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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

MD 0015 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...Portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 052312Z - 060415Z SUMMARY...Additional freezing rain, moderate to heavy at times, is possible through about midnight to 1 AM EST. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain continues to be observed in portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Continued ascent from low-level warm advection and the approach of the upstream trough will promote continued precipitation into this evening. Regional radar shows some heavier pockets of precipitation moving eastward from western Kentucky/southern Indiana. Dual-pol radar and surface observations indicate that a transition to snow is roughly along the Ohio River and should remain in that general vicinity. By midnight to 1 AM EST, weakening ascent and drier air moving in aloft will likely begin to limit overall precipitation rates and potential for ice accumulations. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38158726 38648664 38558409 38218279 37848256 37628298 37548379 37548469 37768671 37938710 38158726 Read more

MD 0016 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 2... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0602 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of central Louisiana...much of Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 2... Valid 060002Z - 060200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado or two remains possible across the watch area, along with locally damaging winds. DISCUSSION...A relatively wide squall line with embedded cells extends from northeast MS into central LA as of 00Z. Gusty southerly winds continue to bring warming northward ahead of the line, with the instability/theta-e axis roughly from south-central LA to near Jackson, MS. The warm front remains draped from eastern MS into southwest AL. Shear profiles remain strong just ahead of the cold front, with effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2. Stronger low-level shear exists farther east into northeast MS/AL/TN, but the air mass remains stable for surface-based parcels at this time. Hodographs do remain quite favorable for supercells and tornadoes, given a discrete cell and/or stronger core within the line. Otherwise, given the relatively poor condition of the air mass even over the northern Gulf of Mexico (where dewpoints are only in the low to mid 60s F), it does not appear that appreciable instability will be able to develop very far east of the existing watch, at least over the next few hours. As such, an addition watch is not expected, but surface trends will continue to be monitored. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30589275 31539145 32729026 33978934 34088889 33758854 32848825 31968842 31118925 30789078 30389222 30349269 30589275 Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFT TO 50 NNE LFT TO 20 SE HEZ TO 50 ENE HEZ TO 55 S GWO TO 20 WNW CBM TO 15 SE TUP TO 30 NE TUP. ..JEWELL..01/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LCH...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-077-091-097-121-125-060240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-019-023-025-029-037-049-061-063-065-069-075-077-079- 085-087-089-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159- 060240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFT TO 50 NNE LFT TO 20 SE HEZ TO 50 ENE HEZ TO 55 S GWO TO 20 WNW CBM TO 15 SE TUP TO 30 NE TUP. ..JEWELL..01/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LCH...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-077-091-097-121-125-060240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-019-023-025-029-037-049-061-063-065-069-075-077-079- 085-087-089-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159- 060240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFT TO 50 NNE LFT TO 20 SE HEZ TO 50 ENE HEZ TO 55 S GWO TO 20 WNW CBM TO 15 SE TUP TO 30 NE TUP. ..JEWELL..01/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LCH...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-077-091-097-121-125-060240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-019-023-025-029-037-049-061-063-065-069-075-077-079- 085-087-089-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159- 060240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFT TO 50 NNE LFT TO 20 SE HEZ TO 50 ENE HEZ TO 55 S GWO TO 20 WNW CBM TO 15 SE TUP TO 30 NE TUP. ..JEWELL..01/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LCH...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-077-091-097-121-125-060240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-019-023-025-029-037-049-061-063-065-069-075-077-079- 085-087-089-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159- 060240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE Read more

WW 2 TORNADO AR LA MS 051935Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Arkansas Eastern and Southeast Louisiana Southwest into Central and Northern Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop ahead a squall line this afternoon and evening. The more intense storms will likely be supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong. Scattered damaging gusts and a risk for a tornado will also accompany the squall line as it pushes east across the Watch area this afternoon through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Oxford MS to 75 miles south southeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more