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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more

MD 0011 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0011 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 1... Valid 051823Z - 052000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues. SUMMARY...Some increase in tornado potential is expected over the next 1-3 hours across portions of central and northern Louisiana and vicinity. DISCUSSION...Surface dewpoints have increased to the 64-67 F degree range in a relatively narrow corridor ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front and QLCS. Convection within this corridor is strengthening within a zone of modest low-level confluence. Isolated, semi-discrete cells have occasionally shown moderate low and midlevel rotation. If this convection can continue to mature as it moves through the moist axis and a zone of relatively higher 0-1 km SRH, tornado potential may increase the next couple of hours. Additionally, convection along the cold front may also intensify as it moves into this more favorable environment. ..Leitman.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31069257 30959282 30879302 30859321 30859355 30969374 31039384 31289384 31759356 32689271 32799246 32879210 32799188 32549182 32009200 31309235 31069257 Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..01/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LCH...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC107-052240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS LAC009-025-029-033-035-037-039-041-065-077-083-091-097-107-121- 123-125-052240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN MADISON POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY TENSAS WEST BATON ROUGE WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-037-043-049- 051-053-055-063-065-071-077-079-083-085-089-095-097-099-105-107- 113-115-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-147-149-151-155-157-159- 161-163-052240- Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0002 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0002 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW UTS TO 45 NE LFK TO 15 SSE ELD TO 10 ENE PBF. ..LEITMAN..01/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-011-017-041-043-079-139-052040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LINCOLN UNION LAC003-011-013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-067-069-073-079-081- 085-111-115-127-052040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WINN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...Discussion... In the wake of a strong cold front, over the western Atlantic and southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, cold/Arctic high pressure will continue expanding, to encompass much of the CONUS. In the Southwest, a mid-level short-wave trough -- on the western fringe of broad cyclonic flow covering most of the U.S. -- will gradually cut off from the main belt of flow and shift southward across the Lower Colorado River Valley toward/into northwestern Mexico. Beneath the cold pool associated with the evolving low, steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to meager CAPE, and possibly a couple of lightning strikes with scattered convection evolving overnight across central and southern Arizona. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected through the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more