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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly mid-level flow regime will become established across the central U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today, but any severe potential should remain low. ...DISCUSSION... Flow at mid-levels will remain northwesterly over the top of a moist airmass today in the southern and central Plains. A weak upslope flow regime will be in place to the east of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this airmass, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Isolated storms may form near the surface trough and instability axis, with increased convective coverage further to the east in the less unstable air. A few strong storms will be possible in areas where convection is co-located with maximized instability. However, lapse rates will be weak suggesting that the severe potential will remain low in the southern and central Plains today. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today, but any severe potential should remain low. ...DISCUSSION... Flow at mid-levels will remain northwesterly over the top of a moist airmass today in the southern and central Plains. A weak upslope flow regime will be in place to the east of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this airmass, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Isolated storms may form near the surface trough and instability axis, with increased convective coverage further to the east in the less unstable air. A few strong storms will be possible in areas where convection is co-located with maximized instability. However, lapse rates will be weak suggesting that the severe potential will remain low in the southern and central Plains today. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today, but any severe potential should remain low. ...DISCUSSION... Flow at mid-levels will remain northwesterly over the top of a moist airmass today in the southern and central Plains. A weak upslope flow regime will be in place to the east of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this airmass, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Isolated storms may form near the surface trough and instability axis, with increased convective coverage further to the east in the less unstable air. A few strong storms will be possible in areas where convection is co-located with maximized instability. However, lapse rates will be weak suggesting that the severe potential will remain low in the southern and central Plains today. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today, but any severe potential should remain low. ...DISCUSSION... Flow at mid-levels will remain northwesterly over the top of a moist airmass today in the southern and central Plains. A weak upslope flow regime will be in place to the east of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this airmass, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Isolated storms may form near the surface trough and instability axis, with increased convective coverage further to the east in the less unstable air. A few strong storms will be possible in areas where convection is co-located with maximized instability. However, lapse rates will be weak suggesting that the severe potential will remain low in the southern and central Plains today. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/30/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP93):
An area of low pressure located about 800 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while moving
westward at around 10 mph across the western part of the eastern
Pacific basin. The system could cross into the central Pacific basin
late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low
pressure could form from this system over the weekend or early next
week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of
next week while moving generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2023 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604... Valid 300209Z - 300415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds may accompany storms as they propagate southeast this evening. DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters persist this evening across the High Plains from northwest KS into east central NM. This activity appears to be aided by a short-wave trough that is flattening the ridge over CO. 00z soundings from both AMA and DDC exhibited around 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates, and more than adequate shear for maintaining these clusters as they propagate southeast. While large-scale support will continue to encourage some longevity, buoyancy is not particularly strong, especially given the weak low-level inflow. Gusty winds are the main concern with these storms as they move southeast, but a new watch is not currently anticipated downstream. ..Darrow.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35020341 36250183 37090193 37670288 38750140 36190105 34760273 35020341 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TCC TO 35 SSE DHT. ..SPC..08/30/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC117-359-300440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEAF SMITH OLDHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 604 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 292100Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Far Southwest Kansas Northeast New Mexico Western and Central Oklahoma Panhandle Western Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms across northeast NM and southeast CO are expected to continue through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching the western TX and OK Panhandles. Additional storms are possible near the southern CO/KS border. The environment supports large hail and isolated damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Lamar CO to 15 miles east southeast of Tucumcari NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE LVS TO 30 NE DHT TO 20 SSW EHA TO 10 WSW EHA TO 5 E LHX TO 40 NW LAA. ..SPC..08/30/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-099-300240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-300240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC021-037-047-059-300240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE LVS TO 30 NE DHT TO 20 SSW EHA TO 10 WSW EHA TO 5 E LHX TO 40 NW LAA. ..SPC..08/30/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-099-300240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-300240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC021-037-047-059-300240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION Read more