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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE UTS TO 35 NW POE TO 20 WNW MLU TO 50 N GLH. ..LEITMAN..01/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-041-043-052140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC003-011-021-043-049-059-067-069-073-079-085-111-115-127- 052140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES SABINE UNION VERNON WINN TXC199-241-291-351-403-457-052140- TX Read more

MD 0013 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 2... FOR FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...far northeast Louisiana into west-central MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 2... Valid 052002Z - 052130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential appears to be increasing across far northeast Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. DISCUSSION...A favorable environment for increased severe activity is developing across northeast LA into adjacent portions of west-central MS this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to low 70s amid cloud breaks, and surface dewpoints are in the 62-66 F range. This is allowing for some greater destabilization within an area of strong surface pressure falls (around 4 mb the past 2 hours) and greater low-level confluence. Semi-discrete convection ongoing in this area, as well as deepening convection moving into this region from central LA, may pose a greater tornado risk over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... LAT...LON 33139146 33349107 33269078 33069053 32769046 32259049 31859083 31839139 31909176 32049192 32319194 32669169 32759165 33139146 Read more

MD 0010 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN...CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...FAR SOUTHWEST WV...AND FAR WESTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0010 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...Portions of southern IN...central/eastern KY...far southwest WV...and far western VA Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 051658Z - 052130Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, with 1-1.5 in/hr rates, will gradually transition to sleet and freezing rain through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar data depicts an expansive swath of moderate to heavy snow shifting/expanding north-northeastward across the OH River Valley this afternoon -- generally focused within the warm-advection wing of a deepening low-level cyclone shifting eastward over the Ozarks. The 12Z ILN sounding showed a cold air mass entrenched across the region, with an antecedent layer of dry air from the surface to near 700 mb. While this dry layer will limit precipitation intensity/rates with northward extent in the near-term, forecast soundings show moistening from south to north -- aided by strengthening frontogenetic forcing for ascent. As a result, areas of heavy snow with 1-1.5 in/hr rates are expected through at least 19Z. At that time, the low-level warm advection plume -- evident in regional VWP data over TN -- will expand northward and strengthen across KY. The associated warm nose will support a gradual south-to-north transition from moderate/heavy snow to sleet and eventually freezing rain. The strong/focused ascent and deep cold/saturated air mass will continue to favor moderate to heavy mixed precipitation rates. ..Weinman.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 37878624 38248672 38728646 38958571 38878465 37928196 37328149 36848192 36788359 36938433 37188479 37878624 Read more

MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Louisiana into Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051909Z - 052045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through the afternoon across eastern Louisiana into Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible into this evening. DISCUSSION...The warm sector is continuing to expand north and east across the Lower Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. Mid-60s F surface dewpoints are now evident across southwest MS, and as far north as far southwest AR, with cloud breaks evident in visible satellite imagery. Some continued moistening is expected with north and east extent into late afternoon/evening ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. The VWP at KDGX shows increasing low to midlevel flow overspreading the region with the arrival of better low-level moisture. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs amid 0-1 km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2 suggest rotating storms (both with discrete convection and embedded within the QLCS) will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts. Of particular interest, an area from northeast LA into southwest and west-central MS shows overlaps between backed low-level flow, cloud breaks/stronger heating, mid-60s F dewpoints and stronger 2-hr pressure falls. This area could become a corridor of enhanced severe/tornado potential later this afternoon/early evening. While the northward extent of this potential is a bit uncertain and conditional on the northward progression of the warm sector, at least some severe potential is expected to extend into portions of northern MS. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next hour or so for portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Smith.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32459182 34209111 34399091 34439038 34368987 34048925 33578910 32688929 31408996 30659080 30369148 30359221 30479264 31089237 32459182 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more