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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this forecast update. Nevertheless, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon due to dry/breezy conditions across portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin. However, these conditions are forecast to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area - especially considering fuels are only marginally receptive across much of these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Central/Southern High Plains/Great Plains vicinity... An upper ridge will be centered over the southern/central Rockies on Saturday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to top the ridge and move across the High Plains into the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. This will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow atop weak low-level winds, resulting in around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Latest forecast guidance indicates a weak surface low over NE and another weak low over the TX/OK Panhandles by late afternoon. A cold front will extend from central NE into western KS and then northeast NM. Ahead of the front and surface lows, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from central NE/KS southwestward into western OK/TX and eastern NM. Given the overall marginal thermodynamic and kinematic space, transient supercells and multi-cell clusters will be possible, with gusty winds and sub-severe hail most probable in stronger convection. Strong storms may be most likely across parts of eastern NM into western TX where stronger heating is expected. With time, clustering may result in some upscale growth into a forward propagating MCS during the evening/nighttime hours. However, severe potential still appears limited/uncertain, precluding probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Central/Southern High Plains/Great Plains vicinity... An upper ridge will be centered over the southern/central Rockies on Saturday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to top the ridge and move across the High Plains into the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. This will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow atop weak low-level winds, resulting in around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Latest forecast guidance indicates a weak surface low over NE and another weak low over the TX/OK Panhandles by late afternoon. A cold front will extend from central NE into western KS and then northeast NM. Ahead of the front and surface lows, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from central NE/KS southwestward into western OK/TX and eastern NM. Given the overall marginal thermodynamic and kinematic space, transient supercells and multi-cell clusters will be possible, with gusty winds and sub-severe hail most probable in stronger convection. Strong storms may be most likely across parts of eastern NM into western TX where stronger heating is expected. With time, clustering may result in some upscale growth into a forward propagating MCS during the evening/nighttime hours. However, severe potential still appears limited/uncertain, precluding probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Central/Southern High Plains/Great Plains vicinity... An upper ridge will be centered over the southern/central Rockies on Saturday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to top the ridge and move across the High Plains into the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. This will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow atop weak low-level winds, resulting in around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Latest forecast guidance indicates a weak surface low over NE and another weak low over the TX/OK Panhandles by late afternoon. A cold front will extend from central NE into western KS and then northeast NM. Ahead of the front and surface lows, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from central NE/KS southwestward into western OK/TX and eastern NM. Given the overall marginal thermodynamic and kinematic space, transient supercells and multi-cell clusters will be possible, with gusty winds and sub-severe hail most probable in stronger convection. Strong storms may be most likely across parts of eastern NM into western TX where stronger heating is expected. With time, clustering may result in some upscale growth into a forward propagating MCS during the evening/nighttime hours. However, severe potential still appears limited/uncertain, precluding probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Central/Southern High Plains/Great Plains vicinity... An upper ridge will be centered over the southern/central Rockies on Saturday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to top the ridge and move across the High Plains into the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. This will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow atop weak low-level winds, resulting in around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Latest forecast guidance indicates a weak surface low over NE and another weak low over the TX/OK Panhandles by late afternoon. A cold front will extend from central NE into western KS and then northeast NM. Ahead of the front and surface lows, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from central NE/KS southwestward into western OK/TX and eastern NM. Given the overall marginal thermodynamic and kinematic space, transient supercells and multi-cell clusters will be possible, with gusty winds and sub-severe hail most probable in stronger convection. Strong storms may be most likely across parts of eastern NM into western TX where stronger heating is expected. With time, clustering may result in some upscale growth into a forward propagating MCS during the evening/nighttime hours. However, severe potential still appears limited/uncertain, precluding probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Central/Southern High Plains/Great Plains vicinity... An upper ridge will be centered over the southern/central Rockies on Saturday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to top the ridge and move across the High Plains into the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. This will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow atop weak low-level winds, resulting in around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Latest forecast guidance indicates a weak surface low over NE and another weak low over the TX/OK Panhandles by late afternoon. A cold front will extend from central NE into western KS and then northeast NM. Ahead of the front and surface lows, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from central NE/KS southwestward into western OK/TX and eastern NM. Given the overall marginal thermodynamic and kinematic space, transient supercells and multi-cell clusters will be possible, with gusty winds and sub-severe hail most probable in stronger convection. Strong storms may be most likely across parts of eastern NM into western TX where stronger heating is expected. With time, clustering may result in some upscale growth into a forward propagating MCS during the evening/nighttime hours. However, severe potential still appears limited/uncertain, precluding probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more