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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. ...01z Update... Scattered convection persists across much of the western United States early this evening, primarily driven by strong boundary-layer heating. Much of this activity will gradually weaken as the evening progresses. A corridor of modest instability persists across the central High Plains and a few small clusters are noted across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas. Weak low-level warm advection will maintain this activity into the mid-evening hours, with some upscale growth possible downstream later tonight as LLJ strengthens. Even so, most of this convection should remain sub-severe. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the eastern Pacific basin several hundred
miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well South of the Hawaiian Islands:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for some slow development of this system over the next few
days while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the central
Pacific basin. By Saturday, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the coast
of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
around 15 mph across the central to western part of the eastern
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the early and
middle portions of next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 27 22:16:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 27 22:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS AND A SMALL PART OF THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO into western KS and a small part of the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272013Z - 272215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible later this afternoon into this evening. DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of earlier mid/high-level cloudiness has allowed for modest diurnal heating from eastern CO into west-central/southwest KS. Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, but boundary-layer warming and sufficient low-level moisture are supporting MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, with locally greater values across southwest KS. Weak storms have already developed near the CO Front Range, with building cumulus noted in the vicinity of multiple surface confluence zones across northeast CO, east-central CO, and southeast CO into southwest KS. Westerly midlevel flow is relatively modest (generally 20-25 kt), but sufficient veering in the wind profile is supporting effective shear of 25-30 kt. With time, a few organized multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two could evolve as developing convection deepens and matures through late afternoon. The strongest cells could produce isolated hail, though generally weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit the magnitude of the hail threat. Outflow amalgamation could result in loosely organized upscale growth by early evening, with a threat for strong to locally severe gusts. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40720462 40840406 41210382 41490378 41510312 41050292 39860214 38760137 37820072 37200076 37180183 37290306 38450481 39500491 40360518 40700483 40720462 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271918Z - 272145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should increase through early evening across southwest Minnesota and perhaps far eastern South Dakota. A strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible, but watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a band of growing cumulus focused along a subtle warm frontal zone from eastern SD into south-central MN. Vertical development of the cumulus has increased over the past hour (with occasional lightning flashes noted in at least one deeper convective tower) as modest daytime heating slowly reduces inhibition and ascent ahead of a weak upper-level wave (noted in water-vapor imagery and regional VWP observations) glances the region. Additional convective development should become more likely through late afternoon/early evening as temperatures continue to warm into the mid/upper 70s and the upper wave overspreads southern MN. VWP observations from KFSD have consistently sampled around 30 knots of 0-4 km shear, and recent RAP forecast soundings/mesoanalysis estimates suggest MLCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg. While fairly modest, this environment is sufficient for some storm organization if mature convection can become established within the weakly forced regime. More intense cells may be capable of severe gusts as well as large hail, though the coverage and overall intensity of severe thunderstorms is expected to remain fairly limited through early evening. ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45079626 45039549 44929487 44769447 44589405 44329363 44039334 43729336 43529346 43429383 43419435 43449505 43539565 43659608 43829655 44129698 44399719 44659725 44939717 45069685 45079626 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 20:40:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 21:26:12 GMT

The level of Lake Champlain was quite low, due to drought. Rocks and debris were exposed, forcing boaters to be cautious or risk damaging their propellers. Docking has also become more challenging. The public was urged to be careful due to the low water levels. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Aug 27, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 20:40:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 20:40:33 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 GOES-18 imagery indicates that convection associated with Juliette continues to gradually decrease, and the cloud tops on IR imagery are gradually warming. However, there is an area of convection about 70 n mi wide in the NE quadrant, with the low-level center currently at the southwestern edge of the convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 3.0/45 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have a wider range (35-50 kt). A 1719 UTC ASCAT-C pass over the cyclone showed several 34-36 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 40 kt for this advisory. Juliette is moving over cold sea surface temperatures of 23-24C, and the cyclone is forecast to reach water temperatures colder than 22C in 6-12 h. Juliette is also now reaching an area of increasing southwesterly wind shear, along with a drier, stable low- to mid-tropospheric environment. These negative factors will cause Juliette to continue weakening, and the cyclone should become a remnant low in about 24 h. Afterward, Juliette should open into a trough by late Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, with slightly faster weakening shown compared to the previous advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/12 kt. This motion should continue for the next 12-18 h while Juliette moves further into a growing weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. As Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow cyclone on Thursday, a slower forward motion toward the north is expected while being steered by the weaker low-level flow. The official track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous track, and lies close to the various consensus aids. Global models predict that residual mid- to upper-tropospheric moisture will be advected toward portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S., potentially increasing humidity conditions and enhancing local monsoonal rainfall toward the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 23.9N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 25.2N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 27.3N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 27.8N 120.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 272035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 37 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 272035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 120.2W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 120.2 West. Juliette is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the north and a reduction in forward speed is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen