A blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB (40-50 kt) and a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis of 48 kt yield an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Juliette is traversing a sharp sea surface temperature gradient (less than 24 C) while moving into a drier, stable low- to mid-tropospheric surrounding environment. These negative contributions, along with increasing west-southwesterly deep-layer shear should weaken Juliette and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36 hrs, if not sooner. Afterward, Juliette should open into a trough by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the IVCN intensity consensus model and the LGEM. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/11 kt. This motion should continue for the next couple of days followed by a gradual northward turn on Thursday evening, while Juliette moves further into a growing weakness in the mid-level subtropical high. As Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow cyclone toward the end of the period, a slower forward motion is expected while being steered by the weaker low-level flow. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. Global models predict that residual mid- to upper-tropospheric moisture will be advected toward portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S., potentially increasing humidity conditions and enhancing local monsoonal rainfall toward the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 271435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 36 26(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 25N 120W 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...JULIETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 119.5W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 119.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general north-northwestward to northward motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 the center of Juliette was located near 23.0, -119.5 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 271434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 119.5W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 119.5W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.4N 120.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.1N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more