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MD 0017 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southern Ohio into northern West Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 060339Z - 060745Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow in the vicinity of Wilmington, OH will spread eastward into West Virginia tonight. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour possible. DISCUSSION...Strong ascent from a potent 850 mb jet as well as an approaching shortwave trough will promote efficient dendritic growth and snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour tonight. Recent observation from Lebanon, OH in conjunction with KILN radar data suggest moderate snow with embedded heavier pockets is occurring. Snowfall is primarily focused north of the Ohio River (per KILN dual-pol data) and the expectation is for that to continue. These heavier snowfall rates will eventually shift eastward into West Virginia. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 39468449 39698441 39988331 39788046 39687918 39257873 38737907 38508019 38618173 38888324 39268445 39308458 39468449 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more