Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph offshore
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

Twenty counties in northern and western New York and Long Island were in a drought watch issued by Gov. Kathy Hochul and the New York State Department of Conservation. The 20 counties include Chautauqua, Clinton, Erie, Essex, Franklin, Genesee, Hamilton, Herkimer, Jefferson, Lewis, Monroe, Nassau, Niagara, Orleans, Oswego, St. Lawrence, Suffolk, Warren, Wayne, and northern Cayuga. The public, particularly those dependent on private groundwater wells, was urged to conserve water. WKTV (Utica, N.Y.), Aug 29, 2025

Wells were running dry in New Hampshire, and some communities have enacted outdoor watering bans. River levels were low statewide, which poses challenges for the fish. New Hampshire Public Radio (Concord, N.H.), Aug 29, 2025 Many community water systems in New Hampshire have banned outdoor watering to conserve water, according to Ted Diers, assistant director of the water division at New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services. The Boston Globe, Aug 21, 2025

Temperatures were well above average with no measurable rainfall in eastern portions of Far West Texas. Scattered showers across the west tempered the impacts of prevailing hot and windy conditions. The cotton crop looked healthy with minimal pest pressure; however, it had begun to lose yield potential as bolls were beginning to set. Corn and sorghum matured and needed a little more time to dry down before harvest. Melon harvest was mostly complete, and most fields were not producing enough to justify harvest crews. Alfalfa looked good, but recent rainfall encouraged weeds and grass to grow. Pecans made good progress and were filling nicely. Insecticides were being applied to combat pecan weevils. Pastures dried up significantly, and cattle were starting to lose condition, leading to more supplemental feeding. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 26, 2025 Hot, dry conditions persisted across Far West Texas with impacts visible across agriculture. Fields have become very dry, and crops were showing stress by midday. Corn was finishing and drying down for harvest. Sorghum had mostly headed out, and diminished yields were expected. High temperatures significantly stressed the cotton crop, especially the earlier crop that was loaded with bolls or in peak bloom. Haygrazer had headed out. Healthy melon harvests continued. Pastures were drying up, and livestock were losing condition despite supplementation. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 12, 2025

Conditions in South Texas were hot and extremely humid with periodic showers. Topsoil and subsoil conditions were very poor in some areas. Fieldwork for strawberries continued, and vegetable producers harvested squash and okra. A few late-planted grain sorghum fields should be harvested over the week. Most cotton was harvested, but some fields were still blooming and progressing under irrigation. Sunflowers were almost ready for harvest, and some producers were preparing fields for fall vegetable planting. Cabbage conditions were fair. Pecan trees looked green, but another low production year was anticipated. Peanut crops continued to progress under irrigation. Sesame harvest continued with above-average yields reported. Range and pasture conditions declined, and some counties implemented burn bans. Some livestock producers were culling herds and providing supplemental feed to maintain good body condition scores. Beef cattle prices remained high, and supplies remained low. Wildlife were in good condition overall, with deer producers providing supplemental feed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 26, 2025 Conditions in South Texas were hot and dry. Temperature highs were above 100 degrees in some counties. The high temperatures and dry conditions were beginning to impact all crops. Corn, sunflower and sorghum harvests wrapped up and several fields of sorghum were made into hay. Hay producers continued to make hay. Fieldwork for strawberries continued. Vegetable producers continued with a slow harvest. Okra was doing fair. Irrigation in citrus orchards continued. Peanut crops continued to progress under irrigation and were in the pegging stage. Cotton fields were showing signs of stress due to extreme heat but holding up under irrigation as bolls were opening. Pasture and range conditions continued to decline with lack of rainfall. Livestock were in good condition, but supplemental feeding was necessary. Local livestock markets continued to offer average volumes with strong prices for all classes of beef cattle. Ranchers were busy weaning and selling late-winter and spring calves and wrapping up baling hay. Wildlife producers were preparing for hunting season. Falcon Lake levels remained low. Some producers were providing water to ponds for cattle and wildlife. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 12, 2025

