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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

MD 0005 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwest and south-central Kansas. Concerning...Blizzard Valid 051039Z - 051545Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions developing. DISCUSSION...A deformation band has started to organize across southwest Kansas and the OK/northern TX Panhandles. As this rotates eastward, heavy snow with 1+ inch per hour rates are expected. In addition, strong winds are already present (sustained 31 mph at KGBD on the 956Z observation) and are expected to strengthen further over the next 3 to 6 hours. Temperatures are in the mid teens which should result in less dense snow and accentuate visibility reductions amid strong winds. This will likely result in some blizzard conditions across parts of southwest and south-central Kansas through the morning. Freezing rain is falling across eastern portions of the MD area where warmer mid-level air has advected west to the north of the surface low. However, expect these areas to transition to snow after 13-14Z once the surface low moves farther east. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36990001 37430025 38430028 38700013 38789829 38609760 38119746 37449791 37019823 36990001 Read more

MD 0004 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...east-central Kansas...much of central Missouri...southern Illinois...and far western Kentucky. Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 050840Z - 051345Z SUMMARY...An expansive region of mostly freezing rain with some embedded thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the overnight period. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain and isolated sleet is being observed early this morning across a broad region from south-central Kansas to western Illinois and far western Kentucky. A broad region of isentropic ascent will support continued precipitation development along the frontal zone through the early morning hours. In addition, low-level cold air will continue to advect into the region with an area of arctic high pressure extending from the northern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures are currently above freezing across southeast Missouri and into western Kentucky. However, wet-bulb cooling should result in below freezing temperatures shortly after precipitation begins. Widespread lightning has been observed with the freezing rain activity across central/eastern Kansas over the last 1 to 2 hours. Forecast soundings show elevated instability which should continue to support the threat for thunderstorms through the early morning hours across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. These heavier precipitation cores may not be that efficient at ice accretion where temperatures are in the upper 20s to low 30s. However, where temperatures are in the mid 20s or colder, these heavier precipitation rates could result in substantial freezing rain accretion in a very short period. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37389685 37429731 37569759 37919757 38239713 38399651 38629522 38659105 38648996 38348878 37538768 36798709 36298712 36899163 37289338 37619566 37409657 37389685 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more