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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the southeastern part of the continental U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses southeastward across the central states. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be in place over much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the southeastern part of the continental U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses southeastward across the central states. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be in place over much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the southeastern part of the continental U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses southeastward across the central states. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be in place over much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the southeastern part of the continental U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses southeastward across the central states. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be in place over much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the southeastern part of the continental U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses southeastward across the central states. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be in place over much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the southeastern part of the continental U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses southeastward across the central states. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be in place over much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

MD 0018 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0018 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060523Z - 060800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong storms, perhaps isolated severe, may affect parts of the Florida Panhandle early tonight. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Southerly low-level winds persist well ahead of the cold front which now extends from central AL into southeast LA. Surface temperatures and dewpoints are stable or slowly rising along the Gulf Coast, with offshore observations indicating a theta-e plume nosing toward the area. A north-south line of thunderstorms has developed offshore along the eastern periphery of the instability plume, with northern cells likely to affect the coast soon. Shear profiles favor supercells, and waterspouts or brief tornadoes may occur. A watch is not anticipated at this time due to the limited coastal area most likely to be affected. However, surface observations and storm trends will need to be monitored over the next several hours for possible small-scale tornado risk area as shear profiles remain impressively strong. ..Jewell/Kerr.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30348694 30498691 30718684 30928647 30768576 30488529 30028500 29678505 29628536 29968561 30218607 30328663 30348694 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more