Cooler temperatures arrived in Southwest Texas. High winds were reported in the middle of the week, but damage was minimal. Precipitation averaged 1 inch for the week, and soil moisture was good. Sorghum harvest was completed, and corn harvest was wrapping up. Other row crops were being harvested as well. Pecan crops looked good, but more rain was needed for the nuts to fill. Elevated temperatures continued to stress pastures and rangelands, and all hay work was at a standstill. Supplemental feeding of livestock resumed, and livestock markets were steady. Breeding season should begin soon. Deer and other wildlife were in mostly good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 26, 2025 Hot and dry weather continued in Southwest Texas with some spotty showers reported. Temperatures reached 100 degrees on several days. The heat and wind have dried out topsoil. Corn and sorghum harvests continued with below average yields reported. Hay harvest continued. Some producers were preparing for fall planting season. Webworm nests began to show in trees and pecan orchards, but pest loads appeared light so far. Overall, pecans were still green and developing well. The hot, dry conditions led to declines in grasses, and many cattle herds were being fed hay and supplemental feed. Livestock remained in fair to good condition. Livestock producers were shipping some spring calves to the sale barn to take advantage of the current high prices. Livestock were grazing but seeking shade and water. Cattle producers were being advised to reduce stocking rates as much as possible to save forage. Acorn crops still looked good. Wildlife was showing some signs of stress due to declining conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 12, 2025

The fire danger was increasing in New Hampshire with fires across the eastern part of the state from the North Country to the Seacoast. State fire safety officials urged the public to be cautious before striking a match and checking in with the local fire department. New Hampshire Public Radio (Concord, N.H.), Aug 29, 2025 New Hampshire fire departments were asking the public to exercise caution with all fires outdoors as the wildfire danger was rising. Rainfall in much of the state has been about half of normal since the middle of June. Concord Monitor (N.H.), Aug 8, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of a marginal severe threat will be possible early this evening across parts of eastern Colorado and from north-central Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Eastern Colorado... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the central Rockies with a large plume of moisture extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure, associated with a large post-frontal airmass, is located over much of the central and eastern U.S. Along the western edge of the airmass, an upslope flow regime is present over the central High Plains. Relatively isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in eastern Colorado near an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This suggest the environment could support a marginal severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. ...North-central/Northeast Texas/Northern Louisiana... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave trough appears to be moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the shortwave over northern Louisiana, extending westward along a front into northeast and north-central Texas. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Near the front, the 00Z soundings at Fort Worth and Shreveport have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with steep low-level lapse rates. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts early this evening. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of a marginal severe threat will be possible early this evening across parts of eastern Colorado and from north-central Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Eastern Colorado... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the central Rockies with a large plume of moisture extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure, associated with a large post-frontal airmass, is located over much of the central and eastern U.S. Along the western edge of the airmass, an upslope flow regime is present over the central High Plains. Relatively isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in eastern Colorado near an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This suggest the environment could support a marginal severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. ...North-central/Northeast Texas/Northern Louisiana... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave trough appears to be moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the shortwave over northern Louisiana, extending westward along a front into northeast and north-central Texas. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Near the front, the 00Z soundings at Fort Worth and Shreveport have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with steep low-level lapse rates. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts early this evening. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/29/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282329
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend while the
system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the central
to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph offshore
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

Some domestic wells were running dry in the Lolo Creek watershed. The mountain snowpack melted quickly, leaving little water to keep the stream flowing through the summer. Irrigators needed water for hay and livestock. Some people continued to water their dry lawns, drawing down the aquifer. Missoula Current (Mont.), Aug 28, 2025

Bears have been more of a problem than usual in La Plata County this summer because the area was in drought, which reduced the amount of natural food available for the bruins, so they wandered into inhabited areas in search of food. Experts also note a mix of environmental factors, inefficient bear-management plans, funding cuts and uninformed residents and visitors as reasons for the increase. The Cortez Journal (Colo.), Aug 28, 2025