Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more