Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 5 15:56:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more