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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025 Read more

MD 0021 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN GA INTO FAR NORTHERN FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0917 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Areas affected...southern GA into far northern FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061517Z - 061645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may pose a risk for a strong wind gust or brief tornado through early afternoon. Overall risk is expected to remain low, and a watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection is currently ongoing across southern GA into north FL. Recently, occasional cyclonic shear has been noted with cells over southern GA. The VWP from KVAX shows enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs, supported by 1-2 km flow around 50-60 kt. Instability remains a limiting factor, with regional 12z RAOBs showing poor lapse rates. Additionally, boundary-layer moisture is rather unimpressive, with dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Nevertheless, even weak low-level instability could be sufficient in this high shear environment to allow for a sporadic strong gust or perhaps a brief tornado. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited/conditional through the afternoon. ..Leitman/Smith.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31458385 31378228 30928192 30478202 30338247 30278308 30388370 30638396 30928406 31138407 31458385 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

MD 0020 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Areas affected...southern Virginia and far northern North Carolina Mountains Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 060744Z - 061245Z SUMMARY...Moderate freezing rain is expected to expand across southern Virginia and the northern North Carolina mountains early this morning. DISCUSSION...Temperatures are in the upper 20s to near 30 across much of southern Virginia this morning. Some snow is occurring across central Virginia where the thermodynamic column remains below freezing, but the 0C 700mb isotherm, currently located near or just south of Roanoke at 07Z will expand north amid strong warm air advection and a strengthening low-level jet. This will result in sleet or freezing rain across much of southern Virginia within the next few hours. In addition, strong isentropic lift and additional upper-level ascent will support moderate precipitation across this region for the next 6 hours with significant ice accretion likely for much of the period. Moderating temperatures may limit ice accumulation across far southern Virginia with the greatest accumulation from near Roanoke to Lynchburg to Lexington where upper 20s temperatures are most likely to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 38367972 38237800 38127668 37917617 37257615 36947676 36727839 36377971 36178072 36078128 36108164 36518166 37078166 37708078 38367972 Read more

MD 0019 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA
Mesoscale Discussion 0019 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Areas affected...eastern West Virginia and northern Virginia into the DelMarVa Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 060712Z - 061215Z SUMMARY...1+ inch per hour snowfall rates are expected early this morning. DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to heavy snow has developed across northern Virginia amid strong isentropic ascent and frontogenesis early this morning in response to a strengthening low-level jet. Evidence of this can be seen on the FCX VWP where 1.5 km winds have strengthened from 50 to 65 knots in the last 90 minutes. These conditions favorable for heavy snowfall are expected to shift east through the early morning hours with the expanding low-level jet, and heavier snowfall rates expected to impact the DelMarVa within the next few hours. Maximum snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RLX... LAT...LON 38567965 39307882 39347660 39297587 39027527 38797500 38387499 38047513 38227688 38307841 38287891 38397950 38467970 38567965 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more