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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; recent guidance and observations continue to suggest limited fire concerns for Sunday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0008 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...southeast Kansas...much of southern Missouri...far southern Illinois and western Kentucky Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 051356Z - 051800Z SUMMARY...A combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will become mostly rain by late morning. DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis shows a 1004 mb surface low in eastern Oklahoma with strong high pressure across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. Northeasterly surface winds resulting from this pressure gradient continue to supply low-level arctic air to areas north of the warm front from Kansas to the Lower Ohio Valley. Strong 850mb warm air advection has resulted in a thermal profile favorable for freezing rain across a broad region from southeast Kansas and across much of southern Missouri early this morning. The 0C 850mb line will continue to slowly shift north as strong warm air advection occurs ahead of the surface cyclone. This will result in snow changing to freezing rain in the next few hours across parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Areas across southern Missouri where temperatures are currently near freezing will likely rise above freezing this morning and bring an end to the freezing rain threat. However, for much of the area currently observing freezing rain, the threat will persist through at least midday. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... ICT... LAT...LON 38829303 38599513 38039660 37519705 37069705 37129616 37359499 37229349 36719201 36478977 36408809 36398705 36808590 37198570 38238808 38829303 Read more

WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..01/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-057-073-079-091-099- 103-139-051840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LINCOLN MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-067-069-073- 079-081-085-111-115-119-127-051840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE Read more

MD 0009 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of east Texas...southern Arkansas...and northwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051508Z - 051745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through midday. A risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and isolated small hail is expected from East Texas into northwest Louisiana and southern Arkansas. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has already developed this morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front extending across eastern OK into northeast and central Texas. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture is increasing on southerly low-level flow across the Sabine Valley. Surface dewpoints in the mid-60s F are noted in surface observations from just south of Shreveport southward to the Gulf coast. As a warm front draped across southwest AR into central LA lifts northward through early afternoon, destabilization is expected to increase with north and eastward extent. Regional VAD wind profiles and morning soundings show strong vertical shear is already in place, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt noted. Furthermore, enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs are evident, aided by an intense low-level jet near 50 kt overspreading the region. This will support organized, rotating storms capable of damaging gusts and tornadoes. Given the fairly quick eastward-moving cold front, linear forcing mechanisms will likely favor continued development of a QLCS just ahead of the front. Strong forcing and increasing low-level moisture will also aid in erosion of capping south of the warm front. Some potential exists for semi-discrete cell development ahead of the QLCS in low-level confluence bands. These bands are already evident in morning visible satellite imagery and region radar data. Isolated convection has already started to develop within these bands near the Sabine River. Any discrete supercells developing within the deeper moisture in the warm sector wedge will pose a risk for all severe hazards. Given current trends, a tornado watch will likely be needed within the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Smith.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31999566 31279609 30819613 30379598 30079530 30079472 30349403 31369258 32689210 33419220 33899288 34059359 33669450 32249550 31999566 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more